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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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Shaggy said:
See any freezes coming up to stop the bleeding?
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From a technical level, we're very likely to get a bounce in a couple of days. You have a couple of things working here. The virus looking more serious, in terms of spread and impacts, is one. The other is Bernie's resilience. This gets eye-rolled, but it does make sense. Stock prices are a function of supply and demand. The US is seen as the most stable and biggest economy in the world. Trump has been a pro market factor. Demand for US equities by global capital has been high for these reasons. If there is a growing possibility of a less pro market regime, particularly of the policy ilk of Bernie or Warren, then global capital will move out in advance of that. The other factor is the Fed. They have been the primary driver of risk assets over the last decade. Right now, they are not responding to the virus.

All of those factors are converging, coupled with the fact that asset prices are grossly out over their skis. Are we going down 20% in a week? Highly unlikely. It's statistically improbable. 1987 disagrees, but that's an anomaly. We are due for a technical bounce, which should retrace a decent portion of the decline. Then, we'll see what happens. The Fed meets later in March. If they don't lower rates or indicate that they are getting ready to do something, and if the virus continues to escalate, look out below.
 
This is a good article. Will take about 5-10 minutes to read, but it's a fairly good look at the whole picture of what has been happening, what is currently happening, what is changing, and what may lay ahead. It's probably a little more toward the worst case scenario end of the spectrum, but there are a lot of valid points.

One thing that I believe is incorrect is that the author seems to use the terms Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Mortality Rate (MR) interchangeably. I don't believe that is correct. From what I understand, the CFR is the percentage of those infected who die because of the virus. The MR is the percentage of the total population who die because of the virus. Just a little nuance to keep in mind.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
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Snowfan said:
Thread about new cases in Europe.
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Makes sense. Just like with Iran, if people are spreading it into other countries it’s widespread. Bad on the sense that it’s unstoppable, good on the sense that there are either tons of asymptomatic cases or mild cold like symptoms few are noticing. Makes me believe even more it’s widespread over here.
 
Windergawx said:
www.medrxiv.org

Temperature Significantly Change COVID-19 Transmission in 429 cities

Background There is no evidence supporting that temperature changes COVID-19 transmission. Methods We collected the cumulative number of confirmed cases of all cities and regions affected by COVID-19 in the world from January 20 to February 4, 2020, and calculated the daily means of the...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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If the SE ridge saves us from a US pandemic do we lose the ability to whine about it?
 
Webberweather53 said:
There’s no definitive evidence that warmer temperatures significantly hinder the coronavirus, it’s nothing more than hearsay and speculation at this point
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I would actually think UV light would do a much better job than just heat. Maybe the sun angle consistently becoming stronger will help. If I remember my classes right, I think UV does a better job at inactivating viruses than Chlorine.
 
Arcc said:
I would actually think UV light would do a much better job than just heat. Maybe the sun angle consistently becoming stronger will help. If I remember my classes right, I think UV does a better job at inactivating viruses than Chlorine.
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There’s no evidence to suggest this is even remotely the case, every virus is different and coronavirus cases are becoming widespread even in countries with more insolation and that are significantly warmer than the CONUS
 
Rain Cold said:
If volatility makes you too nervous to look at your account, you might need to adjust your risk tolerance. The market has been extremely overvalued for a long time. Central bank monetary policy has enabled this. They can't print up masks, food, and vaccines, though. Sharp sell-downs are likely when stocks are at nosebleed levels.
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I know it's probably not a good thing that I'm not looking at my account or what 1 of my stock tickers looks like, but that's probably going to be my strategy, to just look away from the account while there's a major pullback and wait.

You don't actually need to look everyday if you're trying to mostly long term (its something that I heard, reason, it can play games with your emotions) but I most likely will look at the account sooner rather than later.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Bought another 30 canned goods and 4 big packs of Ramen on the way home from work. I’ve probably got enough food to last 60-90 days
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Ollie’s is where it’s at. Big cans of buffalo chicken and lots of food cheap to stockpile. I already have more than 90 days worth so I don’t cheat at any fast food joint.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There’s no definitive evidence that warmer temperatures significantly hinder the coronavirus, it’s nothing more than hearsay and speculation at this point
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Not the coronavirus, but viruses in general and the flu. But just because they haven’t done the same experiment on the coronavirus doesn’t mean it wouldn’t react the same. All viruses likely behave similar.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/flu-virus-fortified-colder-weather


There’s reason to believe that though, and we should see the spread slowly wane as we get into spring and summer.

Viruses are wimpy bugs, as this article explains and as my microbiology professor in pharmacy school always said...they have nothing on bacteria. Their membranes simply can’t withstand conditions.


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Jon said:
Not the coronavirus, but viruses in general and the flu

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/flu-virus-fortified-colder-weather


There’s reason to believe that though, and we should see the spread slowly wane as we get into spring and summer.

Viruses are wimpy bugs, as this article explains and as my microbiology professor in pharmacy school always said...they have nothing on bacteria. Their membranes simply can’t withstand conditions.


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While it is true that virus membranes are sensitive to and thrive in specific environmental conditions we don't actually know how and to what extent the coronavirus will be affected at all and at what temperature(s) & humidity(ies). Prevailing wisdom would certainly argue that warmer temps and higher humidity would damper the virus, but we honestly don't know what those limits are (yet).
 
I find it very interesting that many people that are interested in meteorology are also strongly interested in covid19. Myself included. Any theories as to why?
 
Webberweather53 said:
While it is true that virus membranes are sensitive to and thrive in specific environmental conditions we don't actually know how and to what extent the coronavirus will be affected at all and at what temperature(s) & humidity(ies). Prevailing wisdom would certainly argue that warmer temps and higher humidity would damper the virus, but we honestly don't know what those limits are (yet).
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Unless it’s some super virus we have never seen, it’s likely it’s similar in structure (and weakness) to other viruses. If it wasn’t a Coronavirus and they named a new type virus that we haven’t discovered, AND it was December and not late Feb, I’d probably be more worried. But this is kinda normal for an outbreak of this sort honestly... should we prepare and be concerned? Yes. But the hype around this virus is a little much. When I read some posts and comments, I feel similar to say...if someone told you freaking out about a snowfall molded this March and saying it will be a repeat of March 1960....lol everyone needs to calm down and let the data (real cdc backed data) roll in and let the experts speak. The CDC teleconference was taken WAY out of context by almost every outlet that covered it today.


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bouncycorn said:
I find it very interesting that many people that are interested in meteorology are also strongly interested in covid19. Myself included. Any theories as to why?
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People who come on here are probably very analytical types...want to know when, where, how, why etc.

It’s in our nature...


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Jon said:
Unless it’s some super virus we have never seen, it’s likely it’s similar in structure (and weakness) to other viruses. If it wasn’t a Coronavirus and they named a new type virus that we haven’t discovered, AND it was December and not late Feb, I’d probably be more worried. But this is kinda normal for an outbreak of this sort honestly... should we prepare and be concerned? Yes. But the hype around this virus is a little much. When I read some posts and comments, I feel similar to say...if someone told you freaking out about a snowfall molded this March and saying it will be a repeat of March 1960....lol everyone needs to calm down and let the data (real cdc backed data) roll in and let the experts speak. The CDC teleconference was taken WAY out of context by almost every outlet that covered it today.


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Nature of the times we live, chaos and doom and gloom are what gets pushed for the most part by "media."

With the Chinese population estimated at 1.4 billion if there was even a 1% population infection rate that would be 14 million people, even they couldn't keep that quiet.

Think it's something to keep an eye on and be prepared because the unnecessary (to this point) panic will only be driven to extreme levels by the "media."

It's perplexing to me that it's a huge story one person has been diagnosed in a country, this isn't some contagion movie nor the zombie apocalypse, it's real life with sicknesses and some are a bit worse than others.

my 1/2 penny fwiw..
 
Dow futures are up over 200. Nasdaq is up 85. Crude is up. These all at session highs. Gold is down. Keeping my fingers crossed that all of this is based on legitimately good news as opposed to just a dead ? bounce!
 
Dow is starting a pull back? I was thinking a small bounce back tomorrow like few hundred. May not happen

More markets overseas are turning red
 
bouncycorn said:
I find it very interesting that many people that are interested in meteorology are also strongly interested in covid19. Myself included. Any theories as to why?
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Probably a lot to do with why snow chances in the South attracts so much discussion. It's likely not going to happen, and we have some sick fascination torturing ourselves with some kind of hidden mental health issue deep down inside from childhood.

Like the snow, this virus that was just under-hyped by the CDC not long ago, is now being overhyped. lol
 
Man, this BNO news account, i've seen on a lot of conspiracy websites and stuff. I've never looked into them or their content.. just wanted to put out there to not believe everything you see. We can't even trust traditional news outlets these days.
 
Shawn said:
Man, this BNO news account, i've seen on a lot of conspiracy websites and stuff. I've never looked into them or their content.. just wanted to put out there to not believe everything you see. We can't even trust traditional news outlets these days.
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That account is made specifically for coronavirus updates, that have a main news account, so far they haven’t posted nothing erratic, after they post the other bigger news channels say the exact things, they done well... so far, so far lol
 
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