Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

[Jon]

You're making a lot of somewhat far-fetched assumptions here and broad brushing the response of the CoV-19 to its external environment without actually definitively knowing anything about how this particular virus responds to a given amount of temperature and humidity variability. Everyone agrees that the virus will be dampened by high heat & humidity. Previously stating this is the case doesn't actually answer the question on if the increasingly warmer weather in the SE US will "definitely help", and even that is definitely a stretch given the following:

1) We're coming off one of the warmest winters on record here. If we move into a cooler than normal spring or even average spring which isn't likely but reasonably probable, the impact seasonal warming in the spring against a very warm winter will have on the virus will be lower than "normal", or potentially even a non-factor in an extreme cases depending on the timing of Cov-19's arrival and the observed spring temperatures.

2) You also have to know when the virus is going to reach the CONUS and begin infecting people en masse, and I'm certain absolutely no one knows when that'll happen. If that occurs in March, April, or May actually matters a lot because background temperatures and humidity change appreciably here over the course of the spring and even just one of these months individually. It's important to also keep in mind that data from the CDC and other nations is 2+ weeks old due to the CoV-19's incubation period and lags wrt test results for the virus

3) Each virus is different, sure it's similar to "x" viruses but that does not mean it's going to respond to environmental conditions in exactly the same way as SARS, MERS, & even influenza, etc.

Ok so given your bolded statement there, exactly what are you arguing? You didn't agree with that bold statement a couple of post ago when you were mentioning temps and how much is unknown about COVID-19's exact cellular breakdown and at what temperature...How is that any different than what I said? That I didn't take into when in fact seasonal change will occur? That I didn't map out the exact day for you? Maybe that I said if it was Dec I'd be concerned but because it's late Feb I'm not yet, as in me personally? I guess I should have prefaced to say "*****not speaking specifics at all here******" Come on man. We can move on now.

 

[Wildboutsnow]

It's funny to watch the media. Fox this morning and Charles Payne. He doesn't seem all that concerned about the stocks nor the virus. Going against the panic. Actually said yesterdays market was panic driven and ironically wall street likes that (panic driven selling to flush it all out so to speak). Backed up that we have done an excellent job containing and talked about the cruise ship people and the original ones (where are these elusive people media)? We have actually started discharging people and *so has China*. They are discharging more people now than people that have it. Over 30,000 actually. Of course there is more scary pics throughout from China during this interview...He also said "talking about a market sell off", Nancy and Chuck. Chuck was not happy when Trump shut off travel and and called him xenophobic (WTH) and now saying he's lame and dropped the ball...The writing is on the wall imo...Hype and blown out of proportion (Election)..Also heard companies in China are opening back up. Very interesting.

Several people around here have pneumonia. A friends baby, a friends mama, someone else I heard. Also daughter said people at hospital with it. ...Where'd that come from all of a sudden? Someone at Home Depot said they put a limit on masks but there are none now. Wuttt...I still think it has something to do with trade, money and reset. Or at least that is going to be the end story and the good from it. We do really need to get out of China's butt and past time.. Crazy.

 

[Heelyes]

60% of 350million equals 210million sick. 20%of 210million equals 42million seriously ill and 4.2million dead. This seems incredible bad. Someone tell me I'm wrong.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Antarctica is now the only continent without a case of coronavirus..now watch the spread commence

 

[Webberweather53]

Ok so given your bolded statement there, exactly what are you arguing? You didn't agree with that bold statement a couple of post ago when you were mentioning temps and how much is unknown about COVID-19's exact cellular breakdown and at what temperature...How is that any different than what I said? That I didn't take into when in fact seasonal change will occur? That I didn't map out the exact day for you? Maybe that I said if it was Dec I'd be concerned but because it's late Feb I'm not yet, as in me personally? I guess I should have prefaced to say "*****not speaking specifics at all here******" Come on man. We can move on now.

No i definitely agreed with that statement, you may have missed this part from my earlier response to you: "Yes, a virus will be hindered at very high temps and humidity " thus, you're completely misinterpreting my stance. I've been asking for some specifics from you since you're the medical professional. In order to believe that the weather will "definitely help" contain the spread of the virus you have to make a few extra assumptions which I've already outlined in my previous response to you (& you've completely ignored them).

Unless a) you actually know how this virus responds to particular temperatures and humidities that are very specific to the SE US, b) unless you also know when it will begin to spread across the SE US and c) what the general weather will be at the time it begins to do so, then you definitely do not definitively know that the weather will help contain CoV-19 or how significant its contribution will be to limiting the number of cases.

 

[Heelyes]

It's concerning to have so little information. What happens to the serious cases? Do they recover completely? Is there long term health problems?

 

[Webberweather53]

CoV-19 is having basically no problem spreading into the Maritime Continent which is warm-very warm & wet year-round. I have serious doubts that the magnitude of seasonal changes in the weather will be enough to significantly thwart CoV-19's progress into the CONUS when it arrives. Could the weather help? Maybe, but I'd portend without actual evidence on how CoV specifically responds to a particular subset of temps & humidity and given that is spreading rather unabated into areas of the world whose climate is akin to ours during the summer, I'd suggest the weather's influence on limiting CoV-19 is at best doubtful for now.

 

[Snowfan]

Pakistan has reported its first case.

 

[Shawn]

If this thing persists into Summer, can we start to assume it's weaponized?

 

[Jon]

No i definitely agreed with that statement, you may have missed this part from my earlier response to you: "Yes, a virus will be hindered at very high temps and humidity " thus, you're completely misinterpreting my stance. I've been asking for some specifics from you since you're the medical professional. In order to believe that the weather will "definitely help" contain the spread of the virus you have to make a few extra assumptions which I've already outlined in my previous response to you (& you've completely ignored them).

Unless a) you actually know how this virus responds to particular temperatures and humidities that are very specific to the SE US, b) unless you also know when it will begin to spread across the SE US and c) what the general weather will be at the time it begins to do so, then you definitely do not definitively know that the weather will help contain CoV-19 or how significant its contribution will be to limiting the number of cases.

This was my first response to you that you had such a hard time with:

Not the coronavirus, but viruses in general and the flu. But just because they haven’t done the same experiment on the coronavirus doesn’t mean it wouldn’t react the same. All viruses likely behave similar.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/flu-virus-fortified-colder-weather


There’s reason to believe that though, and we should see the spread slowly wane as we get into spring and summer.

Viruses are wimpy bugs, as this article explains and as my microbiology professor in pharmacy school always said...they have nothing on bacteria. Their membranes simply can’t withstand conditions.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I rest my case with you constantly trying to say I mentioned the SE region specifically and to provide specifics (for which you know I don’t have and can’t have at this point) to try and prove I’m wrong with the statement I made. Again, in my professional opinion, I stand by the statement that the coronavirus is likely to behave similar, not exactly, to other viruses when it comes to seasonal rate of infection.

I made a generalized (and educated) statement about viruses and I mentioned “Not Coronavirus” in my first post and even said “likely behave similar”

You like to debate, you like to argue. Everyone on this forum knows that. What I won’t tolerate is being called “rash” in my statements which is insulting and anything but. Then phrase your arguments around data I can’t provide, that you know I can’t provide, that has nothing to do with my original statement is bad taste. Good day.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

didn’t SARS target angiotensin converting enzyme 2 receptors in your lungs, novel Coronavirus really uses ACE2 receptors for entry into a human cell in your lung aswell, what seems fishy is people in one country having more ACE2 in there lungs vs another country not having much, but if that was true, that would possibly mean why someone has more severe infection, such as a Smoker to

 

[Windergawx]

What really needs to Be watched is south America and Australia as they are in summer season.

 

[snowlover91]

CoV-19 is having basically no problem spreading into the Maritime Continent which is warm-very warm & wet year-round. I have serious doubts that the magnitude of seasonal changes in the weather will be enough to significantly thwart CoV-19's progress into the CONUS when it arrives. Could the weather help? Maybe, but I'd portend without actual evidence on how CoV specifically responds to a particular subset of temps & humidity and given that is spreading rather unabated into areas of the world whose climate is akin to ours during the summer, I'd suggest the weather's influence on limiting CoV-19 is at best doubtful for now.

View attachment 36394

But how many of those cases in warmer areas were from people who traveled into areas that were much cooler when they initially contracted the coronavirus? If they contracted it several weeks ago in a cooler region but their home country is a warmer region it doesn’t necessarily mean the warmth is or isn’t hindering it imo. It supposedly has a 14 day incubation period where people can be contagious and not know it so cases popping up in warmer regions of the map don’t necessarily mean they contracted it there but that the symptoms began to surface when in said country.

 

[Windergawx]

With news out of Germany,I seethe markets going red

 

[BirdManDoomW]

my question is when and if should anyone call 911 over the coronavirus virus like do you need to see something or what

 

[Shawn]

my question is when and if should anyone call 911 over the coronavirus virus like do you need to see something or what

Collapsing is one major sign you need help. It's happening a lot, and has been for many weeks. The stories you hear about people just falling over in the middle of the street are true.

This damn virus creeps in on you, makes you sick with something that isn't too foreign feeling. It's being misdiagnosed in a lot of cases. The problem is, the after-effects and pneumonia, especially for the elderly and pre-existing conditions. By the time you start to develop pneumonia, it will be obvious.. from your oxygen levels significantly dropping.

 

[Webberweather53]

This was my first response to you that you had such a hard time with:



I rest my case with you constantly trying to say I mentioned the SE region specifically and to provide specifics (for which you know I don’t have and can’t have at this point) to try and prove I’m wrong with the statement I made. Again, in my professional opinion, I stand by the statement that the coronavirus is likely to behave similar, not exactly, to other viruses when it comes to seasonal rate of infection.

I made a generalized (and educated) statement about viruses and I mentioned “Not Coronavirus” in my first post and even said “likely behave similar”

You like to debate, you like to argue. Everyone on this forum knows that. What I won’t tolerate is being called “rash” in my statements which is insulting and anything but. Then phrase your arguments around data I can’t provide, that you know I can’t provide, that has nothing to do with my original statement is bad taste. Good day.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I like to debate and argue because I'm a scientist by practice and nature unlike the vast majority of the rest of the forum, and we're supposed to be inherently skeptical and constantly questioning new ideas, hypotheses, and statements, especially to ones like yours that aren't supported by any actual, hard evidence wrt CoV-19. If you make claims without substantial evidence and data to back them up & don't consider potential confounding variables, then they certainly will be perceived as hasty or rash in many circles, and will be open to scrutiny like this in a scientific setting, getting really upset over that is unprofessional on your end. Implying that I argue w/ those on this forum on any other grounds other than this is the way I naturally think & approach a problem, esp wrt to a personal attack (which is where you seem to be aiming at here) would be a severe misjudgement on your part.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Collapsing is one major sign you need help. It's happening a lot, and has been for many weeks. The stories you hear about people just falling over in the middle of the street are true.

This damn virus creeps in on you, makes you sick with something that isn't too foreign feeling. It's being misdiagnosed in a lot of cases. The problem is, the after-effects and pneumonia.

Those collapsing vids are weird, perhaps it’s the virus causing septic shock/sepsis ?

 

[Shawn]

Those collapsing vids are weird, perhaps it’s the virus causing septic shock/sepsis ?

I'm not sure how sick those people are.. but I'm thinking some of the people could be in denial, and just raw oxygen #s in their body is so low.

 

[Windergawx]

If they actually tested everyone with symptoms, I think it's a safe bet it's already in communities nation wide. Not saying this is deadly or not to much disinformation to say anything for sure. But when it's in our door steps we will find out

 

[whatalife]

Well this thread is LIT! Glad we have so many experts on the virus. Makes me feel safer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

If they actually tested everyone with symptoms, I think it's a safe bet it's already in communities nation wide. Not saying this is deadly or not to much disinformation to say anything for sure. But when it's in our door steps we will find out

It's become apparent that not all of the testing is catching it. Doctors misdiagnosing things as the flu, sinus infections.. lots of people go to the cheaper quick medical services that don't want to run the tests or even have them on hand.
Then if we already have mutations, the rapid tests might miss it all together..

It's kind of a screwed situation. I think we can safely assume that China has not been 100% honest, and there are other governments also not being 100% honest withe the predicted infection numbers. They've sent death vans/mobile crematoriams in parts of China already to deal with it..

I'm not sure we'll even know the true numbers.

 

[SASQUATCH]

This all reminds me of the SARS freak-out. Not saying it is...it just reminds me of it.

 

[Webberweather53]

But how many of those cases in warmer areas were from people who traveled into areas that were much cooler when they initially contracted the coronavirus? If they contracted it several weeks ago in a cooler region but their home country is a warmer region it doesn’t necessarily mean the warmth is or isn’t hindering it imo. It supposedly has a 14 day incubation period where people can be contagious and not know it so cases popping up in warmer regions of the map don’t necessarily mean they contracted it there but that the symptoms began to surface when in said country.

Many of those cases were but to assume most or all of them lack human-human transmission is a bit of a reach especially without hard evidence & figures to back that up, I'm pretty skeptical. The increasing number cases in the Maritime Continent and other areas of the tropics also shows that CoV-19 is more than capable of surviving in a warm/wet climate. The virus does not have an average 14 day incubation period, the CDC reports this is more like 2-6 days with some high outliers exceeding 14-27 days (& some of these are believed to be reinfections). The overwhelming majority of people will experience symptoms within several days of transmission of CoV-19.

 

[Windergawx]

How can the us be so far behind the ball with testing? Cdc sending out bad tests to states. States having to ask the fda for permission to create pad test. Real or not the world isn't ready. Hopefully this will be a learning lesson rather than doom

 

[Windergawx]

Stocks making a pull back

 

[Webberweather53]

If they actually tested everyone with symptoms, I think it's a safe bet it's already in communities nation wide. Not saying this is deadly or not to much disinformation to say anything for sure. But when it's in our door steps we will find out

Given the incubation period and time it takes to verify test results once individuals are actually screened for CoV-19, plus there's a small lag in actually reporting & verifying those cases, the current figures we see regarding CoV-19 will lag behind roughly 1.5-2 weeks (ish) vs reality, so CoV-19 is almost certainly a lot closer than it currently seems to being widespread in the CONUS.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Rush Limbaugh doesn’t seem too worried fwiw

 

[Webberweather53]

Rush Limbaugh doesn’t seem too worried fwiw

"The coronavirus is the common cold, folks.” 2/24/20

Rush Limbaugh is an idiot.

 

[Webberweather53]

"The coronavirus is the common cold, folks.” 2/24/20

Rush Limbaugh is an idiot.

I also find it ironic he of all people would come out & say something so short-sighted like this considering he's one of the individuals most at risk from suffering the most via CoV-19 given his age (69 yrs old) & pre-existing medical conditions (lung cancer).

 

[Arcc]

Those collapsing vids are weird, perhaps it’s the virus causing septic shock/sepsis ?

Probably closer to just people having heart attacks and seizures and people on Twitter saying everything is coronavirus with no confirmation.

 

[snowlover91]

Many of those cases were but to assume most or all of them lack human-human transmission is a bit of a reach especially without hard evidence & figures to back that up, I'm pretty skeptical. The increasing number cases in the Maritime Continent and other areas of the tropics also shows that CoV-19 is more than capable of surviving in a warm/wet climate. The virus does not have an average 14 day incubation period, the CDC reports this is more like 2-6 days with some high outliers exceeding 14-27 days (& some of these are believed to be reinfections). The overwhelming majority of people will experience symptoms within several days of transmission of CoV-19.

Yeah I'm just saying we don't know where the people in those warmer climates caught it especially when looking at a map like that. They could have caught it locally via HTH transmission or it could be with globalization/ease of travel issue where these cases popping up in warmer climates are simply from people who had been traveling in recent days and caught it elsewhere but did not yet display symptoms. We simply can't use a map and say definitively if the spreading into warmer climates is via HTH in those regions or from people who traveled to other areas, one would have to make an assumption since the map doesn't convey that information.

I didn't say it had a 14 day average incubation period, I said it has a 14 day incubation period which is within the upper range of official estimates from various organizations. "2-14 days represents the current official estimated range for the novel coronavirus COVID-19." Link

Here is further summaries from other organizations:
"The incubation period (time from exposure to the development of symptoms) of the virus is estimated to be between 2 and 14 days based on the following sources:

• The World Health Organization (WHO) reported an incubation period for 2019-nCoV between 2 and 10 days. [1]
• China’s National Health Commission (NHC) had initially estimated an incubation period from 10 to 14 days [2].
• The United States' CDC estimates the incubation period for 2019-nCoV to be between 2 and 14 days [3].
• DXY.cn, a leading Chinese online community for physicians and health care professionals, is reporting an incubation period of "3 to 7 days, up to 14 days."

Finally, "The incubation period of the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is considered to be 14 days. Health authorities across countries are adopting a 14-day quarantine period, based on the World Health Organization guidelines." Source

 

[GaWx]

Rush Limbaugh doesn’t seem too worried fwiw

I think Rush is saying this to try to help prop up the stock market to help his buddy, Trump.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah I'm just saying we don't know where the people in those warmer climates caught it especially when looking at a map like that. They could have caught it locally via HTH transmission or it could be with globalization/ease of travel issue where these cases popping up in warmer climates are simply from people who had been traveling in recent days and caught it elsewhere but did not yet display symptoms.

I didn't say it had a 14 day average incubation period, I said it has a 14 day incubation period which is within the upper range of official estimates from various organizations. "2-14 days represents the current official estimated range for the novel coronavirus COVID-19." Link

Here is further summaries from other organizations:
"The incubation period (time from exposure to the development of symptoms) of the virus is estimated to be between 2 and 14 days based on the following sources:

• The World Health Organization (WHO) reported an incubation period for 2019-nCoV between 2 and 10 days. [1]
• China’s National Health Commission (NHC) had initially estimated an incubation period from 10 to 14 days [2].
• The United States' CDC estimates the incubation period for 2019-nCoV to be between 2 and 14 days [3].
• DXY.cn, a leading Chinese online community for physicians and health care professionals, is reporting an incubation period of "3 to 7 days, up to 14 days."

Finally, "The incubation period of the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is considered to be 14 days. Health authorities across countries are adopting a 14-day quarantine period, based on the World Health Organization guidelines." Source

Regardless of how they got it, the sharp increase in the number of cases there definitely showcases that CoV-19 is easily capable of surviving or perhaps even thriving in a warm/wet climate, that's really the whole crux of my argument here. I'd like to see actual figures on the proportion of external vs in-situ derived CoV-19 cases south of China before immediately jumping to conclusions like this, the number of cases initially will be weighted externally but that will change over time as it spreads from person to person. You never said that but you certainly implied that was the standard or "normal" by saying outright that it has a 14 day incubation period without giving a valid range of dates. I really don't feel like arguing with you today...

 

[WxBlue]

I'll be honest - I feel like some of this is overblown by the media. Now... I'm not a MAGA supporter so I still have faith in journalism. But I do want to acknowledge there's a lot of fear-mongering out there. People freaked out about swine flu back in 2009 and it turned out to be fine. You really only need to worry about CoV-19 if you're old or very young. The number of cases will level out eventually... as it always do.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I think Rush is saying this to try to help prop up the stock market to help his buddy, Trump.

Like most things, this has become politicized. One side is saying “Panic!” The other side is saying “Relax”.

Truth probably lies some where in between.

 

[Rain Cold]

If this thing persists into Summer, can we start to assume it's weaponized?

I already think it came out of a lab.

 

[snowlover91]

Regardless of how they got it, the sharp increase in the number of cases there definitely showcases that CoV-19 is easily capable of surviving or perhaps even thriving in a warm/wet climate, that's really the whole crux of my argument here. I'd like to see actual figures on the proportion of external vs in-situ derived CoV-19 cases south of China before immediately jumping to conclusions like this, the number of cases initially will be weighted externally but that will change over time as it spreads from person to person. You never said that but you certainly implied that was the standard or "normal" by saying outright that it has a 14 day incubation period without giving a valid range of dates. I really don't feel like arguing with you today...

It remains to be seen how it does in a warm climate regarding HTH transmission and survival on various surfaces, I don't think we have enough data right now to definitively say one way or another how the HTH aspect is affected in warmer climates.

Yes I said a 14 day incubation period, this is considered the standard protocol as noted here when considering quarantines and the general incubation period of highest probability for transmission, "The incubation period of the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is considered to be 14 days. Health authorities across countries are adopting a 14-day quarantine period, based on the World Health Organization guidelines." If you have an issue with the 14 day quarantine period and incubation period referenced then take it up with the WHO and other organizations.

 

[Arcc]

I'll be honest - I feel like some of this is overblown by the media. Now... I'm not a MAGA supporter so I still have faith in journalism. But I do want to acknowledge there's a lot of fear-mongering out there. People freaked out about swine flu back in 2009 and it turned out to be fine. You really only need to worry about CoV-19 if you're old or very young. The number of cases will level out eventually... as it always do.

They had me freaked out in 2009 and they have had months to hype this one. One of the reasons why I take everything said about the hype with a ton of salt. Now the incoming panic bothers me as I’ve said in the past.