pcbjr
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Agree and the like is for the message, not its substance ...
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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)
- Thread starter GaWx
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Another death from High Point tied to Tyson in Wilkes. Also today’s announcement confirms 3rd outbreak here at Rose Glenn villages.
We’re in only inning 2 of 9 I’m guessing. ?
pcbjr
Member
and the home team is down by 10 runs, and we don't have relief pitcher in the bull pen ...
Shaggy
Member
Saw on TV today that the basic curve in a pandemic is that from the point the peak is obtained there would/could be as many deaths on the downward slope of the curve so basically a doubling if the deaths at peak.
Just some talking heads so not sure of its accuracy.
Jon
Member
Current infections/testing/daily case rate/openings all go into the equation. NC’s was upped definitely due to starting phased opening.
pcbjr
Member
and that assumes a continuous downward trend on infections from the "peak" ... ever walked in the mountains, ridge top to ridge top? Down, up, down up ...
Jon
Member
It appears they think GA has hit its peak cases/day and deaths/day already. And NC is still a month out. It’s confusing because of the vague methodology, we don’t know exactly why.
Jon
Member
My educated guess is that we’re headed to 300-500K US deaths for the total pandemic.
Not far off probably. We are forgetting fall and winter. And subsequent fall and winter of 21-22 as well. Sigh...we’re in this for the long run. Hopefully sports return in 2021 after a vaccine. I can’t see college basketball or football being played this season
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Shaggy
Member
A.friend of mine goes into the next phase of a clinical trial with in hospital patients to test another anti-viral after the hydroxchlorine failure. Shes a bit nervous of being with the covid patients but she knows this research is needed.
If we can get a treatment that just keeps people off ventilators thats a huge deal.
Shaggy
Member
Not liking this article. Seems to throw some ice on the antibody testing when they say their studies showing less infections. Or am I misunderstanding what they're saying?
www.yahoo.com
Coronavirus: Number of people infected probably much lower than first thought, WHO warns
COVID-19 has already killed at least 286,000 people and infected 4.1 million based on official statistics, Johns Hopkins University data shows.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I can't imagine them not fighting very hard to avoid cancelling college football. Because if they cancel that, you are going to see mid major and small schools have to shutter some of their sports forever as well. At the ABSOLUTE MOST...I can see spring, maybe (which would be odd for sure).
If you do see a season played, it might be the end of the NCAA controlling things actually and it could potentially be a huge blow to the Pac 12 (which was declining already). Although California basically said they're going full online for fall already, Emmert also said recently that they are going to leave it up to the conferences on what they want to do. It could POSSIBLY be a case in which the Pac 12 decides to not play but other areas do.
Greg Sankey said that they would be willing to do a round robin SEC schedule if needed, but also said that we won't play if you can't do it safely. That does not sound good, but considering there have been talks about restarting other sports without a vaccine, it doesn't rule out the SEC playing (and I would probably say they're the most likely conference to).
As it is, if you think that you can't do any sports without a vaccine, it could well go longer than the rest of 2020. The fastest vaccine so far has been 4 years...
If you do see a season played, it might be the end of the NCAA controlling things actually and it could potentially be a huge blow to the Pac 12 (which was declining already). Although California basically said they're going full online for fall already, Emmert also said recently that they are going to leave it up to the conferences on what they want to do. It could POSSIBLY be a case in which the Pac 12 decides to not play but other areas do.
Greg Sankey said that they would be willing to do a round robin SEC schedule if needed, but also said that we won't play if you can't do it safely. That does not sound good, but considering there have been talks about restarting other sports without a vaccine, it doesn't rule out the SEC playing (and I would probably say they're the most likely conference to).
As it is, if you think that you can't do any sports without a vaccine, it could well go longer than the rest of 2020. The fastest vaccine so far has been 4 years...
Shaggy
Member
I cant stress enough how important it is for our policy makers to be watching the roadmap that's unfolding in front of us.
www.businessinsider.com
Germany's daily coronavirus case count has nearly tripled as regions consider an 'emergency brake' to reinstate harsher lockdowns
Germany's Robert Koch Institute announced 933 new coronavirus cases early Tuesday. The country's departure from lockdown has not been smooth.
www.businessinsider.com
So the doc told my nephews today they had to shave their heads. Has anyone else been told this if positive?
Wait a sec, so all the articles mentioning Germany’s 900 cases on May 12 and thus a “rise” yet not one peep about the 357 cases on May 11 which is the lowest one day total since early March? I hate the media.
I cant stress enough how important it is for our policy makers to be watching the roadmap that's unfolding in front of us.
Germany's daily coronavirus case count has nearly tripled as regions consider an 'emergency brake' to reinstate harsher lockdowns
Germany's Robert Koch Institute announced 933 new coronavirus cases early Tuesday. The country's departure from lockdown has not been smooth.
Germany's ministry of health announced today that R-value has fallen back below 1. There was an article posted in this thread yesterday from the BBC indicating that rise in numbers in Germany was due to a couple outbreaks at meat packing plants.
The reality is that until there's a vaccine, the virus is going to continue to spread. Period. A perpetual (12-month +) lock-down isn't realistic so we need to find happy medium. Folks (mainly media) seem to be actively rooting against places that have eased restrictions like Georgia, Florida, Germany, Sweden (never had lock-down), etc. seemingly so they can be proven "right" that reopening was a bad idea. I think we need to realize that we, as a society, are going to have to find a way to live life/co-exist with this virus prevalent for at least the short-term future.
Shouldn't we all be rooting FOR places that have re-opened to have relative "success" so they can pave the way for a successful reopening of other cities and countries around the world? Is that too much to ask? Probably so, given society's propensity for dissension these days...
NCSNOW
Member
Some of the states that skeptics were most worried about, including Florida and Georgia, haven’t seen the rise in total cases that some experts feared.
High-risk states are seeing fewer new coronavirus cases
Sam Baker
- Florida’s new cases have actually declined by 14% compared to the previous week, and Georgia’s fell by 12%.
High-risk states are seeing fewer new coronavirus cases
Sam Baker
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Do you forget the key thing about the virus being dormant for up to 2 weeks? Give it time and we will see.Some of the states that skeptics were most worried about, including Florida and Georgia, haven’t seen the rise in total cases that some experts feared.
Heres the link to article.
- Florida’s new cases have actually declined by 14% compared to the previous week, and Georgia’s fell by 12%.
High-risk states are seeing fewer new coronavirus cases
Sam Baker
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I would guess more like 100k to 300k. I think we are in inning 7 of 9. I like to be realistically optimistic!
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Ok, give it as much time as you want. Eventually the skeptics will eat crow, however.
pcbjr
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Florida, with the "official" stats as of Noon yesterday (understanding that certain data is not included by the Governor's fiat) ...Some of the states that skeptics were most worried about, including Florida and Georgia, haven’t seen the rise in total cases that some experts feared.
Heres the link to article.
- Florida’s new cases have actually declined by 14% compared to the previous week, and Georgia’s fell by 12%.
High-risk states are seeing fewer new coronavirus cases
Sam Baker
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Give it a month exactly and we see where we end up case wise without a significant decrease in testing.
Shaggy
Member
Rooting for success absolutely. Paying attention to reality on the ground also is a necessity. Theres no reason we shouldn't be picking every piece of data from nations that are ahead of us apart and analyzing it.
Just from a mathematics perspective there is a long long long way to go. Some one correct me on this but 328 million people in the US, 1.4 million confirmed cases, being generous lets say there are 2 million unconfirmed/asymptomatic cases, that leaves you with 324.6 million susceptible people or 99% of the population.
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Well, testing is going to go down, too, if the infections are decreasing. The one metric that never remained constant is this entire equation has been number of tests.
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I think you're off on that. We have 1.4 million cases right now. You don't know how many have developed immunity from past exposure. That number could be way higher (like 70 million), especially if this has been making rounds since late December. Some areas are definitely gaining herd immunity now.
Although I don’t believe we’re anywhere near inning 7, I hope you’re right and I’m wrong. With it now over 80K and still not slowing down much even with all of the safety measures (would have been much higher now without these measures), I don’t see how the lower end of your range has any chance. At our current rate plus reopenings, aren’t we already headed to 100K within just a couple of weeks?
All the news articles I’ve read said there is likely are 5-10x as many cases as reported so that would mean 7 to 14 million. The problem is how do we know the asymptomatic rate which obviously isn’t constant. Is it 30% or 50% or like the the cases of the TN prison like 99%. I’ve also seen studies that suggest a large number of people may not be able to be infected.
In the end, who knows.
Jon
Member
Given the data from NYC and NY State, my guess for USA-wide antibodies is
“New York State is conducting an antibody testing survey to develop a baseline infection rate. The preliminary results of phase two show 14.9 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies. The preliminary results of phase one of the state's antibody testing survey released on April 23rd showed 13.9 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies.”
My guess for USA-wide as of today would be 5-10% at best. We can’t assume USA-side is at ~15% like NY.
70 million would be nice and certainly mean that we are on a better road to herd immunity. Even then though if we need 70ish % to achieve effective herd immunity would need to see 50% more of the US infected.
I have a 6 month routine dental cleaning/exam scheduled for next week. My high risk and disabled bro lives in my house and I’m his primary caregiver. If it were you, would you postpone this dental appointment until it is safer knowing that you have had no recent problems with teeth or gums? I’ve never in my entire life put off a semiannual cleaning. As it is out of an abundance of caution, I hardly go anywhere other than walking in the evening in the non crowded park. Opinions appreciated!
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marino13882
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If it's just a routine cleaning, I would push it back.
pcbjr
Member
No.
Phil, do you mean “no” as in don’t go (which I’m assuming) as opposed to “no” as in don’t postpone?
pcbjr
Member
No as in the former ... why risk yourself or your brother ... just brush good until it's a bit safer ... IMHO
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Yes, I would postpone. Wait it out for another 3 months, i'd say.
D
Deleted member 1449
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Two consecutive days now with 50 new cases in Forsyth County (N.C.) and hospitalizations have spiked into the ~530s. Don't know if the spike in Forsyth is still related to Tyson or if it represents community spread. Either way, not much positive today for NC.
Jon
Member
I’d postpone...if you go every 6mo and this is your first miss, your teeth are probably in top shape. I go every 6mo too so I know how you feel about keeping your mouth healthy, it’s very important.
Another year or so, sure you’ll have more plaque and yeah they’ll have to scrape for a while, but it’s not the end of the world!
Longest I went was 1.5 years due to insurance issues and yeah it was gross but no cavities, they just had to sit there and scrape like hell...lol
Wilkes up to 261. Does not include private testing. I bet years from now Tyson may get sued for not disclosing all test results but idk.
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