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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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Arcc said:
Agree 100%. Italy just recently ramped up testing. For a while they were only testing the worst off.
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So, what does the testing issue mean as far as how the rapid increase in US cases compares to the rapid increase in Italy?
 
Jon said:
I see no evidence of any real expert saying there was community spread in a November in the US. That’s complete and utter BS. The genome of tested samples have been traced back to China. There would have been more antigenic drift than what is currently showing if it has been around that long. It’s just random folks brainstorming, no data supports that at all.
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With something that spreads so rapidly, if we were a month or two behind the 8ball (which there’s reason to believe we were since it was being covered up by the Chicoms) then this could most definitely have been in our backyard all winter long. I don’t think that being of this opinion is BS at all. It’s a real possibility. There’s a chance that the only thing testing is doing is showing something that has been here all along. I’m neutral at this point. Still prepared. But my mind is open to this possibility.
 
Jon said:
I see no evidence of any real expert saying there was community spread in a November in the US. That’s complete and utter BS. The genome of tested samples have been traced back to China. There would have been more antigenic drift than what is currently showing if it has been around that long. It’s just random folks brainstorming, no data supports that at all.
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Yea, I haven't found anything either.?

I'm not against idle speculation and even some unorthodox thinking. But I'm concerned the early onset theory is more grounded on hope than what the data suggests is the most likely outcome.
 
What happens if they start re-opening some of these US death cases over the winter and they find out people were dying with COVID-19 in December/January? What implications would that have?
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Yea, I haven't found anything either.?

I'm not against idle speculation and even some unorthodox thinking. But I'm concerned the early onset theory is more grounded on hope than what the data suggests is the most likely outcome.
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Well we do have a pretty good idea it was in Washington for 6+ weeks before the first confirmed case. This would also fit the timeline of it being in China 4-6 weeks earlier than first reported by the Chinese government.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
This is a thought my household explored recently. Because there was a sketchy virus going around not too long ago that my fiancé had as well as many others at her work. I had it to a lesser degree. My brother also had it and had pneumonia as well. I’m starting to lean on the belief that this thing might have circulated once already. Might be time to load the truck with some oversold stonks in the coming weeks if/when this becomes the consensus thinking. This could be why the current administration hasn’t seem worried all along. Maybe they know this thing has already made its rounds this past winter and they don’t want to admit it was missed. Maybe many of this winter’s “flu” deaths were actually from the virus. Something to consider as a real possibility imo.
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So many hypotheticals, not sure where to begin.

We aren’t even out of flu season. This flu season had an increased number of pediatric deaths, not to mention laboratory confirmed cases of flu A & B. To suggest it’s been the coronavirus instead of the flu is a little much. There’s no evidence it’s been here for 5 months or since last winter (lol) and most if not all experts would disagree with that theory.

During cold and flu season, pneumonia, coughs, flu negative fevers, are all normal and we see this every year in the pharmacy. I’ve seen nothing that leads me to believe people were coming in with unexplained illness. This has nothing on flu seasons of the past where we couldn’t keep cold-eze and zinc stocked...

It’s normal to think testing is lagging behind cases because it is...but that doesn’t mean we’ve all been sharing this since Nov-Dec. This week, starting Monday, many primary car doctors will get their first COVID tests in NC. I have heard of doctors speaking to me personally of unexplained flu negative fevers, but it’s only been very recently, like 1 week of time recently.


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
What happens if they start re-opening some of these US death cases over the winter and they find out people were dying with COVID-19 in December/January? What implications would that have?
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That would be extremely concerning, and support the theory.

But is it likely? Why wouldn't a suddenly higher death rate in flu symptoms among the elderly not raise flags? Think about all the travelling that goes on over the christmas holidays.

And if there wasn't a higher death rate noticeable among the elderly, then why did that happen here and not other countries, which are expres
 
Jon said:
So many hypotheticals, not sure where to begin.

We aren’t even out of flu season. This flu season had an increased number of pediatric deaths, not to mention laboratory confirmed cases of flu A & B. To suggest it’s been the coronavirus instead of the flu is a little much. There’s no evidence it’s been here for 5 months or since last winter (lol) and most if not all experts would disagree with that theory.

During cold and flu season, pneumonia, coughs, flu negative fevers, are all normal and we see this every year in the pharmacy. I’ve seen nothing that leads me to believe people were coming in with unexplained illness. This has nothing on flu seasons of the past where we couldn’t keep cold-eze and zinc stocked...

It’s normal to think testing is lagging behind cases because it is...but that doesn’t mean we’ve all been sharing this since Nov-Dec. This week, starting Monday, many primary car doctors will get their first COVID tests in NC. I have heard of doctors speaking to me personally of unexplained flu negative fevers, but it’s only been very recently, like 1 week of time recently.


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Meh. Yeah I wouldn’t say it’s the coronavirus “instead” of the flu. Just not sure I would completely write off the idea that maybe this thing has been circulating well before it was picked up by the media and various health organizations around the world.
 
Brick Tamland said:
This chart is really eye opening. We actually have more cases here compared to Italy at the same time period.

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We are still behind them at this rate with other numbers which is a little comforting at least

3/3 Italy
79 deaths
27 new deaths

3/14 USA
57 deaths
8 new deaths (8 daily new deaths is a maximum)


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Jon said:
So many hypotheticals, not sure where to begin.

We aren’t even out of flu season. This flu season had an increased number of pediatric deaths, not to mention laboratory confirmed cases of flu A & B. To suggest it’s been the coronavirus instead of the flu is a little much. There’s no evidence it’s been here for 5 months or since last winter (lol) and most if not all experts would disagree with that theory.

During cold and flu season, pneumonia, coughs, flu negative fevers, are all normal and we see this every year in the pharmacy. I’ve seen nothing that leads me to believe people were coming in with unexplained illness. This has nothing on flu seasons of the past where we couldn’t keep cold-eze and zinc stocked...

It’s normal to think testing is lagging behind cases because it is...but that doesn’t mean we’ve all been sharing this since Nov-Dec. This week, starting Monday, many primary car doctors will get their first COVID tests in NC. I have heard of doctors speaking to me personally of unexplained flu negative fevers, but it’s only been very recently, like 1 week of time recently.


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My daughters doctor is sending samples in from the cases that spiked his interest. This was middle of last week when we spoke to him so not sure how long before he would get results back.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I just got off the phone with my mom a few minutes ago.

The Food Lion nearby (this one takes a drive though unlike the Dollar General, although that was cleaned out 2 days after I said it was fine) is cleaned out. There's no toilet paper. They're trying Family Dollar but I'm kind of dubious they see anything there either.

They did, as an emergency alternative, pick up plain Kleenex.
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Just a little levity but true:
I'm good on TP but have accidentally run out. Take a piece of paper towel and roll it up in your hands until soft. Unroll and tear into preferred size. BOOM... Perfect TP. ?‍♂️ ? ?
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Yea, I haven't found anything either.?

I'm not against idle speculation and even some unorthodox thinking. But I'm concerned the early onset theory is more grounded on hope than what the data suggests is the most likely outcome.
Click to expand...

With the RO number so high we should have seen rapid expansion of cases much sooner than we are.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Meh. Yeah I wouldn’t say it’s the coronavirus “instead” of the flu. Just not sure I would completely write off the idea that maybe this thing has been circulating well before it was picked up by the media and various health organizations around the world.
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Luckily the genome of all the tests globally can be easily tracked once samples are taken and put in the database.


auspice

nextstrain.org nextstrain.org

This all suggests the first case being in Wuhan, China around Nov.

First case in US being antigenically identical to the first few cases in Wuhan, before any real drift could occur puts us at mid Jan for first US cases.

If you have something to share suggesting earlier introduction I’d love to see it because I’m not seeing anything to suggest that other than these posts


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snowlover91 said:
Well we do have a pretty good idea it was in Washington for 6+ weeks before the first confirmed case. This would also fit the timeline of it being in China 4-6 weeks earlier than first reported by the Chinese government.
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So why didn't we see a higher death rate in elderly starting after Christmas? Why did WA suddenly start having all these deaths in nursing homes?

If the virus is responsible for all of these anectodal stories we're hearing of people getting sick weeks ago and getting over it, why haven't we seen more nursing home deaths before a few weeks ago?

I mean, I get it. I would love this theory to be true, and that I don't have to worry as much about my mother in her seventies, or tens of my aunts and uncles, and that we're taking precautions for something that has already proliferated. But we have got to see more data first. And it would help if a disease expert came out in support of this theory of general population spread since December. Think of the career implications for the first expert that correctly predicted this was happening. I'm sure the rewards would be quite lucrative.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
So why didn't we see a higher death rate in elderly starting after Christmas? Why did WA suddenly start having all these deaths in nursing homes?

If the virus is responsible for all of these anectodal stories we're hearing of people getting sick weeks ago and getting over it, why haven't we seen more nursing home deaths before a few weeks ago?

I mean, I get it. I would love this theory to be true, and that I don't have to worry as much about my mother in her seventies, or tens of my aunts and uncles, and that we're taking precautions for something that has already proliferated. But we have got to see more data first. And it would help if a disease expert came out in support of this theory of general population spread since December. Think of the career implications for the first expert that correctly predicted this was happening. I'm sure the rewards would be quite lucrative.
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Yeah we need more data but I wouldn’t be surprised if this entered the US in early January or late December based on the China timeline and how they tried to cover it up. If I understand correctly, many of the coronavirus deaths are due to the pneumonia it causes? If so, it’s possible there have been some deaths in nursing homes attributed to pneumonia or the flu that actually were due to coronavirus but since it wasn’t known or expected in the US they simply didn’t test for it. I believe the CDC also mentioned a few flu cases were actually coronavirus and they would have to go back and analyze some of the data.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Meh. Yeah I wouldn’t say it’s the coronavirus “instead” of the flu. Just not sure I would completely write off the idea that maybe this thing has been circulating well before it was picked up by the media and various health organizations around the world.
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I'm not completely opposed to the idea, but even accounting for the very limited testing early on, almost all of the initial cases were of people who had just traveled in from an area where the virus was or were associated directly with someone who came from there.

If the theory that "the virus had been circulating for months and we just didn't know it because we hadn't been testing" holds water, wouldn't a significant portion of those early cases, that tested positive, be found to be of untraceable origin?

I don't mean to keep harping on this point/beating a dead horse, but if the long-circulating theory is correct, how does one account for this significant statistical improbability?

Also, in about every case, once testing starts, it isn't long until cases start "exploding" and medical facility get saturated. Given the degree of infectiousness of this virus, medical facilities would have been well saturated before now, I would think.
 
###### here is the one warning. If you disagree with someone move along . Getting into personal attacks and name calling will land you in timeout for 7 days . No warnings given , this is the warning . It’s not that difficult to have constructive conversation with differing opinions. ##########


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snowlover91 said:
Yeah we need more data but I wouldn’t be surprised if this entered the US in early January or late December based on the China timeline and how they tried to cover it up. If I understand correctly, many of the coronavirus deaths are due to the pneumonia it causes? If so, it’s possible there have been some deaths in nursing homes attributed to pneumonia or the flu that actually were due to coronavirus but since it wasn’t known or expected in the US they simply didn’t test for it. I believe the CDC also mentioned a few flu cases were actually coronavirus and they would have to go back and analyze some of the data.
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I think all of us likely agree on when it got here, but just disagree on the timeline of how it spread, and how much it spread once it got here up till now.

And dang it, if we had more testing now, then we'd know for sure. Until then, here we are speculating.
 
6498c7c54821b082823185a187cc713f.jpg


My Walmart bread aisle.


026ad290e4ea4df8adbeea48b000e8c7.jpg


Pasta aisle


b8139563b888e77f26d2ca8127df8aff.jpg


Ramen aisle


5542d2f7a2b00ae8c0d62209020a5a5c.jpg


Canned meats like spam etc


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Frozen processed chicken freezers
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I think all of us likely agree on when it got here, but just disagree on the timeline of how it spread, and how much it spread once it got here up till now.

And dang it, if we had more testing now, then we'd know for sure. Until then, here we are speculating.
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At this point it is what it is. We'll see in the next few weeks how well we prepared for it
 
tramadoc said:
6498c7c54821b082823185a187cc713f.jpg


My Walmart bread aisle.


026ad290e4ea4df8adbeea48b000e8c7.jpg


Pasta aisle


b8139563b888e77f26d2ca8127df8aff.jpg


Ramen aisle


5542d2f7a2b00ae8c0d62209020a5a5c.jpg


Canned meats like spam etc


2326ef6a798f27c84e03384475312748.jpg


Frozen processed chicken freezers
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Work at Harris teeter has been a living hell this week. I’ve already accepted my fate in that I will almost certainly contract the coronavirus at some point given how much exposure I have with customers.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Work at Harris teeter has been a living hell this week. I’ve already accepted my fate in that I will almost certainly contract the coronavirus at some point given how much exposure I have with customers.
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Just drove my forklift down to the loading dock to place some loads in staging and an over the road trucker was standing there coughing. Normally would never of noticed but now..... the shipping clerk was about to chase him down with lysol lol.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I think all of us likely agree on when it got here, but just disagree on the timeline of how it spread, and how much it spread once it got here up till now.

And dang it, if we had more testing now, then we'd know for sure. Until then, here we are speculating.
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Yeah more testing will definitely help and hopefully some research into these areas to find some answers. IMO if the data is correct about it starting in China around early to mid November then I would expect cases in the US to start roughly 4-6 weeks later, especially if their government was trying to cover things up.
 
Shaggy said:
Just drove my forklift down to the loading dock to place some loads in staging and an over the road trucker was standing there coughing. Normally would never of noticed but now..... the shipping clerk was about to chase him down with lysol lol.
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I was in Home Depot the other day and the lady at check out was wearing gloves. Another employee picked at her about it. I then piped up and said how I should start hacking and acting like I had a fever. She laughed and said she would spray me with Lysol.
 
I have asthma and sometimes have coughing spells. Does it worry me people will think I’m sick. Yes. It’s sad everyone flips out. Getting virus is not my concern. Chances are most of us will be exposed to it. If not this outbreak then we will the next one.
 
For those interested, this is the best website I've found for live tracking stats worldwide. Many countries have individual data markers you can track. It's easy to see the exponential growth in each country as the virus begins to spread. Pretty much only China and South Korea have been able to get a significant decline. Hopefully all of the other countries will be able to follow suit over the next few weeks, but it's easy to see why the CDC and WHO are always concerned with new outbreaks of viruses and diseases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 
Matthew70 said:
denver.cbslocal.com

‘Shut It Down’: Colorado Woman In Italy Issues Stark Warning On Coronavirus

From her home in Italy, a CU graduate and former Colorado resident has a harsh warning for Colorado residents: “Don’t do anything -- don’t go to the cinemas, stay home, shut it down.”
denver.cbslocal.com denver.cbslocal.com
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I think it's going to get much worse before it gets better. I love my neighbors but they're out shopping at the home depot like it's no big deal. Until it really hits the fan a lot of Americans just aren't going to take it serious. We see it with weather. I'm still reading, even in this thread, that it will probably blow over in 2 weeks even though all the science and data says the opposite. The answers and experiences are right in front of us. Maybe it's too difficult for some to believe it can happen here. I'm not sure why. My family is staying home as of this past Friday when school got cancelled. We've got no plans to leave for the next 7 days either. After that, we will reassess. But I doubt we go anywhere until we need a food pickup which would be several weeks away. We are "hunkered down Dawgs" like the late great Larry Munson would say.
 
I know Jon posted this yesterday, but these quotes are most interesting to me.

The statistics all show that they breed and survive longer when it's cold and dry," Myers said. "So, when it's warmer and more humid and there's a lot of sunshine, the statistics on all of the others show a virus is less lethal, it spreads less efficiently and less effectively among humans."
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This will be interesting to watch in the south as we warm up.

"It really doesn't have anything to do with the warmth, but it has to do with the length of the day and the exposure to sunlight, which inactivates the virus through UV light," Fair, who is an MSNBC science contributor, said during an appearance on the network. "We expect a dip in infections as we would see with the cold and flu in the spring and summer months.
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UV is a very effective for eliminating viruses including HIV. Wastewater plants really utilize it in the disinfection part of treatment.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/weat...virus-pathologist-says/ar-BB119VQo?li=BBnbfcL
 
Nerman said:
I think it's going to get much worse before it gets better. I love my neighbors but they're out shopping at the home depot like it's no big deal. Until it really hits the fan a lot of Americans just aren't going to take it serious. We see it with weather. I'm still reading, even in this thread, that it will probably blow over in 2 weeks even though all the science and data says the opposite. The answers and experiences are right in front of us. Maybe it's too difficult for some to believe it can happen here. I'm not sure why. My family is staying home as of this past Friday when school got cancelled. We've got no plans to leave for the next 7 days either. After that, we will reassess. But I doubt we go anywhere until we need a food pickup which would be several weeks away. We are "hunkered down Dawgs" like the late great Larry Munson would say.
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Buying my groceries at pickup, no desire to shop inside a store. Pick up has gotten quite busy, week + wait at Walmart.
 
Realistically this will blow over in the heat of summer. This virus won’t survive 90s and humidity


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