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Arctic April

BufordWX said:
Probably one reason is that there is a ton of instability especially for the morning. Nam showing 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCape in parts of Alabama and Georgia which is a ton even in the day. Personally I think the 3km is being too aggressive with the SBCape. I would probably say their will be about 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCape maybe a little more maybe a little less in spot. As for tornados I would say it would limited to quick spin ups as per usual with MCSs. Main threat would be for strong winds and large hail. Nam looks like some rough storms in Alabama Thursday morning but I bet the Nam is too high with the cape.View attachment 38619
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That EML tho, gonna be some very large hail with that look and damaging winds
 
more pollen to move too I wonder if leaves and pollen carry heavier returns on radar other than just the rain droplets
 
one more warm day today, then it's time to turn the heater on for a while. Looks BN through mid-month.
 
BufordWX said:
SPC day 1 outlook has a large enhanced risk region for the Tennessee valley. Slight risk going into central Alabama and Georgia. Can’t rule out an isolated tornado either.View attachment 38631
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6z Hrrr showing an active night in Tennessee tonight with loads of instability in place and a strong line of storms moving through. Definitely going to see some strong winds and large hail up there should this verify.23B5B42E-11DE-4308-A27A-8F570A63659F.png
 
These are nice soundings for isolated but intense microbursts here later w/ large hail, large dry air entrainment, large dcape, 0-6km bulk shear around 50-60kts, WBZ at 700mb, straight hodo aswell so we may see some splitters
C12E8348-51D1-4C76-91E0-7EF27DF074A6.png
 
What mountain is this again ? Seems to fire off some storms layer and obviously there’s significant differential heating on it, almost every hrrr run storms have fired off that mountain and became strong with 60 dbz cores
Sounding on it 67DB771B-7E29-44F7-B798-14D3F68F466E.pngE0CB20A4-8F06-442C-B6C1-A001CF749A82.png
 
Now a slight risk for parts of NC for today and a bigger enhanced risk west of the mountains for tonight. An upgrade to moderate possible for parts of Tenn and KY later.
 
I had two rumbles of thunder yesterday, and that was it as far as storms here. WRAL keeps hyping the storm chances here for today and tomorrow. We'll see.
 
Ehh I’m not buying all of this. You can see the NAM and other guidance today is likely busting DRY for most minus a few folks in the extreme eastern NC. Also the line likely dries up East of the mtns on the NAM tomorrow. I will say Sunday trended wetter finally like Webber showed on the euro but until it happens who knows still likely to be somewhat dry East.
 
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