Nasty wind sounding there.
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Arctic April
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Nasty wind sounding there.
Yeah I notice with those types of soundings with that type of EML advection winds tend to be intense with thunderstorms
Prob won’t survive but could trigger outflow storm in the NC mtns.
RN/SN on the GFS lol, zoom in 
We picked up .14 from a little shower, got one lightning strike and one roll of thunder
No storms today, again ?
Dewpoint Dan
Member
This has been a crazy week in weather. The other day it was in the 60s in Orlando and 80s in Chattanooga. Today it's 65 in Birmingham and 86 in St. Louis
Please, just please let this verify 
Jessy89
Member
Lightning pictures, I’m getting super frustrated/impatient for not getting no lightning pics these past 3 days, and those aren’t really supercells more so multicellular although deep layer shear is supportive of supercells
That’s a mean looking MCS on the hrrr
If this comes in at the morning with this type of look, expect a layered/pancake looking shelf cloud given the elevated nature, elevated MCS can often deliver amazing shelf clouds
Jessy89
Member
This section is such a breath of fresh air. It’s nice to be able to talk about the weather! Weather is something we all get along on
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Short range models sucked today. For days they skipped Wilkes but actually had heavy rain and hail today. Maybe tomorrow will feature something too with ground moisture.
Looks like dewpoints won’t mix out much due to some EML air starting to spread in, boundary layer mixing has killed our storms the past few days around CLT, Storms tommorow will likely be stronger with isolated large hail/damaging winds, but they look pretty isolated
NAM still shows it, nasty looking MCS, almost looks like a derecho In a way with those bow echos embedded in it lol 
Jessy89
Member
I must say that line of storms on the nam Thursday morning is worrisome. The tornado soundings are unreal to be morning time. Someone with knowledge what exactly is fueling these storms to be so strong so early? No daytime heating to work with at all.
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Well what responsible for this pattern is this ridge that’s about to breakdown but is still there, is pumping out air from Mexico/the SW, which is are source for EML (elevated mixed layer) often times with elevated mixed layers you can have large amounts of elevated instability already in place when placed with large low level moisture, and get that loaded gun sounding look, with EMLs it’s hard to mix out the BL so CAPE is able to remain in place, EMLs are crucial to severe in the plains and even in the SE, also the fact that the GOM is above average when it comes to water temps helps with more moisture return
Note in this sounding that EML between 850mb and 700mb
this sounding near ATL there’s a nice EML from 850mb to 600mb
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BufordWX
Member
Probably one reason is that there is a ton of instability especially for the morning. Nam showing 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCape in parts of Alabama and Georgia which is a ton even in the day. Personally I think the 3km is being too aggressive with the SBCape. I would probably say their will be about 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCape maybe a little more maybe a little less in spot. As for tornados I would say it would limited to quick spin ups as per usual with MCSs. Main threat would be for strong winds and large hail. Nam looks like some rough storms in Alabama Thursday morning but I bet the Nam is too high with the cape.
That EML tho, gonna be some very large hail with that look and damaging winds
BufordWX
Member
I’m quite interested to see what the SPC will go with for the day 1 outlook tomorrow.
Here’s some good examples of a Elevated mixed Layer 
more pollen to move too I wonder if leaves and pollen carry heavier returns on radar other than just the rain droplets
Brent
Member
40s on Saturday to 90s tomorrow here lol
Looking like we may go right back to cold too for April by the weekend
BufordWX
Member
Long range gfs want to know if anyone needs cape. Lol
Brent
Member
I remember last week when I thought the GFS was smoking something lmao forget snow(Dallas has never measured snow in April) our latest freeze ever is on Monday!
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one more warm day today, then it's time to turn the heater on for a while. Looks BN through mid-month.
BufordWX
Member
SPC day 1 outlook has a large enhanced risk region for the Tennessee valley. Slight risk going into central Alabama and Georgia. Can’t rule out an isolated tornado either.
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BufordWX
Member
6z Hrrr showing an active night in Tennessee tonight with loads of instability in place and a strong line of storms moving through. Definitely going to see some strong winds and large hail up there should this verify.
That’s a legit MCS 
These are nice soundings for isolated but intense microbursts here later w/ large hail, large dry air entrainment, large dcape, 0-6km bulk shear around 50-60kts, WBZ at 700mb, straight hodo aswell so we may see some splitters
This afternoon could be sneaky active across southern and western parts of ATL Metro.
What mountain is this again ? Seems to fire off some storms layer and obviously there’s significant differential heating on it, almost every hrrr run storms have fired off that mountain and became strong with 60 dbz cores
Sounding on it
Sounding on it
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ahh yes that would be Caesars Head
Geez HRRR spits out over 60+ dbz cores today with storms, not suprised given theres way more cape aloft for hail growth 
JHS
Member
Now a slight risk for parts of NC for today and a bigger enhanced risk west of the mountains for tonight. An upgrade to moderate possible for parts of Tenn and KY later.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I had two rumbles of thunder yesterday, and that was it as far as storms here. WRAL keeps hyping the storm chances here for today and tomorrow. We'll see.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Ehh I’m not buying all of this. You can see the NAM and other guidance today is likely busting DRY for most minus a few folks in the extreme eastern NC. Also the line likely dries up East of the mtns on the NAM tomorrow. I will say Sunday trended wetter finally like Webber showed on the euro but until it happens who knows still likely to be somewhat dry East.