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Arctic April
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
May get a winter storm on the gfs with that look, smh 
Don’t worry we all know by tonight’s run that timeframe will have 70s and 80s.
Backdoor front somewhat elevated hailer potential Monday in NC
Dewpoint Dan
Member
It's in the 40s this afternoon in Dallas. Is something going to prevent that cold air from making it to the southeast ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Have to go back to the 1980s (1989 & 1983) to find any examples of cases where it's snowed this late in the season and accumulated in NC. Like ffs where tf was this in umm January or February.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Personally can't remember the last time I've seen a completely non-existent polar jet and overwhelming southern stream/subtropical jet so late in the season.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This pattern argues for a much, much lower than normal tornado risk overall in the CONUS, except perhaps near the Gulf coast &/or Florida, where there may be enough corresponding CAPE to coincide with the relative abundance of deep layer shear.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Cyclone Harold has decided to go completely ham in the SW Pacific.
Euro has a small pocket in south-central Florida at 100 degrees next Saturday. Wow.
Also has this nasty looking system. Hope we don’t have that.
FWIW This is also a sounding from GA. Yikes.
That’s a mean looking negatively tilted trough, combine that with a backdoor front to enhance SRH like the euro shows..... 
Dewpoint Dan
Member
31 and freezing drizzle in KC nd 71 in STL right now
Brent
Member
44 degrees here it was almost 90 last week
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Boy that 12z Euro run is basically a big tornado outbreak along the Gulf coast and into Dixie at day 8-9.
Name the last time you've seen +2C gulf SSTs coupled w/ a 130+ knot jet streak centered over the Gulf coast in mid April. If we get the right synoptic pattern next weekend, things might go boom for many on this board.
Name the last time you've seen +2C gulf SSTs coupled w/ a 130+ knot jet streak centered over the Gulf coast in mid April. If we get the right synoptic pattern next weekend, things might go boom for many on this board.
That pattern looks somewhat similar to April’s moderate risk last year for NC/SC? Been trying to find a H5 map for that setup
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The one huge caveat atm is the lack of upper air obs from aircraft. ECMWF day 5 z500 hemispheric skill scores have been dropping below 0.9... rarely, if ever see that.
