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Arctic April

Also I know this is the LR GFS, but Still we’re getting to a time where average 500mb heights are rising to around 570-585dm, troughs arent so cold nomore, even with cold looking possible in the Medium range, average heights are increasing, only a month before we start heating up B7071220-8B82-4260-BC03-80FA4915974F.png5B9ADB2A-4D1C-4D9D-8796-4753EEC42F72.png
also the strat PV is going through its final warming, reason why I like spring for the transition A40BE1CE-5646-417E-828E-FFAC404FE39A.png
 
On the NAM, it’s forms a almost MCS like feature on Monday from energy embedded in NW flow, lee troughing helps out as well, solid little setup for severe storms given the dew-point depressions, and low freezing levels with present 0-6km shear, these little setups can produce decent storms 6A9106B8-0003-4E91-BFC0-80201A2DD01A.png14D0ABF9-2E2D-493C-BA5E-BFA107E8878A.png47E370E7-0823-4A5D-99F5-195E6763FDEE.pngB3AD4579-9DE6-4306-8798-9ECE4B93EC4C.png
 

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Myfrotho704_ said:
On the NAM, it’s forms a almost MCS like feature on Monday from energy embedded in NW flow, lee troughing helps out as well, solid little setup for severe storms given the dew-point depressions, and low freezing levels with present 0-6km shear, these little setups can produce decent storms
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Post theif. Seriously though I think we have a set up here where if storms can overcome the inhibiting factors there is a reasonably high ceiling for hail/wind on an isolated basis. Im watching for more moisture pooling on the warm side of the backdoor front to see if we can start getting up into the 60s. These quasi backdoor/true backdoor events have been hit or miss in the past but right off the top of my head I remember a couple of decent hailers in the last decade
 
SD said:
Post theif. Seriously though I think we have a set up here where if storms can overcome the inhibiting factors there is a reasonably high ceiling for hail/wind on an isolated basis. Im watching for more moisture pooling on the warm side of the backdoor front to see if we can start getting up into the 60s. These quasi backdoor/true backdoor events have been hit or miss in the past but right off the top of my head I remember a couple of decent hailers in the last decade
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NAM has slowly been on a uptick with dew points, we’ll see what happens, but there’s already gonna be decent 5-11km SR winds supportive of hail so that’s with SHIPS are around 0.5-1.5, if dewpoints stay the same as they look, some damaging winds could be a issue given the fact that dry subcloud layers cuase evaporative cooling and gusty winds
 
@SD that hail threat looks like it’s increasing a bit, soundings are more supportive of hail on both NAMs, soundings also supportive of isolated microbursts, weird the 3km keeps showing a cape maximum around my county which increases hail chances, but both NAMs had better SBcape across NC 14D5125C-86B7-4B29-9434-C4EF23885F31.pngA1339361-67FF-418C-B2F8-5145E92027D6.png7C13D60C-E28F-4F3A-A476-45B8092F1652.png49065DC4-3CD9-4392-9E19-5978474C14F1.png
 
Brent said:
High only 47 here if we don't get another degree(we are at the high right now) we'll break a record from 1920 for record lowest maximum

Where was this in the winter...

Also Wednesdays forecast high is 87
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It was 76 here, and SUNNY. A delightful Saturday.
 
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