Arctic April

[Webberweather53]

Impressive at this range.





The ceiling could go considerably higher than even what the Euro is leading on depending on the interaction w/ this trailing northern stream wave

 

[BHS1975]

Impressive at this range.

View attachment 38416



The ceiling could go considerably higher than even what the Euro is leading on depending on the interaction w/ this trailing northern stream wave

View attachment 38417

Oooofff that looks bad for North Cacalacky.


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Nice pop up shower just came through here. Heavy soaking rain.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

#Jackpot..probably a quick 1/10-2/10 of an inch

 

[superjames1992]

Interesting.

Possible?

View attachment 38409

Definitely possible. Mid-April Freezes aren't that terribly uncommon, especially up in the northern parts of the Southeast. Heck, Raleigh had a minor snowstorm on April 19, 1983, for that matter.

I think RDU's last freeze was March 8th (or about that time). I have to wonder if that's one of the earliest last freezes on record? That seems pretty early to me. There's always a chance we get another still, but we're running out of time, especially as the near-term pattern doesn't look conducive. I believe Raleigh's latest freeze on record is May 10th.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hrrr has some nice multicellular clusters tomorrow, with some 60+ dbzs in ENC, likely from better CAPE/DPs, might be some marginally severe hail around there tomorrow w/ some isolated downbursts, as you head west into WNC, boundary layers will be well mixed with large inverted Vs, which may allow a more gusty wind threat, once thing to watch is that sea breeze boundary which may enhance the strength of storms around ENC

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here’s a sounding from ENC from the hrrr, better CAPE with decent 0-6km bulk shear
one from near CLT, boundary layer is effectively mixed, dewpoint depressions around 30+, this sounding reminds me of one out in the SW us, lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Can see the gusty winds with those storms tommorow

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Little marginal today (finally something to relieve the extreme boredom)

 

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS is cold throughout the country and pretty cold even into most of the SE for days 6-15., The question is how much is it overdone due to persistent cold bias. Even if it is off a good bit, it certainly doesn't look like a warm pattern like we had in March and dewpoints should be nice and low most days.

 

[BufordWX]

Little marginal today (finally something to relieve the extreme boredom) View attachment 38434View attachment 38435

Another one for Tuesday as well.

 

[Webberweather53]

Here comes another big Euro run for next week

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Another one for Tuesday as well.View attachment 38438View attachment 38439

Probably gonna be a D3 marginal given the EML advection really making it to our areas

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s ejecting even slower than the 12z run
12z
00z

This run may be even more impressive

 

[Webberweather53]

It’s ejecting even slower than the 12z run
12z
View attachment 3844000z
View attachment 38441
This run may be even more impressive

The mid-level heights over the SE US are also higher this run which implies a stronger, more extensive warm sector

 

[BufordWX]

Should also the note that both the 00z Canadian and ICON have the system moving through Sunday into Monday.

 

[Webberweather53]

The big limiting factor at this stage is starting to look like CAPE if anything given the breadth and amount of pre frontal convection.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah the CMC at H5 looked more favorable for severe, so did the ICON, GFS is starting to be on its own island
also CMC was headed for round 2

 

[Webberweather53]

Pretty impressive soundings this run in the warm sector over SC & GA.

 

[BufordWX]

Beyond severe weather how about these 24 hour rainfall totals. Goodness.