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Pattern Dazzling December

Euro doesn’t look very good if you’re wanting snow in the south/southeast during the 23rd system. This is getting into the range (120-168hr) where I’d like to see threats suppressed south so they have time to shift northwest (since they all do just about). Times ticking on this threat, but it’s not quite over yet.
 
Regardless of no snow for the SE and most of the Eastern Seaboard, it’s still a monster. 850 circulation extends from James Bay in ON to south Florida, and the Central Plains to Nova Scotia. Euro honestly did not know what to do with the SLP after it occluded and decoupled from the upper levels while they were still not down maturing around 168-174hrs.

C4BC89B0-1577-477E-A916-CF652D97ED66.png
 
KyloG said:
potential still there for 26th, probably gets smushed but not bad

View attachment 127067
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Honestly it’s not nearly as bad as I thought. Considering that the PV lobe normally trends weaker or northward with time, the threat is obviously still there in the weeds or delayed somewhat.
 
EthanLovesWeather said:
How many days or weeks does it take for the MJO to have an affect on the pattern, assuming that Euro chart was right and it were to shift into phase 4 or 5 or 6 around the 22nd & 23rd?
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I'm by no means an expert on the MJO, but this pattern seems to be largely guided by the influence of jet extension associated with the -EAMT, and the blocking retrogression that has been ongoing since November. Once those influences run their courses, the MJO will likely take on more influence in early January.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Personally you’re wrong. This storm will be a middle ground solution between GFS and CMC. You can berate me all you want if I’m wrong.
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You could be correct. Working in absolutes in meteorology is not the smart route to take though. This euro run is in the range of possibilities is all I’m saying
 
Ollie Williams said:
I'm by no means an expert on the MJO, but this pattern seems to be largely guided by the influence of jet extension associated with the -EAMT, and the blocking retrogression that has been ongoing since November. Once those influences run their courses, the MJO will likely take on more influence in early January.
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West pacific forcing/+AAM/+EAMT= jet extension we’re seeing.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
There so much energy rounding the western ridge. I’m not that worried honesty View attachment 127070
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I am concerned about the SE Canada vortex. With a stronger cutter, the models want it to exit poleward, rather than NE into the Atlantic. Without the positioning of the 50/50 low, any wave would come down neutrally rather than positively.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I am concerned about the SE Canada vortex. With a stronger cutter, the models want it to exit poleward, rather than NE into the Atlantic. Without the positioning of the 50/50 low, any wave would come down neutrally rather than positively.
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7-8 days of adjustments. We have not seen the final product by any stretch.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
WAA has done crazier things my friend.
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A strong enough system can do a lot of crazy things. If I remember right back in Feb 1989, it was 33 with snow where I am and at the same time Augusta GA was around 26-27 and Columbia was right around 30 with snow. IF that low goes that far north and is strong enough it can indeed be rain into Canada.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I am concerned about the SE Canada vortex. With a stronger cutter, the models want it to exit poleward, rather than NE into the Atlantic. Without the positioning of the 50/50 low, any wave would come down neutrally rather than positively.
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I wonder if our blocking will do work to keep it where it needs to be....I'm still waiting for the blocking to help us with something. Perhaps by this time we don't have a true- NAO anymore. 50/50 lows don't seem plentifully modeled.
 
goon said:
Can someone post this map but the for the great lakes ohio valley or a bigger version..I’m supposed to travel that way Wednesday and Thursday for the holidays and want to know if it will be good to go or not
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