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Pattern Dazzling December

Verbatim the GFS would be an ice storm for CAD areas. GFS isn’t worth a flip with CAD so areas like the upstate and NE GA likely get big sleet and ZR with backside snow. Still the GFS digs the energy the most and even that run was furthest west compared to previous runs. You likely get something in the middle so I still think the western Carolinas north Georgia, north and eastern Alabama likely look the best for something if you blended the models. Odds are it’s ice with snow back towards the Ohio valley and apps.
 
Something of note, I think it will be interesting to watch the NAM as it starts to come into range of the different features that are at play here. I distinctly remember last January with our 2nd storm how a number of models were suppressing it way east but as features on the NAM were coming into range, it was clear that suppression was being overdone by globals. Of course here we’re dealing with something different, but it will be interesting to see how the NAM handles the energy
 
Rain Cold said:
GFS with a nice step to the other models now.
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It did, but it wouldn’t shock me to see the other globals take a step towards it now. We’re inside 7 days so the we’re inside the GFS’ complete uselessness stage. Also like I mentioned earlier, that solution actually made a decent amount of sense to me. It definitely not exactly what’s gonna happen, but something close to it or between it and the other globals is probably where it’s headed.
 
Snowfan said:
Considering how whacked up the pattern is right now I would be not surprised to see more changes.
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Yeah… that’s the thing. I mentioned earlier that right now it doesn’t appear to me that any of the models are handling things well right now. Heck the piece of energy that is supposed to touch of the 22-23rd storm is near the dateline.
 
bouncycorn said:
New MMFS run. Still showing an intense low to our north. 979.5mb!
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It’s probably not done at the surface let alone upper levels given what was about to stream in just north of Lake Superior and another streamer to the west. Very similar to the EC, kudos on the run, verbatim and extrapolating a bit the MMFS would fully mature around Buffalo, maybe western PA. Sucks for many but not all on this board. I’m somewhat in chase mode as the timing works out about perfect.

Would it be possible to increase the pressure scale (-) for subsequent runs so we can better resolve the actual track and strength?
 
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WeatherNC said:
It’s probably not done at the surface let alone upper levels given what was about to stream in just north of Lake Superior and another streamer to the west. Very similar to the EC, kudos on the run, verbatim and extrapolating a bit the MMFS would fully mature around Buffalo, maybe western PA. Sucks for many but not all on this board. I’m somewhat in chase mode as the timing works out about perfect.

Would it be possible to increase the pressure scale (-) for subsequent runs so we can better resolve the actual track and strength?
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Thanks. Here’s the total snowfall, crazy! I adjusted the color table and the white strip is still 24”+. .. 950mb low!!!
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bouncycorn said:
Thanks. Here’s the total snowfall, crazy! I adjusted the color table and the white strip is still 24”+. .. 969mb!
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This would be approaching superstorm 93 strength if it verified. It would still be a big event even if this is off by 20mb. It's obvious something big is coming up for much of the country east of the rockies.
 
bouncycorn said:
Thanks. Here’s the total snowfall, crazy! I adjusted the color table and the white strip is still 24”+. .. 969mb!
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Thank you, it's still hard to dial in the actual SLP based on color scale but I assume around Culpepper VA, similar to the 18z GFS. Apologize if already shared but can you link any details/specs on documentation running in house. My assumption is mesoscale with some type of extension, you can take the reply to Whamby don't want to add clutter here.

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JHS said:
This would be approaching superstorm 93 strength if it verified. It would still be a big event even if this is off by 20mb. It's obvious something big is coming up for much of the country east of the rockies.
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We are missing the sub-tropical jet, some play before and after but clearly phasing of the polar streams with robust vent setup to the north and east of wherever it occludes. Temper down the 93 strength, at this range verification likely splits the difference, not as extreme as day 7 progged.

It does though have the hallmarks of a major cyclone in the eastern half of US. All one has to do is look at what is modeled over the Bering Straight in about 48-72hrs, and work your way east splitting fine differences. Blocking in the Labrador Sea. It's a significant signal for a system and splitting differences between OH Valley, TN Valley, MA, NE, we are still a couple days out from better resolution.
 
I'm going to be honest I just don't feel it I feel like it's either the 23rd system or nothing and it's barely standing on legs. Others have gotten bashed for saying this but with that type of cold that is cold and dry and suppression city all day long. Yes you want the cold in the South but not that kind of cold most of the time it's a marginal setup with a 50/50 banana high. I'd seriously temper expectations honestly I don't think we see a significant storm until after the first of the year which is climatology around here so that's perfectly fine.
 
SNOWMANN said:
I'm going to be honest I just don't feel it I feel like it's either the 23rd system or nothing and it's barely standing on legs. Others have gotten bashed for saying this but with that type of cold that is cold and dry and suppression city all day long. Yes you want the cold in the South but not that kind of cold most of the time it's a marginal setup with a 50/50 banana high. I'd seriously temper expectations honestly I don't think we see a significant storm until after the first of the year which is climatology around here so that's perfectly fine.
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27th has much better odds of happening over the 23rd.
 
12z Euro was cold, but for my locations verbatim wouldn't be colder than the November cold spell. Turning north west of the apps really kills the cold push into NC and VA.

What's causing the upper low to head north in MO? I've only seen that kind of abrupt turn when theres an SER / WAR. But absent both of those, what's the driver?
 
I was thinking a bit more about this pattern, and to put things in perspective, not a lot has really changed.
  • Wave #1 never looked great for us in the first place (We just got sucked in with the GFS)
  • The cold air is still coming, and we're looking to have the coldest Christmas since 2000
  • It's looking probable that many of us have a rare below average December
  • Wave #2 still looks favorable from a global scale (it's 9-10 days, so the signal is not going to be extreme)
I know a lot of you, myself included, are victims of manic episodes every 6 hours during the cold season. However, take a step back because we could be dealing with a major -PNA or the PV being stuck over Alaska.
 
smast16 said:
12z Euro was cold, but for my locations verbatim wouldn't be colder than the November cold spell. Turning north west of the apps really kills the cold push into NC and VA.

What's causing the upper low to head north in MO? I've only seen that kind of abrupt turn when theres an SER / WAR. But absent both of those, what's the driver?
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You dont have a 50/50. The HP from the block gets between it and us while storm is digging down and without confluence it just cuts.

See the 18z gfs. That little red/yellowish tail cutting it off some. That caused gfs to do apps runner. On the euro that red tail is all the way down eastern seaboard of NE,MA to NC. Only saving grace on the gfs is how it shoots a piece of the northern stream vort east north of canadian line and it tries to Make up for the 50/50 low Euro and foreign guidance keep northern vort energy consolidated as it comes down stovepipe front range of Rockies,plains.
 

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EthanLovesWeather said:
DT from Wxrisk talking about the importance of the 50/50 / Southeast Canada low…
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Typical DT caving to a more favorable solution for his audience. For us in the SE two solutions work based on my experience, a TPV with confluence over southern Quebec for an undercut or a pseudo 50/50 displaced south of the benchmark position, generally its the same solution but can evolve differently for money shot. Right now our money should be on the TPV ejecting east through southern Canada. We have a GoM low at day 4-5, it's determination is still TBD. Does it fizzle, lerk, work its way slowly up the coast, regardless a coastal front should be in place along the eastern seaboard as the hammer drops.
 
Only hope we have is for the northern stream vort to shoot a piece due east as it comes down. Otherwise it will be Table setter storm #2. #1 was this past wednesdays 36 degree rain here. Think back about 7 days ago, when it went kapoof/cut on models and we said that would set the table for the next one (Dec 23).
 
I feel like as soon as this current storm up in the NE is gone, models will start to have a better handling of everything. Whether that leads to more wintry solutions or not remains to be unseen but I still think our current "tablesetter is mucking things up a little.
 
SimeonNC said:
I feel like as soon as this current storm up in the NE is gone, models will start to have a better handling of everything. Whether that leads to more wintry solutions or not remains to be unseen but I still think our current "tablesetter is mucking things up a little.
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Aka "get the first storm out of the way to see what the second one will do" on your Winter Storm Fail Bingo cards.
 
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