• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern August 2023 Thread

Official NWS reading in Montgomery showed a heat index of 118 today. Highest I remember.

I guess y'all got our heat although it hasn't left Southern Oklahoma and Texas yet. Endless 100s for Dallas still. It was really bad here a few times. We had 120s nearby awhile back which I had never seen before the humidity lessened
 
Very ominous looking for all of Central and North GA today.

Today is shaping up to be one of those days when hot conditions
come to a crashing end as severe storms roll through. An
unseasonably strong trough will track through the Ohio Valley
today. This will provide the lift and shear necessary to support
storm development and maintenance. Meanwhile, the heat and humidity
ahead of the approaching trough will result in SBCAPE values of
2500 to 4000 j/kg (per HREF guidance), ample fuel for strong
updrafts. Storms are ongoing in an unstable environment across
Tennessee and Kentucky already. As the morning progresses, CAM
guidance suggests this activity will gradually congeal into a more
cohesive line, before it becomes more cold pool driven and surges
through northern Georgia this afternoon and evening. Trends in
the HRRR guidance suggest the line of storms will arrive in the
Atlanta Metro between 4 PM and 7 PM. Due largely to the
unseasonably strong shear, there is an above average threat for
widespread damaging winds with the storms today. Wind gusts in the
50 to 70 mph range could occur with the strongest storms, and
peak gusts near 80 mph aren't't out of the realm of possibility. The
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to highlight this
potential wind threat. With gusts of this magnitude, tree and
power line damage can be anticipated in the region. Please be sure
to heed any warnings issued for your area. The potential for
other hazards (tornados, large hail or flooding) are lower.
 
Last edited:
SPC hasn't changed their outlook for today.
day1otlk_1200.gif


Random sounding at the time when storms are projected to roll through my backyard today. CAPE is a little high.

nam3km_2023080706_fh16_sounding_33.66N_83.59W.png
 
Very ominous looking for all of Central and North GA today.

Today is shaping up to be one of those days when hot conditions
come to a crashing end as severe storms roll through. An
unseasonably strong trough will track through the Ohio Valley
today. This will provide the lift and shear necessary to support
storm development and maintenance. Meanwhile, the heat and humidity
ahead of the approaching trough will result in SBCAPE values of
2500 to 4000 j/kg (per HREF guidance), ample fuel for strong
updrafts. Storms are ongoing in an unstable environment across
Tennessee and Kentucky already. As the morning progresses, CAM
guidance suggests this activity will gradually congeal into a more
cohesive line, before it becomes more cold pool driven and surges
through northern Georgia this afternoon and evening. Trends in
the HRRR guidance suggest the line of storms will arrive in the
Atlanta Metro between 4 PM and 7 PM. Due largely to the
unseasonably strong shear, there is an above average threat for
widespread damaging winds with the storms today. Wind gusts in the
50 to 70 mph range could occur with the strongest storms, and
peak gusts near 80 mph aren't't out of the realm of possibility. The
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to highlight this
potential wind threat. With gusts of this magnitude, tree and
power line damage can be anticipated in the region. Please be sure
to heed any warnings issued for your area. The potential for
other hazards (tornados, large hail or flooding) are lower.
It's looking like much of central Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina is in the danger zone as far as possible severe weather today. As I learned from personal experience last year where I live, straight line winds like the ones mentioned in this discussion can cause tornadic damage in some cases. I hope someone will start a thread to keep track of this possible severe weather outbreak.
 
On the other side of the front this is the closest thing we've had to a fall preview so far. Very impressive front for early August Screenshot_2023-08-07-10-29-47-29_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
This dewpoint high seems rather unbelievable.

1691448177622.png
 
Is it August? Back to back severe threats

F3FEVKFaIAA44_H
 
Spring pattern with summer SBCAPE gets ugly.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Just out of curiosity, do you think these severe threats in August are related to the El Niño? August just always seems to be so boring unless we’re tracking something in the tropics. It’s also typically one of the driest months in my area and I’ve already had 3.87 inches of rain
 
Just out of curiosity, do you think these severe threats in August are related to the El Niño? August just always seems to be so boring unless we’re tracking something in the tropics. It’s also typically one of the driest months in my area and I’ve already had 3.87 inches of rain
Do not know about the effect El Nino may be having on the strength of these short waves, but the warmer water in the gulf is certainly keeping dewpoints up and most likely making these systems stronger. Our fall severe weather season will probably be worse than usual because of this too.
 
This has really been an incredible heat wave across the far southern tier of the country. I can't remember Florida ever being under so many Excessive Heat Warnings for such an extended period. I guess perhaps dewpoints are higher than normal causing it to be so hot ?
 
This has really been an incredible heat wave across the far southern tier of the country. I can't remember Florida ever being under so many Excessive Heat Warnings for such an extended period. I guess perhaps dewpoints are higher than normal causing it to be so hot ?
Surface of the sun type of heat. Its been fun
 
Just out of curiosity, do you think these severe threats in August are related to the El Niño? August just always seems to be so boring unless we’re tracking something in the tropics. It’s also typically one of the driest months in my area and I’ve already had 3.87 inches of rain
STJ got excited
gfs_uv250_nhem_fh-72--18.gif
 
This has really been an incredible heat wave across the far southern tier of the country. I can't remember Florida ever being under so many Excessive Heat Warnings for such an extended period. I guess perhaps dewpoints are higher than normal causing it to be so hot ?

They also lowered the threshold to 110 in S Florida.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
A level 2 threat tomorrow. Here's what WRAL is saying about it.

All of our viewing area is now under a level 2 risk tomorrow. The storms may come in 2 rounds...

Round 1: 8 AM through noon
• A broken line of storms moves from west to east
• Mainly a damaging wind threat
• Depending how robust this line is, this could help limit thunderstorm fuel for round 2

Round 2: Afternoon
• Less storms but a greater severe threat
• Best chance is in the northern half of our viewing area between 1 and 4 or 5 PM
• These could be supercells and present a wind, hail, and isolated tornado threat

FB_IMG_1691619455906.jpg
FB_IMG_1691619458545.jpg
FB_IMG_1691619462867.jpg
 
This has really been an incredible heat wave across the far southern tier of the country. I can't remember Florida ever being under so many Excessive Heat Warnings for such an extended period. I guess perhaps dewpoints are higher than normal causing it to be so hot ?

It's been a weird summer for me... I mean I was in Alabama Memorial Day weekend wasnt remotely hot.. Was in Panama City Beach 2 weeks ago wasnt that bad and of course here in Tulsa other than a few days its been nothing we haven't seen before... Still running way behind last year even on days over 100. We've had rain the last 5 days too while most of Texas has yet to see a drop and of course Alabama is having severe weather like it's April almost. It's just weird to see the difference
 
Back
Top