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Arctic April

Sunday Monday could be a flooding issue 3-5 inches rain gfs and Canadian models in some areas


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SD said:
RAH disco seems bullish on today
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1115 AM Wednesday...

Minimal changes to the forecast. The outflow boundary from the late-
night/early-morning MCS over S OH/WV/VA has propagated southward
into NC, reaching the W Piedmont, N Sandhills, and the central
Coastal Plain. We`re still eyeing this boundary as a likely focus
for convection this afternoon, with strong heating and subsequent
destabilization eventually busting through a prominent cap noted on
the 12z GSO sounding at around 800 mb. Once that occurs, strong
updrafts are likely with fairly steep lapse rates through the EML
depth, particularly 750-500 mb. MLCAPE is expected to reach 1000-
1500 J/kg within 30-40 kt of deep layer shear this afternoon,
supportive of vigorous rotating updrafts with the potential for
splitting cells. Large hail appears to be the primary threat, with
damaging wind gusts a close second. -GIH
 
Brick Tamland said:
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1115 AM Wednesday...

Minimal changes to the forecast. The outflow boundary from the late-
night/early-morning MCS over S OH/WV/VA has propagated southward
into NC, reaching the W Piedmont, N Sandhills, and the central
Coastal Plain. We`re still eyeing this boundary as a likely focus
for convection this afternoon, with strong heating and subsequent
destabilization eventually busting through a prominent cap noted on
the 12z GSO sounding at around 800 mb. Once that occurs, strong
updrafts are likely with fairly steep lapse rates through the EML
depth, particularly 750-500 mb. MLCAPE is expected to reach 1000-
1500 J/kg within 30-40 kt of deep layer shear this afternoon,
supportive of vigorous rotating updrafts with the potential for
splitting cells. Large hail appears to be the primary threat, with
damaging wind gusts a close second. -GIH
Click to expand...

Yep didn't expect them to be that bullish. Big hail potential day to be honest. Looking at the visible satellite the outflow has gone to our south but tails back from asheboro toward boone. If that stays in there today storms would likely form on that arc then move ESE into our area
 
gfs_asnow_seus_29.png
 
Good News!
Weather.us now has ERA5 Reanalysis data going back to 1979.
Here is an example from the blizzard of 93. I bet this is going to be extremely useful in the storms to come.
weather.us

ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis) | USA

Historical weather maps, USA - Temperature (°F) | ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis)
weather.us weather.us
us_reanalyse-en-087-0_modera5_199303130600_498_215.pngus_reanalyse-en-087-0_modera5_199303130600_5_310.pngus_reanalyse-en-087-0_modera5_199303130600_5_149.pngus_reanalyse-en-087-0_modera5_199303130600_5_155.png
 

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Ollie Williams said:
I don't understand why snow is a bad thing now. It's not like we have to go somewhere.
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Lol been beyond ready for spring now, winter should have tried a little harder when it actually mattered in January. This is sort of like a basketball team being down 60 points with 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter and your star player finally starts draining 3s. It's annoying lol
 
I wouldn’t care if it snowed 6 inches from Atlanta to most the Carolinas in may. It give relief from heat


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Lickwx said:
Its the growing season now farmer got their soil tilled and crops that are harvested in early summer are growing..... it would not be good for anybody.
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Taking what you’re saying a step further, neither would severe wx be good for anyone at any time (actually the effects are potentially way worse obviously) but that doesn’t stop some folks for rooting for it. So, as far as this forum is concerned, what you’re saying is pretty much irrelevant.
 
Lickwx said:
Its the growing season now farmer got their soil tilled and crops that are harvested in early summer are growing..... it would not be good for anybody.
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Snow would be fine if it's above freezing. A freeze at this point in our region is an ag nightmare
 
Tornado warnings dropping out of Kentucky. I agree with no watch for NC it should dry up once in southern Virginia.
 
Is it too arduous to get a decent thunderstorm right now? I want some big boomers, wind, very heavy rain, and maybe some hail. Just your good ole fashioned southern spring storm. Boy, would that help my anxiety and stress right now!
 
SD said:
Snow would be fine if it's above freezing. A freeze at this point in our region is an ag nightmare
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This is the first year I've had all my apples bloom in full and all together. We are set for two frosts in the next week but hopefully it doesn't get too cold.
 
SD said:
FCX radar is lighting up. Should get a line of storms into central nc by 7-9pm
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Yeah the hrrr has come back to life, lol, shows more storms again, been noticing to my north what looks almost like a boundary where I’ve seen towering cumulus continue to fail but they won’t stop building, and its this general area to my north 1CAF0B1A-B5D6-489E-9F45-BB3275B97DD2.png
 
This storm outside of Roanoke, VA looks nasty. Definitely could see wind gusts of up to 70+ mph downstream in N.C. once the trailing stratiform precipitation is able to establish a strong rear inflow jet, this usually just takes time.


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