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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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LithiaWx said:
I don’t trust data coming out of China. Italy and SK are good places to look for true data.
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"true" or possibly "less skewed"...
Asked an economist in trial one question, on cross-exam, after he got done spouting off a bunch of BLS statistics - "And Dr., are you asking this jury to actually believe what the government publishes?" Great verdict ...
 
LithiaWx said:
I don’t trust data coming out of China. Italy and SK are good places to look for true data.
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That graph is excluding Hubei, otherwise that chart would look much different.

Also, I don’t think China data should be completely ignored...it’s showing what effective quarantines do.

I do agree that SK and Italy data is the most reliable, but they didn’t quarantine the entire country so it makes sense...


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Jon said:
That graph is excluding Hubei, otherwise that chart would look much different.

Also, I don’t think China data should be completely ignored...it’s showing what effective quarantines do.

I do agree that SK and Italy data is the most reliable, but they didn’t quarantine the entire country so it makes sense...


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China used draconian methods to control the virus. Not sure if the means justify the end. And I don’t discount it completely but we are taking about a secretive communist regime that has a history of human rights abuses.
 
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This is by far the best sample we could ask for. Enough time has elasped to get a good picture of what this virus is about.

Out of 705 people who tested positive on board the quarantined cruise ship, nearly 400 showed no symptoms, Japanese government officials said on Monday. Some would never have been tested unless they had been on board the ship, they said. While many people appear able to shrug the virus off, it clearly is devastating to the elderly and people with underlying health problems. Six of the cruise ship passengers died.
 
GaWx said:
Interesting interview of Dr. Drew Pinsky on the virus (only 1 minute, 42 sec long): the press is overdoing it as they treat everything as an emergency (chances of dieing from flu much higher)
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So far this is not how its panning out, there are around 130ish confirmed US cases.....out of which we have had 6 deaths already. Right now around 4% of all known cases have resulted in death....flu is around .1-.2%.
 
Downeastnc said:
So far this is not how its panning out, there are around 130ish confirmed US cases.....out of which we have had 6 deaths already. Right now around 4% of all known cases have resulted in death....flu is around .1-.2%.
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Then there’s this guy, who’s data I mentioned yesterday

Cryptic transmission of novel coronavirus revealed by genomic epidemiology

bedford.io bedford.io

Well, long story short, he estimates 600 current cases...in Seattle alone. Based on this I’d say the mortality rate is way too high, this virus seems to be very mild in many people and the lack of testing may be underestimating numbers. Deaths are easy to count...hundreds and even thousands of people walking around asymptomatic is very hard to count.


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Jon said:
Then there’s this guy, who’s data I mentioned year day.

Cryptic transmission of novel coronavirus revealed by genomic epidemiology

bedford.io bedford.io

Well, long story short, he estimates 600 current cases...in Seattle alone. Based on this I’d say the mortality rate is way too high, this virus seems to be very mild in many people and the lack of testing may be underestimating numbers. Deaths are easy to count...hundreds and even thousands of people walking around asymptomatic is very hard to count.


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Oh I agree totally, there are surely tons of cases that are not currently reported, probably realistically there are thousands of people with it in the US currently and like you stated most will only deal with a annoying cold that they probably mistaken for allergies etc.....and the death rate is no where near 4%.....its just way to soon to say this is not as deadly as the flu..
 
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