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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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Well it could be both. Warmer temps mean people go outside more, spend less time indoors touching everything and coughing all over each other, too. Even if the virus can still circulate in warmer temps doesn’t mean it’s doing so at a significant pace, it may still be a bit hindered. But hoping it will disappear is most likely false hope.

Yeah I agree I don’t think it will die off, it will definitely pick back up by fall and by then we’d really need a vaccine. We’re likely to have two preventative vaccines for flu seasons to come, which is wild. I just am not so sure it will be ready and mass produced. We just went through a shortage in the pharmacy for the senior flu shot, it was backordered for months even though there was high demand...hundreds of thousands of seniors had to get the regular flu shot, which put them at risk this year.

I’m deeply concerned about next season, what’s happening now and the rate at which it’s spreading is concerning...but come fall if there’s not a suitable vaccine, very large numbers of elderly will be at risk. I hope the more virulent strain can be contained to China and that the mild strain is the one we are seeing globally. If not, we should prepare for the worst come next fall. There will be vaccine constraints, just hope it doesn’t lead to panic.

To put it in perspective, we just placed our flu shot orders. GSK and other companies are already producing them for the 2020-21 season, and the strains were already decided on.


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Good point regarding indoor vs outdoor habits. I certainly hope so too &/or a new more virulent strain does not emerge. Even though CoV-19 really is nothing like it, it's hard not to think about to the Spanish Flu pandemic if we can't come up w/ a reliable vaccine by this coming fall. The second wave of the Spanish Flu was far more virulent/deadly than the first one.
 
I'm not really understanding the obsession with the fatality rate.

How so? I think the 3.4% number is highly misleading. It matters as to how deadly the virus is. Why wouldn’t you want to know the mortality rate? The seasonal flu is .1 % right? 1 in a 1000? So if covid19 is one is 1 in 100 or 1 in 500 or 1 on 50 it makes a difference. This is highly contagious so you can assume a ton of people end up with it. I’d like to know....
 
Well it could be both. Warmer temps mean people go outside more, spend less time indoors touching everything and coughing all over each other, too. Even if the virus can still circulate in warmer temps doesn’t mean it’s doing so at a significant pace, it may still be a bit hindered. But hoping it will disappear is most likely false hope.

Yeah I agree I don’t think it will die off, it will definitely pick back up by fall and by then we’d really need a vaccine. We’re likely to have two preventative vaccines for flu seasons to come, which is wild. I just am not so sure it will be ready and mass produced. We just went through a shortage in the pharmacy for the senior flu shot, it was backordered for months even though there was high demand...hundreds of thousands of seniors had to get the regular flu shot, which put them at risk this year.

I’m deeply concerned about next season, what’s happening now and the rate at which it’s spreading is concerning...but come fall if there’s not a suitable vaccine, very large numbers of elderly will be at risk. I hope the more virulent strain can be contained to China and that the mild strain is the one we are seeing globally. If not, we should prepare for the worst come next fall. There will be vaccine constraints, just hope it doesn’t lead to panic.

To put it in perspective, we just placed our flu shot orders. GSK and other companies are already producing them for the 2020-21 season, and the strains were already decided on.


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Indoors vs outdoors is the main reason flu season dies off in spring/summer. People are not as confined and in close quarters. There is no science Ive heard Of that links temperature to spread.
The cruise ships are climate controlled and the virus is still spreading like wildfire.
 
Indoors vs outdoors is the main reason flu season dies off in spring/summer. People are not as confined and in close quarters. There is no science Ive heard Of that links temperature to spread.
The cruise ships are climate controlled and the virus is still spreading like wildfire.


I bet it is a combination of reasons, which includes being in close quarters and that cold/dry air makes it easier to spread (like what my linked article suggests). With the cruise ships, the very close quarters could very well be trumping the weather.
 
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Indoors vs outdoors is the main reason flu season dies off in spring/summer. People are not as confined and in close quarters. There is no science Ive heard Of that links temperature to spread.
The cruise ships are climate controlled and the virus is still spreading like wildfire.

Thousands of people don’t naturally share that square footage in any other capacity either so there’s that. Lol


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Indoors vs outdoors is the main reason flu season dies off in spring/summer. People are not as confined and in close quarters. There is no science Ive heard Of that links temperature to spread.
The cruise ships are climate controlled and the virus is still spreading like wildfire.
Flu virus survives longer in cold actually BCDE636F-53AC-469C-A9E3-6FD4B4DD4637.jpeg
 
How so? I think the 3.4% number is highly misleading. It matters as to how deadly the virus is. Why wouldn’t you want to know the mortality rate? The seasonal flu is .1 % right? 1 in a 1000? So if covid19 is one is 1 in 100 or 1 in 500 or 1 on 50 it makes a difference. This is highly contagious so you can assume a ton of people end up with it. I’d like to know....
The point isn't that knowing the case fatality rate isn't valuable. It is that it is but one component of this virus. A CFR of even ~1% with an R0 of 3+ and a serious complication rate of 10%+ has the potential and even the likelihood of causing severe strain on health services, social orders, and economies worldwide. The CFR is important, but isn't really the driving factor of the critical nature of this bug.
 
Flu virus survives longer in cold actually View attachment 36913

fair enough. My main point is the driving factor seems to be close proximity. I’m going to assume most transmissions happen indoors which takes tempature out of the equation. I really believe the whole “warm weather will save us” is a false hope. The rate at which it spreads indicates to me weather isn’t going to change this much.
 
I think the theory is based on the premise that cold dry air tends to dry out a person's nasal and bronchial passages which makes one more susceptible to the virus itself. Warmer moist air tends to allow passages the hold more mucus providing more natural defense against a virus. Then add lower proximity and you have a chance to reduce an outbreak.
 
Indoors vs outdoors is the main reason flu season dies off in spring/summer. People are not as confined and in close quarters. There is no science Ive heard Of that links temperature to spread.
The cruise ships are climate controlled and the virus is still spreading like wildfire.
Yeah, but they are essentially floating petri dishes. Like someone else said about how the norovirus outbreaks spread on them. If you bought a ship to escape a disease, no matter how much you screened those brought on board and even if you sailed open waters without hitting port, it just takes one slip. Or one person's genetic makeup to ruin it. Call it chaos theory or whatever. Once that slip is made it's inevitable someone gets sick. You can have the best backup systems ever, water and air treatment systems, but a virus wants to live. I'd still travel right now, but wouldn't even consider a cruise.
 
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