NCSNOW
Member
loving this weather. Upper 50s near 60 is perfect as it gets with Blue skies low DP.
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Arctic April
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
May get a winter storm on the gfs with that look, smh 
BufordWX
Member
Don’t worry we all know by tonight’s run that timeframe will have 70s and 80s.
Backdoor front somewhat elevated hailer potential Monday in NC
Dewpoint Dan
Member
It's in the 40s this afternoon in Dallas. Is something going to prevent that cold air from making it to the southeast ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Have to go back to the 1980s (1989 & 1983) to find any examples of cases where it's snowed this late in the season and accumulated in NC. Like ffs where tf was this in umm January or February.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Personally can't remember the last time I've seen a completely non-existent polar jet and overwhelming southern stream/subtropical jet so late in the season.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This pattern argues for a much, much lower than normal tornado risk overall in the CONUS, except perhaps near the Gulf coast &/or Florida, where there may be enough corresponding CAPE to coincide with the relative abundance of deep layer shear.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Cyclone Harold has decided to go completely ham in the SW Pacific.
BufordWX
Member
Euro has a small pocket in south-central Florida at 100 degrees next Saturday. Wow.
BufordWX
Member
Also has this nasty looking system. Hope we don’t have that.
FWIW This is also a sounding from GA. Yikes.
That’s a mean looking negatively tilted trough, combine that with a backdoor front to enhance SRH like the euro shows..... 
Dewpoint Dan
Member
31 and freezing drizzle in KC nd 71 in STL right now
Brent
Member
44 degrees here it was almost 90 last week
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Boy that 12z Euro run is basically a big tornado outbreak along the Gulf coast and into Dixie at day 8-9.
Name the last time you've seen +2C gulf SSTs coupled w/ a 130+ knot jet streak centered over the Gulf coast in mid April. If we get the right synoptic pattern next weekend, things might go boom for many on this board.
Name the last time you've seen +2C gulf SSTs coupled w/ a 130+ knot jet streak centered over the Gulf coast in mid April. If we get the right synoptic pattern next weekend, things might go boom for many on this board.
That pattern looks somewhat similar to April’s moderate risk last year for NC/SC? Been trying to find a H5 map for that setup
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The one huge caveat atm is the lack of upper air obs from aircraft. ECMWF day 5 z500 hemispheric skill scores have been dropping below 0.9... rarely, if ever see that.
BufordWX
Member
18z GFS is bringing the storm system in about 2 days earlier then the 12z Euro did. Does not look as strong as least.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Day 5 Euro forecasts falling to about 0.85-9 ACC due to the coronavirus shutting down air traffic basically means the medium range Euro is now about as good as it was 10-15 years ago.
Sadly, that's still just as good as today's GFS.
#ouch
Sadly, that's still just as good as today's GFS.
#ouch
It’s actually been trending in a direction more favorable for severe with that NS energy slowing down allowing a larger warm sector and less CAA
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the solutions overall are varying pretty wildly from model to model, but we're nearing that time of the year in the deep south where deep layer shear becomes the limiting factor for severe more often than not instead of CAPE. Hopefully, this takes most of our minds off the virus for a little while.
BufordWX
Member
I was comparing it to the Euro but yeah definitely a solid warm sector this run. Low to mid 80s in the Carolinas and parts of Georgia out ahead.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), this is a 60 knot tropical storm in the SW Pacific. Just to put things into perspective how wrong they are on the initial intensity right now, that dark gray -80C ring coupled with a clear eye is a cat 5. This storm is probably already a cat 2 & it's undergoing rapid intensification
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Taking a deeper look, I'm not buying the op GFS, it's faster than every model (even vs its own ensemble) w/ the trough ejection at day 5.
One of these things is not like the other.
Some things never change, haha
To not bury the lead, the real story is that the 18z GFS accomplishes a triple phase and the storm under goes Bombogenesis.
Pretty close to being an historic late-season winter storm for the Midwest / Northeast.
Cadi40
Member
It’s been a while since we’ve had a large scale Tornado outbreak at least to my recalling.
BufordWX
Member
Hopefully it stays that way.
pcbjr
Member
for a long, long, long, long time ...
Cadi40
Member
I may wishcast for a lot of things, but that’s not one of them.
tennessee storm
Member
April 2011 most likely
cd2play
Member
And I hope it's gonna be a long long time....
BufordWX
Member
I was thinking March 2nd, 2012. That was a pretty big event. I got hit by a nasty storm that evening too. If I remember correctly I had about ping pong to golf ball sized hail from it.
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah I forgot bout that one
Brent
Member
39 and a thunderstorm here
Oh April
Oh April
Interesting trend with the gefs 