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Pattern Dazzling December

James spann not considering the GFS
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No one will ever pass the January 8th 1973 ice storm in Atlanta,,,It was a very compact isolated event basically right over the core of metro Atlanta,,,2 weeks without power,
 
SD said:
Not impossible then we are waiting for a turn to cold around new years. There are some not so subtle similarities to last December in over all evolution right now
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Agreed luckily the gfs is so useless not even the CPC aren’t even regarding it anymore.. and they know a heck of a lot more than anyone here lol
 
SD said:
We do really need the cutoff along the west coast to rex with the ridge or even retrograde under it and back toward AK. If it doesn't its likely to help entice the pv west and we end up with an ugly pattern. We need more 12z icon and less 18z gfs
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We also need more 12z ICON than 18z ICON. It appears there is a crucial period (seen in the loop) where energy moving around the Pacific ridge either consolidates with our big low that sets the Atlantic OR buckles the western ridge by digging southwest under the Pacific ridge and sets up a Rex block and wrecks the Pacific pattern.

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To get where we want to go, this may be the first crucial hurdle we have to clear (probably won't be the last).
 
AJ1013 said:
67F low with clear skies here
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think it’s what that cranky guy rain cold was talking about earlier. We like to see those higher heights through AK but the orientation is less than ideal. It extends diagonal out into the pacific instead of vertical up and down the west coast causing troughs to eject down into the west coast resulting in an unfavorable PNA. It’s a strange pattern. Something’s gonna give here soon on the modeling. I don’t think these things can all exist together unless they are only transient.
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What you’re saying is the angle of the cold is wrong? ?
TW
 
The GFS has been having 40 degree temperature swings imby from run to run since modeling started seeing the block. There's a reason why no actual forecaster is using it in the long range right now. It mishandles the beginning of its evolution and that's throwing the long range further and further off the deeper into the run you go.
 
Hypsometric said:
We also need more 12z ICON than 18z ICON. It appears there is a crucial period (seen in the loop) where energy moving around the Pacific ridge either consolidates with our big low that sets the Atlantic OR buckles the western ridge by digging southwest under the Pacific ridge and sets up a Rex block and wrecks the Pacific pattern.

View attachment 125457

To get where we want to go, this may be the first crucial hurdle we have to clear (probably won't be the last).
Click to expand...
You could have let me live happy and not shown the 18z Icon, I didn't look at it earlier now i feel like thishurdle-fail.gif
 
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