18z GFS is bringing the storm system in about 2 days earlier then the 12z Euro did. Does not look as strong as least.
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Arctic April
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Day 5 Euro forecasts falling to about 0.85-9 ACC due to the coronavirus shutting down air traffic basically means the medium range Euro is now about as good as it was 10-15 years ago.
Sadly, that's still just as good as today's GFS.
#ouch
Sadly, that's still just as good as today's GFS.
#ouch
It’s actually been trending in a direction more favorable for severe with that NS energy slowing down allowing a larger warm sector and less CAA
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the solutions overall are varying pretty wildly from model to model, but we're nearing that time of the year in the deep south where deep layer shear becomes the limiting factor for severe more often than not instead of CAPE. Hopefully, this takes most of our minds off the virus for a little while.
I was comparing it to the Euro but yeah definitely a solid warm sector this run. Low to mid 80s in the Carolinas and parts of Georgia out ahead.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), this is a 60 knot tropical storm in the SW Pacific. Just to put things into perspective how wrong they are on the initial intensity right now, that dark gray -80C ring coupled with a clear eye is a cat 5. This storm is probably already a cat 2 & it's undergoing rapid intensification
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Taking a deeper look, I'm not buying the op GFS, it's faster than every model (even vs its own ensemble) w/ the trough ejection at day 5.
One of these things is not like the other.
Some things never change, haha
To not bury the lead, the real story is that the 18z GFS accomplishes a triple phase and the storm under goes Bombogenesis.
Pretty close to being an historic late-season winter storm for the Midwest / Northeast.
Cadi40
Member
It’s been a while since we’ve had a large scale Tornado outbreak at least to my recalling.
Hopefully it stays that way.
pcbjr
Member
for a long, long, long, long time ...
Cadi40
Member
I may wishcast for a lot of things, but that’s not one of them.
tennessee storm
Member
April 2011 most likely
cd2play
Member
And I hope it's gonna be a long long time....
I was thinking March 2nd, 2012. That was a pretty big event. I got hit by a nasty storm that evening too. If I remember correctly I had about ping pong to golf ball sized hail from it.
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah I forgot bout that one
Brent
Member
39 and a thunderstorm here
Oh April
Oh April
Interesting trend with the gefs 