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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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NCSNOW said:
I give up . Trying to explain to you guys why people compare it to the flu doesnt mean anyone is saying its not as bad as the flu or 10x worse.

Its a metric of a known quantity. To then form conclusions from.
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We really don't have a lot of good analogs. Personally, I don't mind the flu comparisons as long as there's an acknowledgement of where the comparisons end and the contrasts begin. It tends to be either/or...and it's really not that way. It's like finding a good analog in seasonal forecasting. Usually, you have to make some concessions as there's hardly ever a perfect match.

I think the people have a good idea of what the flu is and what a cold is, anecdotally. I don't think people have a good idea of what a novel virus is or the risks associated with it. I don't think people have a good idea in general about how viruses behave. This virus is new. There appear to be multiple strains. The mortality rate is evolving. There has been conflicting data around how infectious it is, mode of transmission, how long it can live on surfaces, etc. There's still a lot of research and learning to be done. Information will change as infections grow. With the flu, most of these are known quantities. At least, you can get to an average baseline.

The flu is established and people are familiar with its effects. It is going to take some time for us to truly understand this virus. But if one is going to really try and draw objective comparisons/contrasts between Coronavirus and whatever analog they choose, they really ought to immerse themselves in the details beyond the headlines.

In my opinion, it is better to be more cautious with a new virus than to try and reduce it to something that is seen as normal and not all that bad. These things have a way of humbling us, especially when we feel like we have it all under control.
 
Webberweather53 said:
You can't compare CoV-19 to the flu when the CoV has yet to have any chance to infect the entire population for a very significant portion of time (more than several months).

That's the logical equivalent of someone saying "Wow! This category 5 hurricane that's headed towards my house isn't so bad! What's all this hype about?!" when you've only gone thru first outer rain band.
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You’re right Webb, let’s see how the totals look at the end of the peek season. What I’m saying is that if you look at the worse outbreaks from the flu in our past this virus is as bad yet . But saying this is worse at this point is just as bad as someone saying it’s not.


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NoSnowATL said:
You’re right Webb, let’s see how the totals look at the end of the peek season. What I’m saying is that if you look at the worse outbreaks from the flu in our past this virus is as bad yet . But saying this is worse at this point is just as bad as someone saying it’s not.


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Serious question: Is the science so far in fact showing it is worse than the common flu?

Hopefully, we don't get to the end of peak season 2021 where there is an entire season with this thing.
 
Not to make light of the situation; but a Wal Mart associate in KY has tested positive for COVID-19; which means that anyone who went to that store to buy toilet paper in a "panic" could now have the disease, in which case they will be quarantined at home and thus in great need of much toilet paper.

Just goes to show that it wasn't panic after all.
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NoSnowATL said:
You’re right Webb, let’s see how the totals look at the end of the peek season. What I’m saying is that if you look at the worse outbreaks from the flu in our past this virus is as bad yet . But saying this is worse at this point is just as bad as someone saying it’s not.


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Per individuals affected it's definitely worse and that's not debatable. For younger folks sure it may not be worse but for elderly, there really is no debate, thus the net effect is worse per capita.

Comparing the flu to CoV-19 is like comparing Hurricane Sandy (large lumbering, weaker cat 1 that impacted tens of millions of people) to Hurricane Andrew (which was a tiny, powerful category 5 that decimated a small section of south Florida). Just because a lot less people are being effected by a much stronger virus right at this very moment doesn't mean that virus isn't "worse" or vis versa. They're both really bad and to decrease the significance of one in favor of the other or to associate/attach some underlying value to people's lives as it pertains to either CoV-19 or influenza is not the way to approach this problem imo
 
Nerman said:
Serious question: Is the science so far in fact showing it is worse than the common flu?

Hopefully, we don't get to the end of peak season 2021 where there is an entire season with this thing.
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I think it is spreading faster and easier but not by much. Flu season never ends and this virus isn’t going to either. So you can say 365 day total to be fair but you can’t because the typical flu season starts and ends in a different years. That’s why we have peek seasons from fall to spring. Plus the flu is different every year. Heck next year the C-19 could become C-20. Viruses are always changing and mutations occur all the time.


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Webberweather53 said:
Per individuals affected it's definitely worse and that's not debatable. For younger folks sure it may not be worse but for elderly, there really is no debate, thus the net effect is worse per capita.

Comparing the flu to CoV-19 is like comparing Hurricane Sandy (large lumbering, weaker cat 1 that impacted tens of millions of people) to Hurricane Andrew (which was a tiny, powerful category 5 that decimated a small section of south Florida). Just because a lot less people are being effected by a much stronger virus right at this very moment doesn't mean that virus isn't "worse" or vis versa. They're both really bad and to decrease the significance of one in favor of the other or to associate/attach some underlying value to people's lives as it pertains to either CoV-19 or influenza is not the way to approach this problem imo
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So what would you compare this virus too? You have to compare it to something right? If you don’t how do you know it’s worse?


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This is really the big elephant in the room when it comes to the Coronavirus above most else. Given that roughly 15-20% of cases require hospitalization, when CoV-19 is superimposed on top of the seasonal flu and a crappy nationalized healthcare system that already boasts long wait times, our healthcare system simply CAN NOT handle the excess number of patients that are going to be admitted thanks to the Coronavirus.

We are not prepared for this... at all.
 
NoSnowATL said:
So what would you compare this virus too? You have to compare it to something right? If you don’t how do you know it’s worse?


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Comparing to something involves analyzing both similarities and differences, the latter usually gets lost in the shuffle of the word "comparison". Saying things like "it's not much different than the flu!" or "ya know, "x" number of people are affected by the flu every season vs "y" for the coronavirus (when the latter hasn't had a chance to fully impact the population)" provides many an unnecessary amount of complacency wrt the Coronavirus when none should be warranted.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Comparing to something involves analyzing both similarities and differences, the latter usually gets lost in the shuffle of the word "comparison". Saying things like "it's not much different than the flu!" or "ya know, "x" number of people are affected by the flu every season vs "y" for the coronavirus (when the latter hasn't had a chance to fully impact the population)" provides many an unnecessary amount of complacency wrt the Coronavirus when none should be warranted.
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I agree, that’s why I’ll wait and see how thing round out in the next few months.


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NoSnowATL said:
So what would you compare this virus too? You have to compare it to something right? If you don’t how do you know it’s worse?


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Some people saying this is worse than the flu are making a direct comparison to the flu (otherwise there would be no way to make the statement that it's worse), yet harpooning others for comparing it. ?

Come on everyone, there are certainly two camps here. One thinks this thing is really blowing up and will cripple the country (may globe) and are willing to go to whatever means necessary to try to prevent it. The other camp thinks that is probably very unlikely and that most people are recovering from this and there is no need (at this point) to call for wide spread fear and interuption of daily life (and that doing so at this point would make matters worse). We don't seem to be making much headway to consensus here but let's remember we're all part of the human family here and we all want what's best. Hopefully we can at least listen to each other (maybe we can all learn something) and remember the person behind the typing is a bro or sis somewhere.
 
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