Yeah this is concerning 
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
interesting look, not "save to photos for future reference" worthy but signals a lot of mild ambient potential D6-onward.
Met1985
Member
This is all op run of the gfs. Have we not learned to not really trust the op runs of the models currently with the anomalous blocking that is taking place? We need to lean on the ensembles instead. Just my opinion but the damn gfs spits out a different solution every 6 hours. Color me skeptical.
Hypsometric
Member
Go back and re-read what I wrote. The first two were the GEFS and EPS trends over the past several runs. The GFS was shown as an example of the downstream effects of changes in the shorter term, where an op can be used with some skill.
Kinda got to wonder if we will briefly warm back up in that 20th timeframe before another shot of cold air drops down.
Met1985
Member
Ah ok I see. Well I still don't think the models have a good handle on this pattern but we could be completely shut out and be on the mild side. That would go along with Nina. But with the blocking over the top I just have my doubts but yeah we could get skunked.
Hypsometric
Member
Yeah I'm not saying it's a death knell, but it could delay it. There have been several pieces of information (including a post I shared from Allan Huffman yesterday with pattern analogs) along with all of the ensembles still showing support for an eventual favorable pattern setting up, but I never like to see that get delayed because inevitably another fly in the ointment will crop up and before you know it the window of opportunity starts to close.
I am nowhere near giving up, just having a little play by play discussion of what I'm seeing and it is very possible that as the energy is better sampled it could still trend back to a better solution. Just something to keep an eye on that could send us in a less favorable direction.
DadOfJax
Member
LOL.....The GFS has been the most inconsistent with solution output for this timeframe since it came into its forecast window. Using that as a basis for argument against the Arctic cold that is coming isn't going to age well IMO.
Wouldn’t shock me if 12z guidance takes a wrong turn if we continue to drop energy in the NW, I’m surprised that the EPS moved the trough more east faster considering it dropped energy in the NW more then any run at 00z. That pac trough is great to have here
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He literally shows the EPS and GEFS doing the same trend lol
It’s funny because I posted this as a response to you
We’re shortening wavelengths with this trend, worse trend in the PNW but the trough digging around the Aleutians is trending better which is the boot
it's not a death knell but it's a legit concern. it's not how i would draw things up. "el paso gets snow houston gets sleet" kinda pattern
griteater
Member
Good analysis in here Hypso / Fro, I agree. On the opposite end of the spectrum, here's a fail point that I'm watching for...we need the Pac Jet to extend else we stay in this Aleutian High / -PNA pattern. So, the combo of the big +EAsiaMtnTorq episode that is about to go down plus the W Pac tropical forcing are highly likely to extend the jet and move us toward -EPO/+PNA....but it's also possible that the jet extension is too powerful, and it plows west to east into Cali and wrecks the western ridging and we go mild with west to east flow. If this did happen, it would be temporary (i.e. we're not in a strong El Nino). And also, this could even be a good thing as, in a perfect world, we keep some western ridging in Canada combining with -AO/-NAO, and get southern stream into Cali > Texas providing the storm waves
But bottom line: the 'fundamentals' continue to look good going forward. We just have to prop our feet up and see how it all goes down. It's always a delicate balance, but I remain optimistic as ever
Met1985
Member
Yeah I agree this is a very complex and a very anomalous pattern that has already started. Fun to see it work out either way. Either we get lucky or we see a way we get screwed lol. This has been a fun pattern to track especially with all the modeling inconsistencies.
No bueno 
Aleutian trough deeper tho, we’re just shortening wavelengths as usual. 
Not sure how I missed this but it would seem like 6z GEFS has some significant agreement(at this time frame) on a christmas week winter storm for a good chunk of the carolinas but especially so focused E of 77.
Like I said before. It’s a good thing we have a strong Aleutian low entering the picture because otherwise, we’d be on our way to failing lol 
Hypsometric
Member
100% agree. It may be our saving grace because it is slowly becoming evident we are going to have to have something to kick the tpv east vs. having it consolidate there initially.
After what happened the past couple of years, I'm still nervous about that prospect but guidance is so far pretty consistent in showing that kick happening.