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Arctic April

SouthATLwx

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BufordWX

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That’s also a very good pattern for severe
I don’t usually make predictions like this and I hope I’m wrong but I just got this sinking feeling in me that there’s going to be a week in April featuring a series of rough severe weather events. Given everything else going on that is absolutely the last thing needed, but I can’t shake this uneasy feeling. Hope I’m wrong.
 

Myfrotho704_

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I don’t usually make predictions like this and I hope I’m wrong but I just got this sinking feeling in me that there’s going to be a week in April featuring a series of rough severe weather events. Given everything else going on that is absolutely the last thing needed, but I can’t shake this uneasy feeling. Hope I’m wrong.
April has been dominated by blocking these past few years, this year looks different... that pattern the ensembles/globals show is one that can produce legit multi day severe weather events, especially since it looks like the SER won’t be beaten back that much, this April has a different look
 

Myfrotho704_

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It’s also worth noting that even if the trough doesn’t eject much from the west, we’ve seen these weird setups with strong flow out the west on the more northern side of the ridge aloft (500mb) with little Pieces of energy acting to back low level winds this year, for example the Nashville tornado was like that
 

Webberweather53

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It’s also worth noting that even if the trough doesn’t eject much from the west, we’ve seen these weird setups with strong flow out the west on the more northern side of the ridge aloft (500mb) with little Pieces of energy acting to back low level winds this year, for example the Nashville tornado was like that
Yeah, you really don't need a monster s/w to eject out of the SW US or southern plains to get a decent bout of severe weather, oftentimes, those setups are characterized by considerably too much forcing/shear and limits the overall severity of convection
 

Myfrotho704_

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The ensembles/globals have really warmed things up from the upper 60s/lower 70s they were showing earlier this week/this past weekend , upper 70s to low to mid 80s are starting to look possible with this next warmup, and it also looks like it’s gonna be long lasting
CLT GEFS/EPS/ECMWF 6E8816DE-A6F4-45FF-B08F-AD2984CAD085.png 81D7DF24-4C6E-4AFD-875A-174899599A89.png 88E5725B-1F17-47B4-933A-879507B0B6C6.png
ATL ECMWF
B131BAF7-F2CE-478D-B531-73625FEBD085.png Columbia SC (ECMWF) 0CA80D9D-4B7D-4110-84D5-7B558663FA6A.png
 

EmersonGA

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37 this morning but too much of a breeze to frost. If we can stay clear tonight we should get close to a freeze.
 
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