Pattern Caperil 2021

[TileDude]

Icon crapping out on rain this weekend. Euro is 0.00 here through D10. She's a beaut clark:
View attachment 82453

While in North Central Alabama we can’t get a break from the rain. Over 32” for the year so far...

 

[SD]

While in North Central Alabama we can’t get a break from the rain. Over 32” for the year so far...

I mean if you want to share

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This euro run is about to torch us, funny how in May 2019 we were in a similar boat with rainfall, if we continue to stay dry we’re gonna tac up temps to these warmups and dig ourselves in a deeper hole rainfall wise

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wait a minuteee ?

 

[SD]

Wait a minuteee ?View attachment 82460

That's dry here but a nice severe weather outbreak in the mid Atlantic and NE

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That's dry here but a nice severe weather outbreak in the mid Atlantic and NE

Of course. Last summer all over again except in the spring, I though that thing would maybe start digging but Na, we suck

 

[SD]

Of course. Last summer all over again except in the spring, I though that thing would maybe start digging but Na, we suck

Yep the last 4 weeks have kind of been crap WRT flow aloft.

 

[JHS]

Once the May thread is a thing I’ll post it there but my May forecast lol View attachment 82451

Looks good out west with the severe drought in progress out there.

 

[JHS]

I doubt big drought but I could see a streak of BN precip inbound until mid summer

Probably not major drought this year in the southeast. I also do not think we bake either. The death ridge will be there, stronger than ever, but will set up in the 4 corners.

 

[SD]

Probably not major drought this year in the southeast. I also do not think we bake either. The death ridge will be there, stronger than ever, but will set up in the 4 corners.

Oh dear God if you aren't on the drought and heat train we are doomed

 

[JHS]

At some point we’re going to have to bank on a tropical system to help us out

I thought NC would do better on Sat, but the big band just never could get up there. Got 1.10 here though.

 

[LickWx]

Oh dear God if you aren't on the drought and heat train we are doomed

Exactly what I was going to say. 2010 here we come ?

 

[JakkelWx]

Probably not major drought this year in the southeast. I also do not think we bake either. The death ridge will be there, stronger than ever, but will set up in the 4 corners.

Probably will end up linking with the Bermuda high/SER.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Probably will end up linking with the Bermuda high/SER.

Love those setups when they happen, means little pieces of energy from storms the other day and given the higher heights, those days under the ridge typically have big cape, just takes little triggering and you have a big multicell cluster coming off the NC mountains

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Man that’s a warm EPS run, lots of eastern ridging/western trough on it

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Man that’s a warm EPS run, lots of eastern ridging/western trough on it View attachment 82463View attachment 82467View attachment 82464View attachment 82465View attachment 82466

Low 80s though? Perfect keep the 90s at bay with all this ridging then when we actually get to summer hopefully we can mix up the pattern and bring on more rain and severe

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Low 80s though? Perfect keep the 90s at bay with all this ridging then when we actually get to summer hopefully we can mix up the pattern and bring on more rain and severe

Yeah but the unfortunate part is that the pattern has lots of Potential to produce 90s as we go ahead, especially since average temperatures continue to climb, and things dry up, trust me I’m starting to get into that range where I want some cooler BUT rainy/stormy days

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS lookin wetter

 

[Myfrotho704_]

yesthhh, maybe some low end severe wx with this sort of look

 

[SD]

Yeah but the unfortunate part is that the pattern has lots of Potential to produce 90s as we go ahead, especially since average temperatures continue to climb, and things dry up, trust me I’m starting to get into that range where I want some cooler BUT rainy/stormy days

What is the box and whisker looking like from that eps run? That got awfully wedgy toward the end of the run