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Arctic April

SETNwx said:
not all.. I'm rooting for another freeze or two, and a long stretch of cloudy, 50s, until May. I love dreary springs.
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You are an evil evil evil man ! Take that back! Move to Scotland if you want 50s year round :mad:! ( since I ain’t as well known of a poster im pullin your string but seriously go get checked out by a doctor that’s not a healthy preference at all).
 
BufordWX said:
Latest Day 1 SPC outlook has removed the slight risk region from North Carolina and has only a marginal risk for the north and eastern part of the state.View attachment 38542
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Not suprised given the amount of BL mixing/lackluster sfc dew points, still may be a few severe storms in west NC given the slightly better cape and stronger 0-6km shear like the hrrr shows
 
BufordWX said:
Latest Day 1 SPC outlook has removed the slight risk region from North Carolina and has only a marginal risk for the north and eastern part of the state.View attachment 38542
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That's a pretty significant reduction in the overall slight risk area. Not surprising seeing how anemic the 3k nam and Hrrr have looked the last 12 to 18 hours.
 
SPC putting out another marginal risk for Thursday from western and central North Carolina through upstate South Carolina and into North Georgia.7BBEA2AB-184E-4216-8F03-7FA54CA9CCBD.gif326740CC-3B34-4BCA-A76C-86A1C5BE67B1.jpeg
 
Those storms on Wednesday still look like they could be more severe, could actually be some supercells that fire up along/south of a cool pool from the north, nice setup for NW flow supercells with anvil fanning out SE and supercells moving more S, these storms could pose a large/very large hail risk if it plays out like this 54CB60C7-2212-40FE-8A5F-D75745AB9713.png47272EDA-952B-450B-9D76-C9AF5F93A012.png3185F775-4574-4CF5-BD53-4FBD5E859D44.png
 
We probably stand a much better chance of storms tomorrow as the weak frontal boundary over the OH valley and lower great lakes sags into Virginia.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I want to believe

View attachment 38558
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It is pretty amazing how the model consensus has grown colder and colder almost daily since last Wednesday. The country as a whole will be near the normals of mid-March once we get to mid-Apr! However, the SER is still persisting nearby to likely only allow near to a little BN after adjustment for cold bias in the deeper SE/FL with storms/rain impeding the cold air delivery. Actually, central to S FL likely will remain AN because even the cold biased models are AN there. The persistent warm Indonesian waters just won’t let the deep SE have sustained BN.
 
GaWx said:
It is pretty amazing how the model consensus has grown colder and colder almost daily since last Wednesday. The country as a whole will be near the normals of mid-March once we get to mid-Apr! However, the SER is still persisting nearby to likely only allow near to a little BN after adjustment for cold bias in the deeper SE/FL with storms/rain impeding the cold air delivery. Actually, central to S FL likely will remain AN because even the cold biased models are AN there. The persistent warm Indonesian waters just won’t let the deep SE have sustained BN.
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Well you have to figure, to get that kind of cool anomalies around here in April, you first usually have to fight your way through severe weather in some way, shape, or form.
 
BHS1975 said:
3k has been garb go with HRRR.


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It'll be a good test to see how their respective biases come into play. We know the HRRR is often too mixed in the BL and the 3k runs too hot on convection. The HRRR has a mlcape around 600 if we split the difference a ml cape of 1100 would be decent with any forcing
 
Cluster west of Hickory NC bares watching for main focal point of storms. Does it fizzle coming East or create new outflow boundaries? Short term models not doing the best with placement of this feature.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Cluster west of Hickory NC bares watching for main focal point of storms. Does it fizzle coming East or create new outflow boundaries? Short term models not doing the best with placement of this feature.
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It’s moving into better DCAPE and better SBcape but EL temps of -15 to -20 which suck for lightning and thunder
 
BufordWX said:
I’m getting quite interested in Thursday morning for some solid storms here. Nam has a decent line coming in to Georgia with some pretty high instability especially for the morning.View attachment 38596View attachment 38595
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I mention Georgia for this before, but how about North Mississippi! Loads of instability there late tomorrow night into early Thursday morning. 5D56CFD5-3333-4715-965E-D726CFA3FD4D.png
 
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