Arctic April

[Webberweather53]

One of these things is not like the other(s).

 

[BufordWX]

One of these things is not like the other(s).

View attachment 38449

It’s sad to state this but the GFS really is an embarrassing model. Always the last one to catch on. The supposed upgrade it got last year hasn't even made a difference.

 

[Webberweather53]

It’s sad to state this but the GFS really is an embarrassing model. Always the last one to catch on. The supposed upgrade it got last year hasn't even made a difference.

It's honestly pretty telling when the ECMWF is still just as good as the GFS on a normal day even without much upper air data.

 

[Webberweather53]

This EPS run looks more impressive than any suite thus far, the SE ridge provides more resistance at day 5-6

 

[Webberweather53]

Marginal risk of severe the next 3 days in a row for NC. It's that time of the year again

 

[Downeastnc]

Nam 3k and HRRR have decent coverage with the storms today....

 

[Webberweather53]

6z GFS finally got a clue and is picking up on the storm next week. A very significant bout of severe weather in some way shape or form somewhere over the SE US appears probable, if not, likely at this point next weekend

 

[Webberweather53]

Last 4 EPS runs valid next Sunday morning. A trend we've become all too familiar with even in the winter, the SE US ridge flexing its muscles as verification approaches. This also means the chances of severe weather next weekend ⬆

 

[Webberweather53]

SPC shifted the day 1 marginal risk further NE in NC.




Fair environment for some straight line wind damage and large hail w/ lots of DCAPE and dry air aloft coupled w/ decent NWly flow, would imagine if any supercells develop, they'll be apt to split given the straight deep layer hodos. A lack of strong forcing for ascent, modest-moderate CAPE, and dry air in the ambient environment with RH values in the 40s-50s should keep storm coverage isolated-widely scattered (30-40% pops (ish))

Biggest difference(s) in the environment over NE NC vs the southwestern piedmont of NC are stronger deep layer shear, higher RHs, & more forcing for ascent in NE NC.

 

[Webberweather53]

I.e. if you're in the SE US, enjoy this nice weather while it lasts. Early tastes of summer are right around the corner.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

1-2” rain would be nice but look at south-west VA getting sprinkles. I hope this doesn’t trend dry for NC.

 

[smast16]

1-2” rain would be nice but look at south-west VA getting sprinkles. I hope this doesn’t trend dry for NC.

No doubt, I'm hoping that doesn't happen. Only 1.8" since February, so I could really use that rain.

 

[SD]

Nams look active for some part of NC for the next 3 days.

Currently during at 73/61, too bad we are going to mix these 60 degree dews out a bit this afternoon

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hrrr has widespread thunderstorms tomorrow, and even shows a little bit of rotation with them tomorrow, might be more instances of large hail/downbursts

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@Webberweather53 didn’t this happen last May ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ah, this look appearing on the EPS, the pattern that’s dominated this year so far, watch that SER flex more as it gets closer and closer

 

[GaWx]

Latest GEFS 6-15 (12Z0 still looks pleasantly cool/mild for much of the country! The question is not whether there is but how much cold bias there is in these? In other words, we know it won't be this cold throughout the country barring a miracle.

 

[EmersonGA]

I.e. if you're in the SE US, enjoy this nice weather while it lasts. Early tastes of summer are right around the corner.

Fine with me. Time to get the maters out. Most of the time summer starts in April or early May around here anyway.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Lol what

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol what

I’ll go with E20 please