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Pattern Dazzling December

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That’s a steep ridge extending into and well north of AK. If we can shift that thing east a bit and keep it extended we could drive some vodka cold into the eastern half of NA.
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We keep seeing it shown a bit too far west and rolling over. I like the concept of it, but it needs to get and remain better positioned and not just for a run or two.
 
Gonna have to wait 1 more model cycle before the nam and rgem get the table setter storm in their range. Right now Euro is coldest at surface here. Literally 33 to 34 degree rain. GFS op is really useless, back n forth, all over place.
 
NCSNOW said:
Gonna have to wait 1 more model cycle before the nam and rgem get the table setter storm in their range. Right now Euro is coldest at surface here. Literally 33 to 34 degree rain. GFS op is really useless, back n forth, all over place.
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The very end of the 18Z NAM run looked like it would be pretty cold too, but extrapolating the NAM is dangerous.
 
Stevo24 said:
What’s the timeframe for NE Georgia and Upstate SC to start focusing in on having a chance at some winter weather? Asking those of you who really understand what’s going on. Will it be end of December or more likely January?
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I personally think there is a chance of something in the 18-22nd timeframe. I’m basing that on ensemble guidance some, but especially on the teleconnections being favorable for a southeast winter storm
 
Looking for someone way more versed than me. If there is an Alaskan ridge present, why is the GFS so flat or zonal through the midwest to the east on the 18z? Maybe im missing something.
 
TWC says 44F and rain when I land in Tucson early afternoon Monday. Colder per models. Gonna be a little bit of a shock to the system after endless 70’s/80’s and sunshine here.
 
jeremyt said:
Looking for someone way more versed than me. If there is an Alaskan ridge present, why is the GFS so flat or zonal through the midwest to the east on the 18z? Maybe im missing something.
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I think it’s what that cranky guy rain cold was talking about earlier. We like to see those higher heights through AK but the orientation is less than ideal. It extends diagonal out into the pacific instead of vertical up and down the west coast causing troughs to eject down into the west coast resulting in an unfavorable PNA. It’s a strange pattern. Something’s gonna give here soon on the modeling. I don’t think these things can all exist together unless they are only transient.
 
jeremyt said:
Looking for someone way more versed than me. If there is an Alaskan ridge present, why is the GFS so flat or zonal through the midwest to the east on the 18z? Maybe im missing something.
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The EPO ridge up into Alaska has to be oriented right to dump the cold south and east. On the 18z is positive tilted and dumping in the west. The EPO is known to flex the southeast ridge. We either freeze or fail with it. The 18z shows how we can fail.
 
jeremyt said:
Thank you both for the replies, I always thought that ridging/warmer Alaska meant cooler in the east but to see the zonal flow through me off, still got a lot to learn I guess.
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A lot of times it does. It may this time as well. But really all it guarantees is cold will come to the lower 48 somewhere.
 
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