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Arctic April

We probably stand a much better chance of storms tomorrow as the weak frontal boundary over the OH valley and lower great lakes sags into Virginia.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I want to believe

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It is pretty amazing how the model consensus has grown colder and colder almost daily since last Wednesday. The country as a whole will be near the normals of mid-March once we get to mid-Apr! However, the SER is still persisting nearby to likely only allow near to a little BN after adjustment for cold bias in the deeper SE/FL with storms/rain impeding the cold air delivery. Actually, central to S FL likely will remain AN because even the cold biased models are AN there. The persistent warm Indonesian waters just won’t let the deep SE have sustained BN.
 
GaWx said:
It is pretty amazing how the model consensus has grown colder and colder almost daily since last Wednesday. The country as a whole will be near the normals of mid-March once we get to mid-Apr! However, the SER is still persisting nearby to likely only allow near to a little BN after adjustment for cold bias in the deeper SE/FL with storms/rain impeding the cold air delivery. Actually, central to S FL likely will remain AN because even the cold biased models are AN there. The persistent warm Indonesian waters just won’t let the deep SE have sustained BN.
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Well you have to figure, to get that kind of cool anomalies around here in April, you first usually have to fight your way through severe weather in some way, shape, or form.
 
BHS1975 said:
3k has been garb go with HRRR.


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It'll be a good test to see how their respective biases come into play. We know the HRRR is often too mixed in the BL and the 3k runs too hot on convection. The HRRR has a mlcape around 600 if we split the difference a ml cape of 1100 would be decent with any forcing
 
Cluster west of Hickory NC bares watching for main focal point of storms. Does it fizzle coming East or create new outflow boundaries? Short term models not doing the best with placement of this feature.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Cluster west of Hickory NC bares watching for main focal point of storms. Does it fizzle coming East or create new outflow boundaries? Short term models not doing the best with placement of this feature.
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It’s moving into better DCAPE and better SBcape but EL temps of -15 to -20 which suck for lightning and thunder
 
BufordWX said:
I’m getting quite interested in Thursday morning for some solid storms here. Nam has a decent line coming in to Georgia with some pretty high instability especially for the morning.View attachment 38596View attachment 38595
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I mention Georgia for this before, but how about North Mississippi! Loads of instability there late tomorrow night into early Thursday morning. 5D56CFD5-3333-4715-965E-D726CFA3FD4D.png
 
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