6,984 new cases in New York State and over 200 new deaths since yesterday afternoon.
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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)
- Thread starter GaWx
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Is that a real question or are you just trying to make us laugh?
Snowflowxxl
Member
I would like to know as well? Don’t see how it is funny.
Yellow Snow
Member
"On purpose"? So you're saying that GDPH is lying?
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Thanks for backing me up. Cant ask anything on here without getting attacked. I see all these crazy numbers and im just wondering when the social distancing is going to start working.
Snow_chaser
Member
It’s heating up here in Georgia, some mayors are now planning to put some heat on Gov Kemp
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In a hand-wavy sense, flattening the curve does not automatically mean more or less total people are eventually affected by the virus in the very long run (due to human behaviors, randomness, etc), it increases their chance of survival however as the healthcare system doesn't become overloaded, decreases the chance for the virus to mutate (into something different or more/less virulent) more rapidly, and provides more opportunity for vaccines and medicines to be developed.
However, the underlying probable-likely reality is, that as you impose increasingly stringent measures to limit the spread of the virus and as the limit of the peak of the number of cases approaches zero, less people in total will actually be infected by the virus to the point where it does in fact go to zero and the chance that nearly the entire population will be infected over time "t" also decreases. Therefore, limiting the spread of the virus actually causes the total number of people affected to go down (see Japan & South Korea for ex). I think a viable analog in nature is black body radiation as a function of temperature. As you increase temperature, the radiation peak heightens & narrows, but the total amount of radiation emitted actually scales up exponentially by a factor of the temperature quarted (to the 4th power).
Obviously, keep in mind that we're dealing w/ people instead of radiation and that the total population isn't necessarily seemingly limitless, s.t. there's an inherent cap on the height and width of the coronavirus case peak, however I think there's legitimate physical reasoning behind the rationale that limiting the spread of the virus actually increases the chance that less people become infected by it.
Undoubtedly, such control measures save millions of lives globally.
Shaggy
Member
Perhaps. However it's hard to ignore the stay home and dont get tested orders.
Thanks for the detailed answer!
Shaggy
Member
I think the best way to guess this is by looking at countries that are ahead of us. Italy appears to finally be on the downswing in terms of new cases. It took about 2 weeks and we arent doing what they are as far as regionally large lockdowns. It's still business as usual here sadly.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The other important piece of information to keep in mind is that the average population density of the us is considerably lower than countries overseas and we’re just much larger in general, this leads to at least one or more conclusions:
-1) even if we enact the same containment measures it will take considerably longer for the US to peak
-2) an even stronger conclusion is that because of these aforementioned geopolitical characteristics, the downward slide following the peak in cases will take much, much longer to pass in the US & thus all else considered equal, we’ll have to contend with CoV-19 much, much longer overall than other smaller, densely populated European countries
Downeastnc
Member
Not lying but by not testing as much it will cause a decrease in the daily number of new cases.....would you agree that by limiting who they are willing to test the overall number of new cases would decrease since they are not testing as many people...
As hospitals fight to keep up, they tell mild cases not to seek tests
Underscoring the continued challenges of widespread coronavirus testing, three of Georgia’s largest hospital systems urged people on Monday not to come to hospitals to be tested if they have mild or moderate symptoms.
"Underscoring the continued challenges of widespread coronavirus testing, three of Georgia’s largest hospital systems urged people on Monday not to come to hospitals to be tested if they have mild or moderate symptoms."
It wasn't an attack... it was a legit question. You aren't stupid, at all. Obviously, we aren't going to see instant results. And considering that there are still many places that aren't adhering to what everyone is recommending, it may be a while.
France is getting hammered today. 418 deaths reported.
YetAnotherRDUGuy
Member
Yea, I've thought about this too. On one hand, our urban metros are more spread out than countries overseas so we likely won't see the explosive growth per capita that Europe has seen.
On the other hand, our less dense metros are spread out all across the nation. The US has 53 metros of 1 million or more. That's a lot of...opportunity for this to stay around somewhere for longer. It might result in less spread per capita initially, but more spread over a greater amount of time. (as you mentioned).
Yellow Snow
Member
Not lying but by not testing as much it will cause a decrease in the daily number of new cases.....would you agree that by limiting who they are willing to test the overall number of new cases would decrease since they are not testing as many people...
As hospitals fight to keep up, they tell mild cases not to seek tests
Underscoring the continued challenges of widespread coronavirus testing, three of Georgia’s largest hospital systems urged people on Monday not to come to hospitals to be tested if they have mild or moderate symptoms.www.ajc.com
"Underscoring the continued challenges of widespread coronavirus testing, three of Georgia’s largest hospital systems urged people on Monday not to come to hospitals to be tested if they have mild or moderate symptoms."
From what I've read, this protocol is being practiced in a lot of places besides Georgia. Regardless, I imagine that it should become clearer - one way or the other - by the end of the coming week.
Speaking of which, anyone have any thoughts on how the cold front that's moving into the Southeast tonight might affect the situation? I seem to recall reading something about sudden large temperature variances exacerbating the incidence of sickness during the Spring flu season, but I can't find it.
Tampa megachurch crowded with worshipers, despite social distancing orders
Cheers and applause could be heard on a Tampa megachurch's livestream Sunday from a few hundred people inside The River at Tampa Bay Church. The church is refusing to close its doors despite a "safer at home" order in effect in Hillsborough County.
THIS... this right here is why the gov't is stepping in and "taking away civil rights" according to some of you. I am glad he's going to jail.
Philstorm91
Member
My own hometown has a similar church, but this one doesn't even try to implement social distancing or sanitizing for the service. Just sad. It's not very loving of others when they gather by the hundreds like that. I'm also a Christian, but we have our church online.Tampa megachurch crowded with worshipers, despite social distancing orders
Cheers and applause could be heard on a Tampa megachurch's livestream Sunday from a few hundred people inside The River at Tampa Bay Church. The church is refusing to close its doors despite a "safer at home" order in effect in Hillsborough County.www.fox13news.com
THIS... this right here is why the gov't is stepping in and "taking away civil rights" according to some of you. I am glad he's going to jail.
https://www.ksla.com/2020/03/26/bat...welcomes-large-gathering-into-church-service/
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