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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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That account is made specifically for coronavirus updates, that have a main news account, so far they haven’t posted nothing erratic, after they post the other bigger news channels say the exact things, they done well... so far, so far lol

Oh okay. It's hard to keep up with all the "news sources" on social media now.

Anyways, it looks like the freak-out is about to really take shape from a couple things I've been told. You guys might want to prep up a little if you're into that thing. Should know by Friday.

And the prepping is to potentially avoid being around large crowds. IDK about the South, but it looks like it's about time for the SHTF.

I can say, incoming big outbreak UK probably. A lot of people without symptoms arriving from a big trip recently.
 
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Oh okay. It's hard to keep up with all the "news sources" on social media now.

Anyways, it looks like the freak-out is about to really take shape from a couple things I've been told. You guys might want to prep up a little if you're into that thing. Should know by Friday.

And the prepping is to potentially avoid being around large crowds. IDK about the South, but it looks like it's about time for the SHTF.

Over here myself I’m just preparing just in case, and man I really would not like a freak out given I work at a store (part time) lol
 
Do we have a prophet on our hands here?

aprphet.JPG
 
Dow and oil futures have fallen back quite a bit unfortunately.

The Dow futures fell to over 400 down a couple of hours ago, but has since risen sharply to slightly up for the session.
 
This is coming out quicker than I anticipated, with the Aussies releasing that.. UK is about to get rocked.

France has deaths now
It just hit Greece.
Iran's strain from what I understand has mutated from the strict wuhan version

oh boy.
 
Trump gonna give that speech tonight at 6. Glad he reads this forum!

Man, I thought I was being a little under generous with the "by Friday" deal. Leave it to the government to spy on me and call me out and get it done hours after. Rofl, everyone's going to get the whole "no need to panic" thing to try to calm markets.
 
This virus will continue to mutate. Remember many in China who died from it were not listed as death by this virus. Instead they were listed as death by pneumonia. Also America is not testing most cases suspected here now. Bottom line we know there will be deaths but eventually the antibiotics to tx the pneumonia and complications will become scarce. The prices of them will sky rocket. Along with other pharmaceuticals and meds to tx this virus. When this happens it will not be a pretty picture. As I posted before the economic impacts will be staggering. This virus has no vaccine and they are Not close to having one. Like the flu vaccine they are missing it more and more every year because it mutates. This virus is even more complex and stronger than the flu virus. Trusting any govt that they are being honest about it is not something I would do. I’d say it’s much worse than they are saying.
 
Unless it’s some super virus we have never seen, it’s likely it’s similar in structure (and weakness) to other viruses. If it wasn’t a Coronavirus and they named a new type virus that we haven’t discovered, AND it was December and not late Feb, I’d probably be more worried. But this is kinda normal for an outbreak of this sort honestly... should we prepare and be concerned? Yes. But the hype around this virus is a little much. When I read some posts and comments, I feel similar to say...if someone told you freaking out about a snowfall molded this March and saying it will be a repeat of March 1960....lol everyone needs to calm down and let the data (real cdc backed data) roll in and let the experts speak. The CDC teleconference was taken WAY out of context by almost every outlet that covered it today.


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Again, we do not actually know how it's impacted by temperature & humidity yet. Yes, it's in the same family as those other viruses but every virus behaves differently and is in a state of perpetual mutation, thus it's premature to conclude that (this version) of the coronavirus will significantly be affected (negatively) by the kinds of changes we see in temperature & humidity over the next few months without any actual evidence to support it. Yes, a virus will be hindered at very high temps and humidity but does this particular virus begin to be adversely affected at 60, 70, 80, or 90F or 70, 80, 90, or 100% RH? Those are very important questions that have massive implications wrt impacts here and we simply do not know the answer to any of those, assuming we kind of already do without a shred evidence to substantiate it is rash. Sure, I agree that at a certain point, coronavirus spread will be hampered, but I highly doubt will be soon enough to forestall its spread into the United States given that many other countries with comparable or warmer climates than the SE US are dealing w/ an outbreak of Cov-19, which the CDC deems as highly likely at this point.

"
Q: Will warm weather stop the outbreak of COVID-19?

A: It is not yet known whether weather and temperature impact the spread of COVID-19. Some other viruses, like the common cold and flu, spread more during cold weather months but that does not mean it is impossible to become sick with these viruses during other months. At this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when weather becomes warmer. There is much more to learn about the transmissibility, severity, and other features associated with COVID-19 and investigations are ongoing."
 
This is coming out quicker than I anticipated, with the Aussies releasing that.. UK is about to get rocked.

France has deaths now
It just hit Greece.
Iran's strain from what I understand has mutated from the strict wuhan version

oh boy.
Viruses mutate that's 110% normal and expected.
 
Viruses mutate that's 110% normal and expected.

Yeah, I understand that. It's just quick, while everyone is scrambling to figure out a potential vaccine. Complicates things.
 
Viruses mutate that's 110% normal and expected.

Yeah, I understand that. It's just quick, while everyone is scrambling to figure out a potential vaccine. Complicates things.


Viruses mutate but RNA viruses like Cov-19 do so at a much, much higher rate (several times more) than a DNA virus for example (that uses polymerases of the host cell) which makes this family of viruses that CoV-19 belongs to generally more virulent, and their mutation rate is so high it's almost to the point of "lethal mutagenesis".

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My doctor said it’s just the flu to get vaccinated people over there didn’t got sick. He said Wilkes health department is all over it and will get people flu shots to prevent coronavirus.

Ugh... No, the CoV-19 is not the flu and no CoV-19 vaccinations are not available to the general public, nor will be for at least a year.
 
As stupid as this sounds, I really hope none of you are “wishcasting” as you would for snow or severe weather. This is a very serious and fluid situation, this is an event where speculation is not as helpful as say a winter storm.
 
As stupid as this sounds, I really hope none of you are “wishcasting” as you would for snow or severe weather. This is a very serious and fluid situation, this is an event where speculation is not as helpful as say a winter storm.

I mean, the world is over populated. Mother Nature has a way of taking care of herself.. I hate to put it like that.. but what else could we expect from the way they live in that area of the World.. and the speed of travel these days.. (aside from the whole manmade theory)

I bring this up because it's not really us so much "wishcasting" a big outbreak, moreso than the looneytoons over on the conspiracy forums. It's absolutely wild out there where they congregate together all in one place. I saw a video of some guy spitting all over a door handle on purpose a few weeks ago over there in the China area... which you'd assume was a sickness.

Then if for some reason this was being weaponized.. and intended for Hong Kong.. I mean.. IDK... who knows the powerful people and countries in play here for something bigger.
 
Again, we do not actually know how it's impacted by temperature & humidity yet. Yes, it's in the same family as those other viruses but every virus behaves differently and is in a state of perpetual mutation, thus it's premature to conclude that (this version) of the coronavirus will significantly be affected (negatively) by the kinds of changes we see in temperature & humidity over the next few months without any actual evidence to support it. Yes, a virus will be hindered at very high temps and humidity but does this particular virus begin to be adversely affected at 60, 70, 80, or 90F or 70, 80, 90, or 100% RH? Those are very important questions that have massive implications wrt impacts here and we simply do not know the answer to any of those, assuming we kind of already do without a shred evidence to substantiate it is rash. Sure, I agree that at a certain point, coronavirus spread will be hampered, but I highly doubt will be soon enough to forestall its spread into the United States given that many other countries with comparable or warmer climates than the SE US are dealing w/ an outbreak of Cov-19, which the CDC deems as highly likely at this point.

"
Q: Will warm weather stop the outbreak of COVID-19?

A: It is not yet known whether weather and temperature impact the spread of COVID-19. Some other viruses, like the common cold and flu, spread more during cold weather months but that does not mean it is impossible to become sick with these viruses during other months. At this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when weather becomes warmer. There is much more to learn about the transmissibility, severity, and other features associated with COVID-19 and investigations are ongoing."
I'm sure you know my background but for others, I'm a doctorate level medical professional. I've taken undergraduate and doctorate level courses in microbiology. I do know a little about virus function and behavior, so I get what you're saying but my statements aren't premature or rash and it's interesting you're going toe-to-toe with me on this.

Yes, it's correct that we haven't had the time to specifically test COVID-19 and whether or not it's somehow resistant to high temperatures when all other viruses are susceptible, but that doesn't mean it's premature to make a generalized statement about how viruses in general behave. It's perfectly OK to make a statement about virus function in general when referring to COVID-19. The probability of COVID-19 viral structure being that much different than SARS or MERS on an order of incredible magnitude thus making it immune to higher temperatures is slim. I'll stand by this statement.

As for the bold part: The flu spreads well into the spring and even summer months, people get the Flu in June, July, August. That wasn't my point... I see probably 1 case of flu and 1 prescription for oseltamivir in the month of May. Currently, I'm getting multiple prescriptions daily. Of course it will continue to spawn cases into warmer weather, but the overall rate of spread will wane. I never said warmer weather will all of a sudden put a wall up around the USA and save us all. It's going to help. The fact that it's late feb is going to help. The fact that we have seen a relatively low fatality rate is a good thing. I don't think this is some super virus that is going to outdo the average US flu deaths over the last decade. I just don't see the reason to think otherwise and believe the hype at this point until we are told otherwise. By "hype" I mean the doom and gloom, I already said we should prepare and be ready.
 
I'm sure you know my background but for others, I'm a doctorate level medical professional. I've taken undergraduate and doctorate level courses in microbiology. I do know a little about virus function and behavior, so I get what you're saying but my statements aren't premature or rash and it's interesting you're going toe-to-toe with me on this.

Yes, it's correct that we haven't had the time to specifically test COVID-19 and whether or not it's somehow resistant to high temperatures when all other viruses are susceptible, but that doesn't mean it's premature to make a generalized statement about how viruses in general behave. It's perfectly OK to make a statement about virus function in general when referring to COVID-19. The probability of COVID-19 viral structure being that much different than SARS or MERS on an order of incredible magnitude thus making it immune to higher temperatures is slim. I'll stand by this statement.

As for the bold part: The flu spreads well into the spring and even summer months, people get the Flu in June, July, August. That wasn't my point... I see probably 1 case of flu and 1 prescription for oseltamivir in the month of May. Currently, I'm getting multiple prescriptions daily. Of course it will continue to spawn cases into warmer weather, but the overall rate of spread will wane. I never said warmer weather will all of a sudden put a wall up around the USA and save us all. It's going to help. The fact that it's late feb is going to help. The fact that we have seen a relatively low fatality rate is a good thing. I don't think this is some super virus that is going to outdo the average US flu deaths over the last decade. I just don't see the reason to think otherwise and believe the hype at this point until we are told otherwise. By "hype" I mean the doom and gloom, I already said we should prepare and be ready.
It's encouraging that we haven't seen a big spread in areas that are warm right now. But that could be for a number of reasons not weather/climate related, also. There are just a lot of unknowns. What we do know, at least based on the data we have so far, are the following:

1) It's much more infectious than the flu
2) It has a higher serious complication rate than the flu
3) It has a higher CFR than the flu
4) It is not being tested for as ubiquitously as the flu
5) There are no vaccines like there are for the flu
6) Antivirals have shown limited positive results, unlike with the flu
7) There is no herd immunity like there tends to be with the flu

The coronavirus and the flu are comparable because they are both viruses. But at least with what we know today, that's pretty much where the comparisons end.
 
My doctor said it’s just the flu to get vaccinated people over there didn’t got sick. He said Wilkes health department is all over it and will get people flu shots to prevent coronavirus.

Does the flu vaccine work all the time? No! So do you think a vaccine if created will work? No!
 
Yeah, I understand that. It's just quick, while everyone is scrambling to figure out a potential vaccine. Complicates things.
Yeah, not having a vaccine may be scaring most people. What is important now is focusing on treatment and not vaccines. Vaccines are imperfect and take time to develop and take 2 weeks to work even after vaccination. Hell, people don't get flu vaccines BY CHOICE yearly and many people die from the flu every year -- no one bats an eye.

We need to streamline antiviral treatments, some of which have already been published and demonstrated to work on COVID-19 in some of the harsher areas hit in China. I have no doubt we'll be able to control this eventually, it's just a matter of when. We've already seen cases diminishing in the areas first struck by COVID-19 due to the quarantine efforts.
 
It's encouraging that we haven't seen a big spread in areas that are warm right now. But that could be for a number of reasons not weather/climate related, also. There are just a lot of unknowns. What we do know, at least based on the data we have so far, are the following:

1) It's much more infectious than the flu
2) It has a higher serious complication rate than the flu
3) It has a higher CFR than the flu
4) It is not being tested for as ubiquitously as the flu
5) There are no vaccines like there are for the flu
6) Antivirals have shown limited positive results, unlike with the flu
7) There is no herd immunity like there tends to be with the flu

The coronavirus and the flu are comparable because they are both viruses. But at least with what we know today, that's pretty much where the comparisons end.
The problem is that it's unknown and the unknowns surrounding the virus is what scares people. The CDC's job is to warn the American people of the possibilities. They HAD to make the statements they made yesterday soley based on those said unknowns. It doesn't mean that the wost case possible of those unknowns will end up verifying. As I stated in my first post, we should take precaution.
 
I'm sure you know my background but for others, I'm a doctorate level medical professional. I've taken undergraduate and doctorate level courses in microbiology. I do know a little about virus function and behavior, so I get what you're saying but my statements aren't premature or rash and it's interesting you're going toe-to-toe with me on this.

Yes, it's correct that we haven't had the time to specifically test COVID-19 and whether or not it's somehow resistant to high temperatures when all other viruses are susceptible, but that doesn't mean it's premature to make a generalized statement about how viruses in general behave. It's perfectly OK to make a statement about virus function in general when referring to COVID-19. The probability of COVID-19 viral structure being that much different than SARS or MERS on an order of incredible magnitude thus making it immune to higher temperatures is slim. I'll stand by this statement.

As for the bold part: The flu spreads well into the spring and even summer months, people get the Flu in June, July, August. That wasn't my point... I see probably 1 case of flu and 1 prescription for oseltamivir in the month of May. Currently, I'm getting multiple prescriptions daily. Of course it will continue to spawn cases into warmer weather, but the overall rate of spread will wane. I never said warmer weather will all of a sudden put a wall up around the USA and save us all. It's going to help. The fact that it's late feb is going to help. The fact that we have seen a relatively low fatality rate is a good thing. I don't think this is some super virus that is going to outdo the average US flu deaths over the last decade. I just don't see the reason to think otherwise and believe the hype at this point until we are told otherwise. By "hype" I mean the doom and gloom, I already said we should prepare and be ready.
If you’re a medical professional, shouldn’t you already know not to immediately jump to conclusions like this without any actual evidence to back it up unless you somehow know more than literally everyone here on the topic, then enlighten me and the rest of us here about how CoV-19 responds to changes in temperature and humidity and more specifically how the seasonal changes here in the SE US will be significant enough to combat the virus when it comes calling
 
The problem is that it's unknown and the unknowns surrounding the virus is what scares people. The CDC's job is to warn the American people of the possibilities. They HAD to make the statements they made yesterday soley based on those said unknowns. It doesn't mean that the wost case possible of those unknowns will end up verifying. As I stated in my first post, we should take precaution.
I agree with this 100%, which is why it baffles me that leaders all over the world are always in a reactionary mode with things like this. It always ends up leading the population to chaos, panic, and erroneous thinking. The messaging needs to be much more direct, continuous, and matter of fact, along with communication around what action the public should take, based on the information.

Anyway, there are way too many unknowns. I, for one, am not panicked about it at all. But lots of possibilities are on the table here, and swinging the pendulum wildly in the other direction (which I know you aren't), severely downplaying this, is a mistake.

Right now, as best we can tell, we have a highly contagious virus that is bad for about 20% of people, killing about 10ish% of that subset, usually the elderly or those with other illnesses. Those numbers aren't exact, but they're pretty close. This can change, but this is how it is now. The better that's understood, the better people can be advised to react.
 
If you’re a medical professional, shouldn’t you already know not to immediately jump to conclusions like this without any actual evidence to back it up unless you somehow know more than literally everyone here on the topic, then enlighten me and the rest of us here about how CoV-19 responds to changes in temperature and humidity and more specifically how the seasonal changes here in the SE US will be significant enough to combat the virus when it comes calling
I can speak generally about virus behavior as it relates to the seasons and not be wrong. That should be fairly understood. As I said, of course we don't know exact numbers, but some assumptions can be made for all viruses. I don't know how else to explain this. It's a fairly common belief in the medical field.

In my very first post where I made this statement, I recall saying to prepare. The problem is all of a sudden my comments about seasonal expectations are being twisted and taken out of context, as if I said something I did not.

"More specifically how the seasonal changes here in the SE US will be significant enough to combat the virus when it comes calling"

When did I say this?

I'm not going to backtrack on my general statement of virus behavior. It's in any microbiology 101 book and is accepted by experts around the globe. I don't really want to continue the back and forth, I think we can agree that a lot of unknowns of this virus are getting to people it seems at an emotional level. So at this point continuing to post on it is of no interest to me.
 
I find it hilarious that San Fran has declared a state of emergency yet they say the virus is not in America. Trump telling nation tonight it’s under control. So when it is released it’s here. He will be blamed for incompetence.
 
As long as we're on the subject of prepping, the Dept. of Homeland Security's Ready.gov website has a section devoted to pandemic preparedness:
 
I actually read before it really became bad in China from a virologist that in most cases viruses become less deadly as they mutate. If 60 percent get this virus and 20 percent is serious that means around 30million seriously ill in the US? 3 million die? Is my math right?
I agree with this 100%, which is why it baffles me that leaders all over the world are always in a reactionary mode with things like this. It always ends up leading the population to chaos, panic, and erroneous thinking. The messaging needs to be much more direct, continuous, and matter of fact, along with communication around what action the public should take, based on the information.

Anyway, there are way too many unknowns. I, for one, am not panicked about it at all. But lots of possibilities are on the table here, and swinging the pendulum wildly in the other direction (which I know you aren't), severely downplaying this, is a mistake.

Right now, as best we can tell, we have a highly contagious virus that is bad for about 20% of people, killing about 10ish% of that subset, usually the elderly or those with other illnesses. Those numbers aren't exact, but they're pretty close. This can change, but this is how it is now. The better that's understood, the better people can be advised to react.
 
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I agree with this 100%, which is why it baffles me that leaders all over the world are always in a reactionary mode with things like this. It always ends up leading the population to chaos, panic, and erroneous thinking. The messaging needs to be much more direct, continuous, and matter of fact, along with communication around what action the public should take, based on the information.

Anyway, there are way too many unknowns. I, for one, am not panicked about it at all. But lots of possibilities are on the table here, and swinging the pendulum wildly in the other direction (which I know you aren't), severely downplaying this, is a mistake.

Right now, as best we can tell, we have a highly contagious virus that is bad for about 20% of people, killing about 10ish% of that subset, usually the elderly or those with other illnesses. Those numbers aren't exact, but they're pretty close. This can change, but this is how it is now. The better that's understood, the better people can be advised to react.
Great post.

This virus, while behaving differently and there are a lot of unknowns, does have similarities to other viruses...especially the ages in the mortality group. >65 and over is a GOOD thing. The minute I say that, however, someone will link an article about a young chinese doctor dying. There's always exceptions and they are often used to spread propaganda and fear. That's my overall point but no one wants to hear that. They want to hear its bad, to worry, that all your children will die. That's more believable, that's the world we live in...false and fast information at your fingertips when you're the most vulnerable.

The CDC teleconference was bad, and not in a "the virus is bad" way, but sometimes the most intellectual minds have a very, very hard time conveying important information to the public...and that CDC teleconference is Exhibit 1 in every textbook of what not to do.

I just want people to take a deep breath. I'm seeing the ramifications of panic on the front lines already. People asking for masks that are sold out everywhere, asking if we can order them. People are in a panic. It may be water cooler talk to some but if you work in the healthcare field, panic isn't good...and the CDC did nothing helpful yesterday. Absolutely nothing.
 
I find it hilarious that San Fran has declared a state of emergency yet they say the virus is not in America. Trump telling nation tonight it’s under control. So when it is released it’s here. He will be blamed for incompetence.
The fact that we're seeing/hearing these things means it's already here. I think I said this yesterday, but I bet within 2 weeks (maybe even a matter of days), it will pop up out of the blue in at least one major US city. My money is on somewhere in CA.
 
No way am I panicked or gloom and doom. I am a realist to always know your surroundings and definitely don’t trust the govt. Aside from all the sickness and deaths. The economic impacts could be staggering. That’s what people just ignoring don’t understand and are just naïve. Prices will increase in basic necessities and supplies. From pharmaceuticals to gas. There could and most likely be shortages. What happens when that family member has pneumonia and there is no antibiotics to fight it? A simple hurricane causes gas shortages to a smaller area. This is over a much larger area. How can anyone think there will no be complications?
 
I can speak generally about virus behavior as it relates to the seasons and not be wrong. That should be fairly understood. As I said, of course we don't know exact numbers, but some assumptions can be made for all viruses. I don't know how else to explain this. It's a fairly common belief in the medical field.

In my very first post where I made this statement, I recall saying to prepare. The problem is all of a sudden my comments about seasonal expectations are being twisted and taken out of context, as if I said something I did not.

"More specifically how the seasonal changes here in the SE US will be significant enough to combat the virus when it comes calling"

When did I say this?

I'm not going to backtrack on my general statement of virus behavior. It's in any microbiology 101 book and is accepted by experts around the globe. I don't really want to continue the back and forth, I think we can agree that a lot of unknowns of this virus are getting to people it seems at an emotional level. So at this point continuing to post on it is of no interest to me.

You're making a lot of somewhat far-fetched assumptions here and broad brushing the response of the CoV-19 to its external environment without actually definitively knowing anything about how this particular virus responds to a given amount of temperature and humidity variability. Everyone agrees that the virus will be dampened by high heat & humidity. Previously stating this is the case doesn't actually answer the question on if the increasingly warmer weather in the SE US will "definitely help", and even that is definitely a stretch given the following:

1) We're coming off one of the warmest winters on record here. If we move into a cooler than normal spring or even average spring which isn't likely but reasonably probable, the impact seasonal warming in the spring against a very warm winter will have on the virus will be lower than "normal", or potentially even a non-factor in an extreme cases depending on the timing of Cov-19's arrival and the observed spring temperatures.

2) You also have to know when the virus is going to reach the CONUS and begin infecting people en masse, and I'm certain absolutely no one knows when that'll happen. If that occurs in March, April, or May actually matters a lot because background temperatures and humidity change appreciably here over the course of the spring and even just one of these months individually. It's important to also keep in mind that data from the CDC and other nations is 2+ weeks old due to the CoV-19's incubation period and lags wrt test results for the virus

3) Each virus is different, sure it's similar to "x" viruses but that does not mean it's going to respond to environmental conditions in exactly the same way as SARS, MERS, & even influenza, etc.
 
I made a mess of that last post. Can someone fix it or delete it?
I think I fixed it. Take a look and let me know.

When you start typing too fast before the quote that you're quoting loads, part of your sentence that you just typed will be outside the quote and the rest of it will get put inside the quote, once it loads. It's a little glitch.
 
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