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Pattern Dazzling December

Meh let’s see how the EPS is
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What’s the timeframe for NE Georgia and Upstate SC to start focusing in on having a chance at some winter weather? Asking those of you who really understand what’s going on. Will it be end of December or more likely January?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
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Looks like 2-4 C below normal across the SE. It's better than warm. I don't see anything at H5 to make me think it's going to drive the really cold air farther south.

The Euro op took a step back. The top of ridge out west rolled over, which, as expected, drives the trough axis back west. It is becoming clear that we're going to be fighting this for a long time. Sigh.

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Rain Cold said:
Looks like 2-4 C below normal across the SE. It's better than warm. I don't see anything at H5 to make me think it's going to drive the really cold air farther south.

The Euro op took a step back. The top of ridge out west rolled over, which, as expected, drives the trough axis back west. It is becoming clear that we're going to be fighting this for a long time. Sigh.

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I do not see a step back at all tbh we don’t want that really cold air diving south or we’re going to get cold and dry. This is a perfect set up to have the cold air close enough to get winter weather but far enough away to get a decent storm track.
 
Rain Cold said:
Looks like 2-4 C below normal across the SE. It's better than warm. I don't see anything at H5 to make me think it's going to drive the really cold air farther south.

The Euro op took a step back. The top of ridge out west rolled over, which, as expected, drives the trough axis back west. It is becoming clear that we're going to be fighting this for a long time. Sigh.

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That’s a steep ridge extending into and well north of AK. If we can shift that thing east a bit and keep it extended we could drive some vodka cold into the eastern half of NA.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I do not see a step back at all tbh we don’t want that really cold air diving south or we’re going to get cold and dry. This is a perfect set up to have the cold air close enough to get winter weather but far enough away to get a decent storm track.
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In the short term, I agree with you. In the D10 time frame, I don't want to already be just on the edge of the cold air.
 
Rain Cold said:
Looks like 2-4 C below normal across the SE. It's better than warm. I don't see anything at H5 to make me think it's going to drive the really cold air farther south.

The Euro op took a step back. The top of ridge out west rolled over, which, as expected, drives the trough axis back west. It is becoming clear that we're going to be fighting this for a long time. Sigh.

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Click to expand...
There is no way anything is clear right now if you actually look at the evolution. The precise track of the first system and potential interaction with the tpv piece diving south is going to make a world of difference for where we sit. The ICON and UKMET would be very favorable but we will just have to see how it all unfolds.

Edit: I’m in no way saying you won’t be correct, I just don’t see where it’s clear or even tilting one way or the other yet. It certainly could, but I hope it doesn’t.
 
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