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Deleted member 1449
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A pastor friend of mine lost his grandmother last night to COVID. She was in the Northampton nursing home.
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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)
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Shaggy
Member
This is weird to me. The pattern for SARS-COV2 has been rapid transmission lots of sick and dying in short period of time creating a sharp spike or curve.
How would it be possible for this virus to "slow burn" for months without the spike we are seeing now? I can see cases in February being missed but people talking as far back as Novemebr of December? I would need to see some serious hard facts.
To me that's like lighting a stick of dynamite and having half the stick blow up slowly then all of a sudden the rest of the stick go off.
Only explanation I can fathom under currently known facts would be if the virus was here in a milder form then mutated into this current strain.
This is weird to me. The pattern for SARS-COV2 has been rapid transmission lots of sick and dying in short period of time creating a sharp spike or curve.
How would it be possible for this virus to "slow burn" for months without the spike we are seeing now? I can see cases in February being missed but people talking as far back as Novemebr of December? I would need to see some serious hard facts.
To me that's like lighting a stick of dynamite and having half the stick blow up slowly then all of a sudden the rest of the stick go off.
Only explanation I can fathom under currently known facts would be if the virus was here in a milder form then mutated into this current strain.
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Yeah. I have no idea but I still feel like I may have had it back in January.. I will get tested when I'm able to to find out..
How would it be possible for this virus to "slow burn" for months without the spike we are seeing now? I can see cases in February being missed but people talking as far back as Novemebr of December? I would need to see some serious hard facts.
To me that's like lighting a stick of dynamite and having half the stick blow up slowly then all of a sudden the rest of the stick go off.
Only explanation I can fathom under currently known facts would be if the virus was here in a milder form then mutated into this current strain.
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Yeah. I have no idea but I still feel like I may have had it back in January.. I will get tested when I'm able to to find out..
smast16
Member
Details on this antibody test need to be known and tested. Basically, could another mild form of a coronavirus tripping these antibody tests, or are these ONLY for Sars-Cov-2.
snowlover91
Member
Maybe there were more cases of it diagnosed as the flu or pneumonia or something else initially? Perhaps it takes a large number of people infected to actually cause issues with a small percentage? Maybe for example for every 1k infected you get 200 who actually are serious enough to go to the hospital? Could make sense with some research pointing to very high percentages of people with little to no symptoms?
Where did you get this and is it available for other states?
Shaggy
Member
Possibly. You.could look at hospitalizations in December and January to look for any high anomaly that would be higher than the usual flu numbers.
With the R0 being so high on this virus it's just hard to fathom it taking this long to explode if it had been here any earlier than late Jan. Anyone sick from late Jan through Feb has a legitimate concern imo.
I can think of two possible explanations if this is true that is.
One, is where it actually isn't super infectious person to person. In this way it spreads very slowly, mostly hitting people who don't know they are sick, and the ones that do get really sick or die, it's chalked up to just an unknown virus or other health problems. Then you have a mass spreading event and it explodes and by the time it's found out everyone is way behind the curve. This actually fits what has happened in Washington State and why they aren't NYC. They never had the mass seeding event.
The other is that it is just like the Oxford study thought. It is mild on a normal basis, but it just infects so many it reaches critical mass among those it hits hardest.
It really is amazing how we still know so little about this, yet we can figure out the sequence of events to what took down an airliner.
Edit: Also to clarrify, thia guy in the tweet says he traveled over seas, and may has gotten it there.
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smast16
Member
Hearing things that AL will have shelter in place announced later today. I'll leave it at that.
Shaggy
Member
This virus sucks big fat donkey.......never mind
www.yahoo.com
A small trial finds that hydroxychloroquine is not effective for treating coronavirus
On Saturday the Food and Drug Administration approved the use of two antimalarial drugs, hydroxychloroquine and a related medication, chloroquine, for emergency use to treat COVID-19. The drugs were touted by President Trump as a “game changer” for COVID-19. However, a study just published in a...
I'm not sure why the CDC and the president are recommending all of us wear some kind fake mask when out shopping. Is this more of a reminder for us to keep our distance from each other? I'm pretty sure my bandana ain't going to keep out COVID-19, or keep me from sharing it if I unknowingly have it.
Its probably more to keep you from touching your face tbh
Storm5
Member
thanksgivingbrown
Member
It’s pathetic she had to “give in.” She should have ordered a shelter in place a week ago when she rolled out that half-assed attempt. All these half measures are just gonna prolong the spread.
Sad... interesting though the Health Director of Northampton Co keeps saying all patients are doing well with no serious issues. This makes the 2nd death from that facility
jaymackd3
Member
Do you have a link or is it just hear say right now? I've just seen "suggestions" for her to do it...but nothing concrete at this point. As far as I can see on her twitter...people are pretty pissed it's taken this long.
Sandbar
Member
There are several larger studies that suggest otherwise. I guess we will know soon as the FDA has now approved itThis virus sucks big fat donkey.......never mind
A small trial finds that hydroxychloroquine is not effective for treating coronavirus
On Saturday the Food and Drug Administration approved the use of two antimalarial drugs, hydroxychloroquine and a related medication, chloroquine, for emergency use to treat COVID-19. The drugs were touted by President Trump as a “game changer” for COVID-19. However, a study just published in a...
This virus sucks big fat donkey.......never mind
A small trial finds that hydroxychloroquine is not effective for treating coronavirus
On Saturday the Food and Drug Administration approved the use of two antimalarial drugs, hydroxychloroquine and a related medication, chloroquine, for emergency use to treat COVID-19. The drugs were touted by President Trump as a “game changer” for COVID-19. However, a study just published in a...
Be wary of Yahoo "News" whenever it releases stories that are anti-Trump as it has a blatant anti-Trump bias on par with MSNBC and CNN as regards what stories it pushes. So, I take Yahoo releases that are anti-Trump with a grain. Now, I'm not saying the referred to French study is necessarily misleading. However, also keep in mind that it was very small (only 11 people).
Edit: For those who don't know, I'm not at all a Trump supporter. However, at the same time, I also realize that the vast majority of non-Fox News media is anti-Trump although Trump brings a lot of this on himself.
Shaggy
Member
Agreed but typically when the article links directly to the study I give it a greenlight because its reporting is verifiable.
Let's hope the bigger study ongoing in NYC gives a better picture.
Right now, just hear say, but it's very reliable hear say. So take it as you will. It makes sense considering every other state around us has done it.
I had the worst sickness I’ve experienced in years right around the end of January/early February (granted, I don’t get sick much in general). Lots of aches, fatigue, and a sore throat, then runny nose in subsequent days. It was almost certainly just a cold as the symptoms fit that more so, but I do wonder a little bit as I don’t ever remember a cold being that severe before.
Yellow Snow
Member
Indeed - but a sample of 11 patients in a country with 30,000+ confirmed cases is dispositive of absolutely nothing.
This is when the news fails and ends up panicking everyone. Obviously no one here thought to find out what the model is based on or the fact that the model hasn't update daily deaths for AL for three days and according to the model 18 people in died yesterday. The real number, possibly four...
smast16
Member
This is when the news fails and ends up panicking everyone. Obviously no one here thought to find out what the model is based on or the fact that the model hasn't update daily deaths for AL for three days and according to the model 18 people in died yesterday. The real number, possibly four...
Am I reading this right that these models are like our weather models in the essence there is a "Ensamble" system to them? (This is For NC)
Look at the bottom of the shading, looks like a low end Ensemble predicts the peak deaths Here in a week or two, vs the worst case scenario being Many Many more per day around the 29th.
Yep that's the way I read them too... the 51 a day peak is basically the mean and with the range for that day between 8-107. Anything from "not nearly as bad as we thought" to "it's a disaster".
Louisiana deaths went up by 60 to a total of 370. The LDH website now allows you to see the total ventilator and ICU capacity in LA by region, which is a really good feature.
My daughter tried to get me to pull my shemagh out of storage with my military gear and wear it. I asked her if she was going to wash it since it’s been stored for a few years. She said no and I said I wasn’t wearing it because it wasn’t clean when I threw it in a sea bag with my other crap and stored it. I’d probably come down with some kind of weird virus from that.
Edit: on another note, just hearing her playing Joe Cocker’s “You Are So Beautiful” on the piano and singing has lifted my spirits this afternoon.
Well, it’s happened. They’re treating patients at our hospital and they’re in ICU.
www.dailyadvance.com
Sentara Albemarle treating COVID-19 patients in ICU
Sentara Albemarle Medical Center is currently treating COVID-19 patients in its intensive care unit and is well prepared to care for even larger numbers of coronavirus patients, two critical care
Pretty much as I understand. The flaw being it uses daily deaths to calculate it all, not current cases or current total deaths. Right now their model is running too hot and having to adjust lower each update for many of the southern states. It also leads to some very crazy outcomes. When AL released the backlogged deaths in one day this past week, the model went from 1143 total deaths to over 7k. It corrected a little to over 5k when it finally was imputed that AL closed all no essential business but still hasnt updated the daily death count of the past two days which is much lower than what it predicted.
That said it is interesting to watch. I hope the peak is right, because our state's are sitting great if it is right.
smast16
Member
Well Since it's another model to watch, i saved the link to my Meteorology bookmarks Folder. ?
I think the other day it had MS having between 200 to 4000 people die. It makes the GEFS look good.
This guy right here, wow!!
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