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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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GaWx said:
I’m praying that things don’t end up getting too severe. Unfortunately, it is still way too early to make this call and to say “didn’t” considering the incubation period, the lag time to testing once one starts having symptoms, and the greater lag time to serious symptoms and even longer to death. Also, it is important to consider that many folks are still avoiding these places as if they’re still locked down out of precaution. For example, of people I know, I don’t know a single person who has chosen to dine in a restaurant.

I’d say give it til toward the end of the month to get a much better handle on assessing the effect of the early reopenings.
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I’m talking more about the criticism Kemp received on here during the initial surge in cases. He was criticized by people saying he was stupid, didn’t have a clue, hospitals wouldn’t be overwhelmed and the death toll/infections would be crazy. It seems GA had a steady amount of infections and deaths but nothing extraordinary like people were saying would happen. Reopening things is another story entirely but when it comes to how he handled the initial surge it seems he did fine since that never got out of control and peaked awhile back.
 
snowlover91 said:
I’m talking more about the criticism Kemp received on here during the initial surge in cases. He was criticized by people saying he was stupid, didn’t have a clue, hospitals wouldn’t be overwhelmed and the death toll/infections would be crazy. It seems GA had a steady amount of infections and deaths but nothing extraordinary like people were saying would happen. Reopening things is another story entirely but when it comes to how he handled the initial surge it seems he did fine since that never got out of control and peaked awhile back.
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Some people are so afraid of being labeled as being on the wrong side of history that it clouds their view of reality.
 
snowlover91 said:
I’m talking more about the criticism Kemp received on here during the initial surge in cases. He was criticized by people saying he was stupid, didn’t have a clue, hospitals wouldn’t be overwhelmed and the death toll/infections would be crazy. It seems GA had a steady amount of infections and deaths but nothing extraordinary like people were saying would happen. Reopening things is another story entirely but when it comes to how he handled the initial surge it seems he did fine since that never got out of control and peaked awhile back.
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I was referring to you saying “didn’t” in response to @Snowflowxxl saying:

“But but but..... Brian Kemp is clueless and the numbers were gonna SPIKE I was told”

That post sounds like he’s giving the all clear as if there’s no chance for a spike any more. It is still too early to make that call. Fortunately, a lot of folks, including myself, have the common sense to avoid a lot of these places out of caution for now regardless of Kemp’s early reopenings.
 
If we're going to start seeing a Georgia problem, I think the seeds of it would be starting to grow this week based on the patterns we know. Because, regardless of if whether they were right or not, as soon as things started opening, some likely went out immediately on the day things opened to do something outside of essential things. I know my parents did immediately on the same Friday that the call to reopen happened. That salon did take a lot of precautions though.

If there's going to be a problem, you would start seeing cases grow through this week and next to me. I think you need to work through this week. Of course, if they were to start to actually grow, you wouldn't see a reversal on overall plans for at least a couple weeks IMO. Maybe never unless it just skyrockets.

Although of course, we won't know for sure on the dates of the start of illness, so maybe it does have to be end of May.
 
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snowlover91 said:
I live in NC and remember reading all the criticism Kemp got for his decisions but it seems like overall things in GA didn’t get too severe.
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Indeed - both the governors of Georgia and Florida were lambasted for their pandemic management, but New York state has more than eight times the deaths of those two states combined, despite having a total population that's 12 million people less than that of Florida and Georgia put together (GA, 10.6 million + FL, 21.4 million vs NY, 19.4 million).

1589295904238.png
 
GaWx said:
I’m praying that things don’t end up getting too severe. Unfortunately, it is still way too early to make this call and to say “didn’t” considering the incubation period, the lag time to testing once one starts having symptoms, and the greater lag time to serious symptoms/hospitalizations and even longer to death. Also, it is important to consider that many folks are still avoiding these places as if they’re still locked down out of precaution. For example, of people I know, I don’t know a single person who has chosen to dine in a restaurant. Another example: league bowling has still not started back and bowling alleys are still pretty quiet.

I’d say give it til toward the end of the month to get a much better handle on assessing the effect of the early reopenings. In the meantime, we can hope that warmer temps and higher RH will help.
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I agree it will take time to see what the true effects are of opening up. However, Kemp did point out that the shutdown met it's goal of flattening the curve and allowing for hospital capacity to increase. It was never the goal to shutdown until the virus went away or a vaccine was available even though some media outlets argue for that. I have two sizable projects that my company is depending on but are now on hold because the healthcare systems are bleeding money. We are making it for now but we are digging a hole too deep for a quick bounce back at this point.
 
GaWx said:
I was referring to you saying “didn’t” in response to @Snowflowxxl saying:

“But but but..... Brian Kemp is clueless and the numbers were gonna SPIKE I was told”

That post sounds like he’s giving the all clear as if there’s no chance for a spike any more. It is still too early to make that call. Fortunately, a lot of folks, including myself, have the common sense to avoid a lot of these places out of caution for now regardless of Kemp’s early reopenings.
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Yeah I do wonder if there is a spike how long that lead would have to be from the reopen date 14 days seems too quick, maybe 21-30? Maybe we never spike after reopening and with practices in place and more awareness we just continue on this plateau with slight ups and down indefinitely? Idk, its a tough call
 
SD said:
Yeah I do wonder if there is a spike how long that lead would have to be from the reopen date 14 days seems too quick, maybe 21-30? Maybe we never spike after reopening and with practices in place and more awareness we just continue on this plateau with slight ups and down indefinitely? Idk, its a tough call
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It will be more up than down, there is no way that returning to normal will do anything but increase the number of people exposed to the virus of which a certain % will end up hospitalized or dead. That number will be higher than it would have been had the measures stayed in place. Luckily there are things that probably are helping mitigate the pandemic, still I suspect the plateau we are on will be at the least sustained if not gradually climb....
 
GaWx said:
I was referring to you saying “didn’t” in response to @Snowflowxxl saying:

“But but but..... Brian Kemp is clueless and the numbers were gonna SPIKE I was told”

That post sounds like he’s giving the all clear as if there’s no chance for a spike any more. It is still too early to make that call. Fortunately, a lot of folks, including myself, have the common sense to avoid a lot of these places out of caution for now regardless of Kemp’s early reopenings.
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Yeah the spike being referred (At least how I interpret it) to is the initial surge where people acted like Kemp was an idiot for how he responded. I’m sure there will be an increase as things open up again but overall it seems like GA faired pretty well with the initial surge vs what people on here said would happen.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah the spike being referred (At least how I interpret it) to is the initial surge where people acted like Kemp was an idiot for how he responded. I’m sure there will be an increase as things open up again but overall it seems like GA faired pretty well with the initial surge vs what people on here said would happen.
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This chart shows the very slow venture back to restaurants. We need at least a couple more weeks to get a feel for the effects of reopenings: so far only about 10% have come back to restaurants in GA though somewhat more in TX:

A644873A-FD0A-466A-8E9E-0D8EF3E78ACA.jpeg
 
Snowflowxxl said:
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I

I think we are moving too slowly and waited too late to re-open. We have baked-in a very bad economic recession at this point. The ironic thing is that by the time we are out of this tailspin, the vulnerable people we sacrificed the economy for would have died of other natural causes. It's really too bad that we can't save all of the people, all of the time, forever. Well, we tried, though, didn't we?

Now we will have far too little resources to help save lives, of all ages. So depressing what fear and hysteria will do to people's ability to think.
 
SD said:
Yeah I do wonder if there is a spike how long that lead would have to be from the reopen date 14 days seems too quick, maybe 21-30? Maybe we never spike after reopening and with practices in place and more awareness we just continue on this plateau with slight ups and down indefinitely? Idk, its a tough call
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In Germany it has taken a month for the the R0 number to get back above 1. Thisnis the threshold they usually declare an epidemic as growing rather than reducing. Anyone declaring victory before 1 month is counting their chickens before they hatch.
 
Shaggy said:
In Germany it has taken a month for the the R0 number to get back above 1. Thisnis the threshold they usually declare an epidemic as growing rather than reducing. Anyone declaring victory before 1 month is counting their chickens before they hatch.
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Sounds like it’s because they are getting more infections in meat processing plants due to more testing.

He also said that the fewer the overall number of infections, the greater the impact of an outbreak - like those recently reported in slaughterhouses - on the R value.

Hundreds of workers in German slaughterhouses - many from Eastern Europe - have tested positive and now thousands more tests are being done in that sector. One slaughterhouse alone - in Coesfeld, North Rhine-Westphalia - has seen 260 cases.
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www.google.com

Germany not alarmed by infection rate rise - BBC News

The virus reproduction rate is above 1.0 in Germany - but experts believe it can be controlled.
www.google.com www.google.com
 
Shaggy said:
In Germany it has taken a month for the the R0 number to get back above 1. Thisnis the threshold they usually declare an epidemic as growing rather than reducing. Anyone declaring victory before 1 month is counting their chickens before they hatch.
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Interesting, that is kind of my thing the virus spreads on an exponential scale, slow burn, inflection point, rapid increase. Do we have enough measures in place to keep us from hitting that inflection point? If we hit that and cases start shooting up what will states do? Are we seeing the effects of opening back up yet in the data? Are we in a false sense of security right now as cases trail off due to cases starting to drop related to the mitigation efforts and we haven't seen the big surge in new cases?
 
Arcc said:
Sounds like it’s because they are getting more infections in meat processing plants due to more testing.



www.google.com

Germany not alarmed by infection rate rise - BBC News

The virus reproduction rate is above 1.0 in Germany - but experts believe it can be controlled.
www.google.com www.google.com
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So those 260 infections from that pork plant will cause 260 new infections and then those 260 new infections will infect 1 person. They're only seeing 1k new cases a day but that will re ain the case until either the R0 increases and infects far more people or they slow roll an epidemic at a controlled pace. It will be interesting to see because we need to be watching these places.
 
SD said:
Interesting, that is kind of my thing the virus spreads on an exponential scale, slow burn, inflection point, rapid increase. Do we have enough measures in place to keep us from hitting that inflection point? If we hit that and cases start shooting up what will states do? Are we seeing the effects of opening back up yet in the data? Are we in a false sense of security right now as cases trail off due to cases starting to drop related to the mitigation efforts and we haven't seen the big surge in new cases?
Click to expand...

The blueprint is about to be put down with other countries in front of us having eased lockdowns sooner. We shall see as ti e gues over the next 2 weeks.

My friends grandfather tested positive again and it has been 37 days since his first test. He is near death and on hospice. If we was a young adult he feasibly could have been out and about while still positive and shedding virus load. This may be a problem as we ease lockdowns.
 
Shaggy said:
So those 260 infections from that pork plant will cause 260 new infections and then those 260 new infections will infect 1 person. They're only seeing 1k new cases a day but that will re ain the case until either the R0 increases and infects far more people or they slow roll an epidemic at a controlled pace. It will be interesting to see because we need to be watching these places.
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That is assuming you get exponential growth which isn’t assured in situations such as this one. The 600+ cases in the SD meat plant sure didn’t.
 
Lowest deaths on a Tuesday in over a month. After recording under 1,000 deaths on the Sunday and Monday reports, this is certainly good news. We may be rounding a corner, especially for places like New York.

Also, the positive test rate is the second lowest so far (after yesterday’s report, which was somewhat deceptive due to a large dump of negative tests from Pennsylvania).

 
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Snowfan said:

Thread about the coronavirus.
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Came here to post this.

Mid-February as the induction date is worlds apart from what others are thinking/saying about it being here late 2019. I tend to trust this guy...



91ed3dfd24bc9e325bdc420e3ba68c92.jpg
 
superjames1992 said:
Lowest deaths on a Tuesday in over a month. After recording under 1,000 deaths on the Sunday and Monday reports, this is certainly good news. We may be rounding a corner, especially for places like New York.

Also, the positive test rate is the second lowest so far (after yesterday’s report, which was somewhat deceptive due to a large dump of negative tests from Pennsylvania).

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I hate to say this and I hope my sentiment is 100% wrong ... but there is always tomorrow's data ... ? ??
 
pcbjr said:
I hate to say this and I hope my sentiment is 100% wrong ... but there is always tomorrow's data ... ? ??
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Indeed, but Tuesdays are usually the worst day as far as reported fatalities are concerned because of the weekend backlog, so there may be hope that we see a lighter week. We’ll see. :)
 
The controversial model, IHME, updated today and has 4,413 total NC deaths by early August and a high of 64 deaths per day June 28.

NC is over a month away from its peak of this is true. This is unbelievable and doesn’t bode well for the economy, or the fall.

e94684f07d3062807b56ad4254927a23.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
The controversial model, IHME, updated today and has 4,413 total NC deaths by early August and a high of 64 deaths per day June 28.

NC is over a month away from its peak of this is true. This is unbelievable and doesn’t bode well for the economy, or the fall.

e94684f07d3062807b56ad4254927a23.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Jon,
Thanks; the modeling is probably close to reality (unlike a GFS Wake snow storm in May), and no matter how one cuts it, none of this bodes well. Stay safe and I hope those antibodies are kicking in full speed for you!
Best,
Phil
 
Jon said:
The controversial model, IHME, updated today and has 4,413 total NC deaths by early August and a high of 64 deaths per day June 28.

NC is over a month away from its peak of this is true. This is unbelievable and doesn’t bode well for the economy, or the fall.

e94684f07d3062807b56ad4254927a23.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Hmm, it was showing in the low 1,000s in the last update. Quite a big change. That model has been upping death counts with each successive update, rightly or wrongly (it was clearly way too low originally, though, back when it was showing 60-80k deaths total).


4,000 deaths certainly wouldn't be shocking, though.
 
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I’m a little curious about these models. Are social distancing efforts part of the predictions? With recent numbers flat and declining in so many areas, where are the higher predictions coming from?
 
The IHME update halved Georgia’s deaths to around 2k and increased NC’s by over 250% to over 4k. Huh??? I don’t get it. Seems off to me. I don’t see how NC finishes off with more deaths than GA.
 
superjames1992 said:
The IHME update halved Georgia’s deaths to around 2k and increased NC’s by over 250% to over 4k. Huh??? I don’t get it. Seems off to me. I don’t see how NC finishes off with more deaths than GA.
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These models are simply ridiculous.
 
superjames1992 said:
The IHME update halved Georgia’s deaths to around 2k and increased NC’s by over 250% to over 4k. Huh??? I don’t get it. Seems off to me. I don’t see how NC finishes off with more deaths than GA.
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That model is all over the place and had constantly overstated hospitalizations in Georgia.
 
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