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Arctic April

The ensembles/globals have really warmed things up from the upper 60s/lower 70s they were showing earlier this week/this past weekend , upper 70s to low to mid 80s are starting to look possible with this next warmup, and it also looks like it’s gonna be long lasting
CLT GEFS/EPS/ECMWF 6E8816DE-A6F4-45FF-B08F-AD2984CAD085.png81D7DF24-4C6E-4AFD-875A-174899599A89.png88E5725B-1F17-47B4-933A-879507B0B6C6.png
ATL ECMWF
B131BAF7-F2CE-478D-B531-73625FEBD085.pngColumbia SC (ECMWF) 0CA80D9D-4B7D-4110-84D5-7B558663FA6A.png
 
I was gettin' real used to these 80s this week down here. Nothing like flipflops and go.
 
37 this morning but too much of a breeze to frost. If we can stay clear tonight we should get close to a freeze.
 
Forecast low of 42 tonight, temp already down to 45 and winds have gone calm....this gon get interesting
 
37 was as low as it got last night but on the way into work this morning I did some frost on some roof tops.... really hope last one of the year.
 
35 at my house in Summerfield, just NW of GSO. Caught me a little by surprise. It could get this low again tonight.
 
GFS/CMC shows ample chances for light frosts through Mid April. Freezes limited to the mtns for now.
 
Well it looks like a great spring pattern here in Charlotte. A few days with cooler weather then warmer weather back and forth. What does the pattern look like for the rest of April?
 
Well it looks like a great spring pattern here in Charlotte. A few days with cooler weather then warmer weather back and forth. What does the pattern look like for the rest of April?
Stormy with post frost.
 
Assuming that is isn't largely due to cold bias, the 12Z EPS says look out for a chilly mid April in much of the country with cooler and drier than normal even down into the SE US. In other words, the last frosts of the season may not have been seen in especially some northern SE areas assuming cold bias isn't skewing things much.
 
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Major NWP model skill scores have been set back big time due to the lack of upper air obs from aircraft during the coronavirus. Expect much wilder than normal swings in the models going forward.

Also, keep in mind that we're almost at that time of the year where even a really big negative height anomaly on the ensembles could be a harbinger of severe weather.





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