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Pattern Caperil 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
As a reminder, a thread was created for the severe weather potential from 4/27 to 4/30.
April 27-30th Severe Threat
There's been a pretty good signal for yet another severe weather event to impact a large part of the deep south during this period. The main question at this time is the timing of the trough. A faster timing would knock OK/TX out of the equation. But either way, it does seem increasingly likely...
southernwx.com
That's the one. Kind of surprised the spread isn't even bigger toward the end with the trough moving through the NE then off the coast. If we can dampen the ridging enough and back the front in maybe a solid wedge severe threat
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I’ll take ensemble 50 in the long range ?
We’re gonna bake 
That's fooking terrible
That's got some lee trough vibes what's mslp look like?
Geez
Well now I know I'm not crazy and it has been dry
From Greg Fishel on FB:
NUMBERS, PERCEPTIONS, AND REALITIES
Just a post about how one can use data or parts of data to make any point they so desire. For instance, isn't it perplexing that the period December 1 - February 28 was the second wettest winter on record at RDU, falling only .03" short of achieving first place. Then, along comes climatological Spring, and so far, we are the 8th driest on record, and if we go through Friday without any measurable rain, which is a distinct possibility, we will ascend to second place on the dryness ladder, with 2/3 of climatological spring behind us. Let's say this trend continues through May, and is followed by an unusually dry Summer and an unusually wet Fall. It would be very possible for one to look at the entire year and say "Just another uneventful, average year", while those who look at the year in more detail might say "I swear it rained every day last Winter, and I was so depressed. Then Spring came, and it was very pleasant but my grass started to look a little dry. Then Summer came with heat and a lack of rain, and the farmers really suffered. Finally those tropical systems in the Fall really made a mess of things with flooding." Of course all this is hypothetical, but details do matter. Anyone remember the -9ºF reading at RDU on January 21, 1985? We annihilated the old all-time record low of -2ºF by 7 full degrees, when the mercury plunged to -9ºF that morning. So that was a really cold winter, right? Nope! It was very close to average. Sometimes perception and reality are two entirely different entities. It always helps to verify one's hypothesis.
From Greg Fishel on FB:
NUMBERS, PERCEPTIONS, AND REALITIES
Just a post about how one can use data or parts of data to make any point they so desire. For instance, isn't it perplexing that the period December 1 - February 28 was the second wettest winter on record at RDU, falling only .03" short of achieving first place. Then, along comes climatological Spring, and so far, we are the 8th driest on record, and if we go through Friday without any measurable rain, which is a distinct possibility, we will ascend to second place on the dryness ladder, with 2/3 of climatological spring behind us. Let's say this trend continues through May, and is followed by an unusually dry Summer and an unusually wet Fall. It would be very possible for one to look at the entire year and say "Just another uneventful, average year", while those who look at the year in more detail might say "I swear it rained every day last Winter, and I was so depressed. Then Spring came, and it was very pleasant but my grass started to look a little dry. Then Summer came with heat and a lack of rain, and the farmers really suffered. Finally those tropical systems in the Fall really made a mess of things with flooding." Of course all this is hypothetical, but details do matter. Anyone remember the -9ºF reading at RDU on January 21, 1985? We annihilated the old all-time record low of -2ºF by 7 full degrees, when the mercury plunged to -9ºF that morning. So that was a really cold winter, right? Nope! It was very close to average. Sometimes perception and reality are two entirely different entities. It always helps to verify one's hypothesis.
I blame @Myfrotho704_ and @SD for this .. all that pushing for warmth and look where we’ve come ... now we got no severe weather, probably hot and humid conditions, and a mega drought incoming ... yalls grass ain’t getting any better in these conditions .. we all taking L’s now SHIIIIIIIIIII
00z GFS continues to tease with temp profile supportive of 90s here Sunday - Wednesday.
Still color be skeptical.
Still color be skeptical.
Brent
Member
Snow a week ago 86 today... And it's 71 at midnight
GFS gets us hot but man it has some good cape everywhere with storms around
znel52
Member
Although I don't really want the heat I am ready to get one of those stalled Summertime frontal boundaries that give us probs for pop up Thunderstorms like 7 days in a row.
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maybe if we didn't have a dry NW flow for the past 3 weeks we would have had more rain and wouldn't need it now
Oh that’s beautiful 
CAPE is fairly low? What's gonna make stuff pop with this setup?
BHS1975
Member
GFS is always low with cape, storms with low cape can happen if lapse rates are good, and there’s a MCV
LickWx
Member
The 500 ? in my yard didn't seem to mind the cold
Geez VA 
67F already
This is suppose to be a ------- superasscomputer
Not complaining tho ?
Something about this look is getting me 
75F 
That's a good look to try to activate the lee trough or get an organized area to the north/west that moves in
79F forecasted high is 82
Cirrus has held. Can see the clearing to my east. 75F
Nice 
