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Pattern Dazzling December

Tuesday morning still has potential for NE Ga and Upstate SC, imo. NAM thermal profiles are cold at 84hrs and sim radar looks decent. GFS also marginally conducive for snow Tuesday morning and precip shield is very close and trending better. High placement(albeit a weak high) is ideal for CAD as well.
 
rburrel2 said:
Tuesday morning still has potential for NE Ga and Upstate SC, imo. NAM thermal profiles are cold at 84hrs and sim radar looks decent. GFS also marginally conducive for snow Tuesday morning and precip shield is very close and trending better. High placement(albeit a weak high) is ideal for CAD as well.
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Latest icon run looks decent for it too
 
SD said:
Icon looks better over the top. Similar to last night's euro splits the difference between the far left and right looks
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That’s funny because I was thinking the 12z Euro splits the difference between the 12z Canadian and GFS.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯​

 
SD said:
Icon looks better over the top. Similar to last night's euro splits the difference between the far left and right looks
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Icon has pulled one or two rabbits out if it's hat and certainly shouldn't be discounted entirely. Just alot of model confusion currently and with all the energy dumping into this I suspect this will continue for another few days.
 
Personally I don't think the over amplified and left models are right and I don't think the gfs right. There should be energy drawn east under the block in Canada but I doubt it's enough for us to get a gfs like solution. The good thing is think if you still want to believe the gfs isn't backing down fully
 
SD said:
Personally in don't think the over amplified and left models are right and I don't think the gfs right. There should be energy drawn east under the block in Canada but I doubt it's enough for us to get a gfs like solution. The good thing is think if you still want to believe the gfs isn't backing down fully
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I'm all in on the GFS. ♥️♦️♠️♣️
 
SD said:
Personally in don't think the over amplified and left models are right and I don't think the gfs right. There should be energy drawn east under the block in Canada but I doubt it's enough for us to get a gfs like solution. The good thing is think if you still want to believe the gfs isn't backing down fully
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Yeah I agree with this. I’ve had a hard time believing that the low plows into the block like the Ukie has been trying to do. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up a Miller B with the low cutting up west of the Apps and the energy transfer occurring to a new low near the Delmarva peninsula
 
Chazwin said:
Yes it could… and I wouldn’t be shocked to see some CAD ice In favored area east of the mountains. It’s not exactly a warm airmass ahead of this system
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Yeah, all the talk of severe is honestly weird to me considering we're running sightly below normal temps through the whole week.

Another severe event for the deep south/gulf coast could happen but up here, not really.

Sent from my LM-Q730 using Tapatalk
 
jrips27 said:
Messy View attachment 127106
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Even though it’s the GFS, this solution is believable. Apps runner with a Miller B transfer to the north. CAD in place brings an ice event to NC Foothills and the escarpment and then a backside NWFS for the mountains and some mood flakes east.
 
Afternoon disco from FFC fwiw:

Run-to-run consistency, while improving, still differs by model and
between models. Weekend high pressure ridge will shift east of the
area by late Monday as wave traverses the area in near-zonal flow
aloft. Good rain chances are largely limited to middle and south
Georgia with rainfall amounts generally an inch or less and coming
to an end early Wednesday. In the wake of this mid-week event, large
long-wave trough ushers cold continental airmass into the central US
and by early Friday, both the 12Z GFS and Euro show deepening closed
cut off impacting the southeast US. The placement of the low will
greatly dictate the potential for winter precip, with the farther
south GFS showing a more favorable snow setup than the more northern
Euro. Given the wintry precip potential is at Day 7 with a
tremendous amount of uncertainty, at this time, little attention was
provided to detailed snow accumulations.

The more certain forecast concern is with the much-below-normal
temperature potential seems very likely with probabilistic guidance
suggesting 15-25 degree (or more) below normal temperatures and
single-digit wind chills by Friday.

In summary, below-normal, possible record-flirting temperatures look
likely late in the week, and while rain is expected Tuesday into
Wednesday, confidence in any winter precip after Wednesday is
extremely low. Stay tuned.
 
Chazwin said:
Even though it’s the GFS, this solution is believable. Apps runner with a Miller B transfer to the north. CAD in place brings an ice event to NC Foothills and the escarpment and then a backside NWFS for the mountains and some mood flakes east.
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Close to being big problems about 40 miles either side of a Greenville SC to MT Airy NC line, 1st due to ice and then high winds and cold. Could be 1 million plus without power in that zone if this plays out just right.
 
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