most of this east of the mountains comes from system #2 
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
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I just...
I'm really trying with storm two but there just doesnt seem to be much there on the ensembles. Last night, there was a really good QPF run but not really since.
I'm really trying with storm two but there just doesnt seem to be much there on the ensembles. Last night, there was a really good QPF run but not really since.
Latest MMFS run looks similar to the last, with a strong cutter.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is absolutely true. One underrated thing this subtle change in the pattern does, it taps into even more cold air & gives us an even bigger cold shot down the line, because more arctic air is getting dumped + ingested into the trough over the Rockies instead of getting sucked back into Alaska.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
While the signal might not be as strong as last night’s runs, it’s still there… still a good amount of members picking on something. More importantly climo says it’s more likely to happen for us than that first system. Now could it get suppressed? Sure but as others have said don’t get to worried about suppression this far out.
yeah i get it. the general outline of the ensembles show the fail point being the energy being a little to suppressed, not tilted enough, which are fixable issues to me and probably why the signal isn't that robust. i will say... i think if the euro ensembles don't perk up a little the second threat will begin to smell a little, nothing crazy, not like fish in a hot car, but enough
GoDuke
Member
I’ve never heard of this model before. Is this that French model? What does MMFS even stand for?
MMFS is a model made by bouncycorn and his friend. Here’s more info: https://mesoscaleforecast.com/
It’s my model, it stands for Mesoscale Model and Forecasting System.
Here’s some links with info and data:
mesoscaleforecast.com
data.mesoscaleforecast.com
olhausen
Member
Take a few degrees off some of the high temps and I could be looking at 7-9 days of below freezing temps. Im thinking 2018 was the last time it was that cold for that long. I remember all our streams and small lakes were frozen over.
January 2018 pics of frozen stream.
January 2018 pics of frozen stream.
Yep, Euro about to go to the route of the other models 
NCSNOW
Member
GFS is on an Island/ still
Good to be reaffirmed that the GFS is a bad model and not to get swept up in its nonsense that it spits out most of the time. I wish we invested more in our models were vastly becoming the worlds joke in the model community. Almost like trying to use the Korean model to prove a set up is going to happen :/
SnowNiner
Member
I think the difficulty we're current having for next week is everything looks northern stream dominate. Even with cold in place, every shortwave has to dig just right, not get suppressed, amp, phase, etc just right. So hard with that. I wish the energy next week came out of the baha in the stj and perhaps it would be a touch easier.
I think that may be the missing ingredient to this favorable period coming up.
I think that may be the missing ingredient to this favorable period coming up.
There’s a class a cave. I remember when I was being told I was stupid and
Should be blocked for posting the icon runs that had the energy further west, props to the UK/ICON, this look is def injecting more cold, can’t wait to see the front on this euro run move east
Should be blocked for posting the icon runs that had the energy further west, props to the UK/ICON, this look is def injecting more cold, can’t wait to see the front on this euro run move east
NCSNOW
Member
Euro has 1st storm: Its just a Nice Cold Rain unfortunately: Wheres a 50/50 lp when you need it
EthanLovesWeather
Member
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Something that should be noted is that the MJO is going to be making a run for phase 4 & 5 around the 23rd. The precipitation correlation with that should support a strong, very far inland runner, just like the Canadian and UKMET are indicating. Phase 8 or 1 would have been very much more supportive of the kind of storm the GFS has been spitting out.
No there is a way. This is why I tried to let people know that even in the best patterns we can miss. Because we live in the south and no matter how you slice it it’s hard to get it to snow down here. I still like the second opportunity but anyone who is expecting major winter storms needs to temper expectations so they don’t get their heart broken.
Goodness gracious the gradient along the front on the euro is stupid
That cold this run is insane. Holy ---- 
WXinCanton
Member
Holy Midwest Blizzard
Absolutely insane cold shot this run. Wow. This ain’t even far out 
NCSNOW
Member
- NAO doing wonders for the midwest.
My word it’s dropping temps 30F+ in less than six hours
John1122
Member
The Euro is, to say the least, inconsistent right now. Is it right with the cutter? Who knows. But it's swinging all over the place from run to run.
We're really not in phase 5. The MJO doesn't have any effect on this pattern
Hell of a storm for someone. Just probably won't be us 
EthanLovesWeather
Member
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I suppose if the Euro is right it might even support some wrap around moisture as snow showers making it south but that’s all we’d see from it.
SnowNiner
Member
Bring it, if it ain't going to snow, I want highs in the teens! Lol.
WXinCanton
Member
What a beast!!!
Holy ------- ---- 