Brent
Member
At least temps are going the right way by the end /s can't wait til summer is over. Our average first freeze is barely 3 months away! 
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Pattern August '22
- Thread starter Detective WX
- Start date
Here's a little fantasy stuff; the CFS is showing a cool pattern from day 12 all the way to early September. I'll have to see it to believe it but that would be very welcome.
Day 12 dew points:
www.pivotalweather.com
Day 12 dew points:
Models: CFS — Pivotal Weather
View CFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
BHS1975
Member
Looks like FallsLake is getting hammered.
smast16
Member
Not my fantasy. Show dews in the 70's under heavy rain!Here's a little fantasy stuff; the CFS is showing a cool pattern from day 12 all the way to early September. I'll have to see it to believe it but that would be very welcome.
Day 12 dew points:
View attachment 120370
Models: CFS — Pivotal Weather
View CFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
Come to papa!
Here’s a radar so Rain_Cold can understand! ??
Pretty interesting discussion from from GSP 1215pm:
Today might end up a lot more active than previously thought. Model
guidance shows the Bermuda high/Atlantic subtropical ridge
re-asserting control of our weather pattern today with
some authority as the low level flow veers to S and SW this
afternoon. In general, this should bring more low level moisture
into the western Carolinas. The forecast is complicated by the
guidance being in two camps with regard to how much or how fast
the moisture returns. The GFS and HRRR mix out the dewpoints during
the afternoon such that sfc-based CAPE might only reach about 1500
J/kg, and altho fcst soundings show profiles that are uncapped,
this would be a limiting factor for coverage and intensity, perhaps
isolated at best. Meanwhile...the NAM/WRF/FV3 keep the sfc dewpt
much higher such that we would have very robust sfc-based CAPE
in excess of 4000 J/kg...or on the order of three times what the
GFS/HRRR show. Profiles are uncapped, naturally, and if that
much buoyancy develops, we can expect some vigorous updrafts
and several pulse-severe-type storms. Those solutions have much
greater coverage of storms late this afternoon. The guidance blend
really tones all this down, as does the Day 1 Convective Outlook,
so for the time being the fcst will be on the conservative side,
but this seems like kind of a 55/45 proposition. The more active
scenario is very much a possibility, so don`t be surprised late
this afternoon if it all blows up. Or not. If they develop,
storms may carry on into the late evening as they use up all
the instability. Temps will be above normal for highs and the
heat index will push 100 over the lower Piedmont, but think heat
advisory will be just out of reach. Afterward, expect the usual
convective debris and localized fog/stratus where rain fell in
the previous day, and in the mtn valleys.
Today might end up a lot more active than previously thought. Model
guidance shows the Bermuda high/Atlantic subtropical ridge
re-asserting control of our weather pattern today with
some authority as the low level flow veers to S and SW this
afternoon. In general, this should bring more low level moisture
into the western Carolinas. The forecast is complicated by the
guidance being in two camps with regard to how much or how fast
the moisture returns. The GFS and HRRR mix out the dewpoints during
the afternoon such that sfc-based CAPE might only reach about 1500
J/kg, and altho fcst soundings show profiles that are uncapped,
this would be a limiting factor for coverage and intensity, perhaps
isolated at best. Meanwhile...the NAM/WRF/FV3 keep the sfc dewpt
much higher such that we would have very robust sfc-based CAPE
in excess of 4000 J/kg...or on the order of three times what the
GFS/HRRR show. Profiles are uncapped, naturally, and if that
much buoyancy develops, we can expect some vigorous updrafts
and several pulse-severe-type storms. Those solutions have much
greater coverage of storms late this afternoon. The guidance blend
really tones all this down, as does the Day 1 Convective Outlook,
so for the time being the fcst will be on the conservative side,
but this seems like kind of a 55/45 proposition. The more active
scenario is very much a possibility, so don`t be surprised late
this afternoon if it all blows up. Or not. If they develop,
storms may carry on into the late evening as they use up all
the instability. Temps will be above normal for highs and the
heat index will push 100 over the lower Piedmont, but think heat
advisory will be just out of reach. Afterward, expect the usual
convective debris and localized fog/stratus where rain fell in
the previous day, and in the mtn valleys.
$$$$
Winter: "In 7 days it could be snowing or severe based on how much the trough digs"
Summer: "In 7 days if we're lucky we'll have 5h heights be under 588dm!"
get me out of this season asap
Summer: "In 7 days if we're lucky we'll have 5h heights be under 588dm!"
get me out of this season asap
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,290
- Reaction score
- 3,248
Mid-long range pattern on GFS gives hope we might get an early end to Summer this year.
iGRXY
Member
Like I said previously. The past few years we had a late start to summer with the heat not coming until Mid to Late June that ended up having the heat run well into August and into September (October 2019). This year we got back to normal where by Mid May summer was in full force. I am praying we can get back to by the end of August and beginning September we will be down towards the upper 70's and lower 80's. Hopefully by the end of September we will be towards the lower 70's.
99.9 lack of soil moisture putting in work today
Intra hour 101 at the house today
HugeSnowStick
Member
Do any ATL peeps know what is wrong with the radar, ATL?
JHS
Member
J1C1111
Member
That would be great. I'm hoping your on to something. Ready for fall.
NoSnowATL
Member
It’s down for repairs.
weatherfide
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,076
- Reaction score
- 4,498
It needs a new pedestal. The first one was made out of old pizza boxes and duct tape and coated in lard.
smast16
Member
Wen rain?
Had a helluva storm hit around 11 last night. 1.17” and the most wind I’ve seen in awhile. Recorded a 28mph gust from the most sheltered direction on the tempest. Might have been some hail too judging by the sound but I was too tired to check.