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Arctic April

BufordWX said:
It’s sad to state this but the GFS really is an embarrassing model. Always the last one to catch on. The supposed upgrade it got last year hasn't even made a difference.
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It's honestly pretty telling when the ECMWF is still just as good as the GFS on a normal day even without much upper air data.
 
SPC shifted the day 1 marginal risk further NE in NC.

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Fair environment for some straight line wind damage and large hail w/ lots of DCAPE and dry air aloft coupled w/ decent NWly flow, would imagine if any supercells develop, they'll be apt to split given the straight deep layer hodos. A lack of strong forcing for ascent, modest-moderate CAPE, and dry air in the ambient environment with RH values in the 40s-50s should keep storm coverage isolated-widely scattered (30-40% pops (ish))

Biggest difference(s) in the environment over NE NC vs the southwestern piedmont of NC are stronger deep layer shear, higher RHs, & more forcing for ascent in NE NC.

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1-2” rain would be nice but look at south-west VA getting sprinkles. I hope this doesn’t trend dry for NC.
 
Ah, this look appearing on the EPS, the pattern that’s dominated this year so far, watch that SER flex more as it gets closer and closer A7164615-4FCB-4D6F-9B9A-25AD56DDE061.png
 
Latest GEFS 6-15 (12Z0 still looks pleasantly cool/mild for much of the country! The question is not whether there is but how much cold bias there is in these? In other words, we know it won't be this cold throughout the country barring a miracle.

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Webberweather53 said:
I.e. if you're in the SE US, enjoy this nice weather while it lasts. Early tastes of summer are right around the corner.

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Fine with me. Time to get the maters out. Most of the time summer starts in April or early May around here anyway.
 
Lol what
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GaWx said:
Latest GEFS 6-15 (12Z0 still looks pleasantly cool/mild for much of the country! The question is not whether there is but how much cold bias there is in these? In other words, we know it won't be this cold throughout the country barring a miracle.

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With the virus, do we really want it cold ? I say crank up the heat and lets kill this thing.
 
Another big Euro run is incoming for next weekend. This run thus far is more supportive of severe w/ the 2nd trailing northern stream wave backing off a bit over southern Canada at day 4-5, allowing our cut-off ULL to remain in tact and slow down its progression thru the southern US.
 
BufordWX said:
Big Easter Sunday outbreak really looking like a possibility now.
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Yeah, imo it's probable if not likely already that someone east of the Rockies and south of the OH valley is going to see significant severe out of this in some way, shape, or form late next week into next weekend. We're definitely trending towards a big severe &/or tornado outbreak in general
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, imo it's probable if not likely already that someone east of the Rockies and south of the OH valley is going to see significant severe out of this in some way, shape, or form late next week into next weekend. We're definitely trending towards a big severe &/or tornado outbreak in general
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Lots of rain with this looks increasingly likely too. Isolated flooding could also be an issue especially in Alabama and Georgia where the euro is showing a swath of 4-6 inches. Which could be a problem since we didn’t dry up as much last month as the Carolinas. Still had over 6 inches here.
 
BufordWX said:
Lots of rain with this looks increasingly likely too. Isolated flooding could also be an issue especially in Alabama and Georgia where the euro is showing a swath of 4-6 inches. Which could be a problem since we didn’t dry up as much last month as the Carolinas. Still had over 6 inches here.
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Yea the overrunning nature of this event w/ moist, broad southwesterly flow off the Gulf and the potential for multiple embedded waves within the broader s/w envelope definitely argues for a significant flood threat coupled w/ the fact as you've mentioned, there's already some atmospheric "memory" for rain in these areas.
 
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