• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern August '22

Here's a little fantasy stuff; the CFS is showing a cool pattern from day 12 all the way to early September. I'll have to see it to believe it but that would be very welcome.

Day 12 dew points:
1659477471234.png

www.pivotalweather.com

Models: CFS - Pivotal Weather

View CFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
 
FallsLake said:
Here's a little fantasy stuff; the CFS is showing a cool pattern from day 12 all the way to early September. I'll have to see it to believe it but that would be very welcome.

Day 12 dew points:
View attachment 120370

www.pivotalweather.com

Models: CFS - Pivotal Weather

View CFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
Click to expand...
Not my fantasy. Show dews in the 70's under heavy rain!
 
Come to papa!CFCFF2F1-3785-4887-BADB-AE454B4152E9.png
 
Here’s a radar so Rain_Cold can understand! ??139F2B08-DC4E-4EC0-B19C-553FA6D7618A.png
 
Pretty interesting discussion from from GSP 1215pm:

Today might end up a lot more active than previously thought. Model
guidance shows the Bermuda high/Atlantic subtropical ridge
re-asserting control of our weather pattern today with
some authority as the low level flow veers to S and SW this
afternoon. In general, this should bring more low level moisture
into the western Carolinas. The forecast is complicated by the
guidance being in two camps with regard to how much or how fast
the moisture returns. The GFS and HRRR mix out the dewpoints during
the afternoon such that sfc-based CAPE might only reach about 1500
J/kg, and altho fcst soundings show profiles that are uncapped,
this would be a limiting factor for coverage and intensity, perhaps
isolated at best. Meanwhile...the NAM/WRF/FV3 keep the sfc dewpt
much higher such that we would have very robust sfc-based CAPE
in excess of 4000 J/kg...or on the order of three times what the
GFS/HRRR show. Profiles are uncapped, naturally, and if that
much buoyancy develops, we can expect some vigorous updrafts
and several pulse-severe-type storms. Those solutions have much
greater coverage of storms late this afternoon. The guidance blend
really tones all this down, as does the Day 1 Convective Outlook,
so for the time being the fcst will be on the conservative side,
but this seems like kind of a 55/45 proposition. The more active
scenario is very much a possibility, so don`t be surprised late
this afternoon if it all blows up. Or not. If they develop,
storms may carry on into the late evening as they use up all
the instability. Temps will be above normal for highs and the
heat index will push 100 over the lower Piedmont, but think heat
advisory will be just out of reach. Afterward, expect the usual
convective debris and localized fog/stratus where rain fell in
the previous day, and in the mtn valleys.
 
$$$$9A6AC43C-C44A-47E6-8FFD-77F1367D0C9C.png
 
ILMRoss said:
Winter: "In 7 days it could be snowing or severe based on how much the trough digs"
Summer: "In 7 days if we're lucky we'll have 5h heights be under 588dm!"

get me out of this season asap
Click to expand...

Mid-long range pattern on GFS gives hope we might get an early end to Summer this year.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Mid-long range pattern on GFS gives hope we might get an early end to Summer this year.
Click to expand...
Like I said previously. The past few years we had a late start to summer with the heat not coming until Mid to Late June that ended up having the heat run well into August and into September (October 2019). This year we got back to normal where by Mid May summer was in full force. I am praying we can get back to by the end of August and beginning September we will be down towards the upper 70's and lower 80's. Hopefully by the end of September we will be towards the lower 70's.
 
Had a helluva storm hit around 11 last night. 1.17” and the most wind I’ve seen in awhile. Recorded a 28mph gust from the most sheltered direction on the tempest. Might have been some hail too judging by the sound but I was too tired to check.
 
79f27d37b691c23e2f9304f23c4b7523.gif
 
30 day running precip total will be back below 1 inch soon. Last can kicking rain was 11 days ago, last significant rain was 23 days ago. Grass is toast where I'm not watering. Starting to see wilt in shrubs and some leaf drop in trees. Next 5 show near 0 rain chances. The front next week will have to be timed well or it'll be another dud
 
SD said:
30 day running precip total will be back below 1 inch soon. Last can kicking rain was 11 days ago, last significant rain was 23 days ago. Grass is toast where I'm not watering. Starting to see wilt in shrubs and some leaf drop in trees. Next 5 show near 0 rain chances. The front next week will have to be timed well or it'll be another dud
Click to expand...
Death Valley gets higher temps and more rain than you bro ?


B49F5E51-4D3D-458F-A9AB-ED5362DE3B02.png
 
Lickwx said:
Death Valley gets higher temps and more rain than you bro ?


View attachment 120420
Click to expand...
I'd wager that everyone on this board minus about 3 or 4 people have more rain than me since 6/1. it doesn't even make me mad anymore it's just sad and really hard to believe. I still can't wrap my head around potentially going 2 summers without over 1.5 from a single storm (will have to check the numbers to verify) especially when places 5-15-25 miles away get 2 months worth of rain in an evening
 
SD said:
I'd wager that everyone on this board minus about 3 or 4 people have more rain than me since 6/1. it doesn't even make me mad anymore it's just sad and really hard to believe. I still can't wrap my head around potentially going 2 summers without over 1.5 from a single storm (will have to check the numbers to verify) especially when places 5-15-25 miles away get 2 months worth of rain in an evening
Click to expand...
My normal precip for August is like 3.5”! That seems very moist, but we shall see!
 
SD said:
I'd wager that everyone on this board minus about 3 or 4 people have more rain than me since 6/1. it doesn't even make me mad anymore it's just sad and really hard to believe. I still can't wrap my head around potentially going 2 summers without over 1.5 from a single storm (will have to check the numbers to verify) especially when places 5-15-25 miles away get 2 months worth of rain in an evening
Click to expand...
I believe I am one of those 3 or 4. I live in Chapin and I ended July with .9 inches and have had 2.5 inches since June 1 while the surrounding areas, (the Central Midlands) have had so much that people are complaining of the water. My last 1+ inch rainfall was May 11. People here have given up watering their lawns because we can't keep up. My lawn is at least 50% brown and there are even large trees now showing stress. I feel your pain Bud.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top