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Wintry April Fools? (1-2) Surprise Storm

Webberweather53 said:
Precipitation type products may be a bit deceiving in this case w/o seeing soundings etc. but the total snowfall shows you're in the thick of it. P-type algorithms & most probable p-type output can be pretty wonky in a very marginal setup like this esp when p-type is even more dependent on p-rate that's extremely hard to predict beyond the e-folding time of mesoscale features (several hours or so)

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Well dang, I just actually looked at a sounding for my area when precip map showed rain, and it was a snow sounding, thanks for letting me know, always a good thing to look at soundings in these types of setups
 
Eric said:
According to a history book on Mecklenburg County, Charlotte received five inches of snow from the April 15, 1849 snowstorm. The S.C. Department of Natural Resources says 6 inches of snow was measured in that storm in Columbia. David Ludlum in his book on Early American Winters says four inches of snow fell in Fayetteville, NC and around six inches of snow was measured near Wilmington, NC. The Mecklenburg County history book account also mentions that it was not until mid-summer 1849 that trees made a "respectable shade." Sounds similar to what happened to the trees after the April 2007 freeze.
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That same storm also covered the ground in Charleston too. Extremely rare but history can repeat.
 
I’m also pretty confident there will be fluctuations with hires models until we get a defined low pressure to form on the coast and then the question is how strong does it get and how expansive it can get it’s precip shield
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I’m also pretty confident there will be fluctuations with hires models until we get a defined low pressure to form on the coast and then the question is how strong does it get and how expansive it can get it’s precip shield
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Precip shield usually expands up until zero hour
 
TWC says no snow for you! Hugging the GFS!4026A2A5-D7A3-41D9-A3C7-CF4E1B20D360.png
 
The 18Z GFS is about 50-100 miles SE of the 12Z GFS path when off the Carolinas and is the most SE there of the last 4 GFS runs. Cyclogenesis is in about the same spot off S FL but the heading from there averages slightly more easterly thus keeping it a little further SE. This could easily just be a burp.
 
GaWx said:
The 18Z GFS is about 50-100 miles SE of the 12Z GFS path when off the Carolinas and is the most SE there of the last 4 GFS runs. Cyclogenesis is in about the same spot off S FL but the heading from there averages slightly more easterly thus keeping it a little further SE. This could easily just be a burp.
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GFS is on an island in terms of large-scale track & evolution vs other NWP atm, a southeasterly bias that's almost always present in coastal cyclones (even just this far out) is definitely not helping its legitimacy atm.
 
GaWx said:
The 18Z GFS is about 50-100 miles SE of the 12Z GFS path when off the Carolinas and is the most SE there of the last 4 GFS runs. Cyclogenesis is in about the same spot off S FL but the heading from there averages slightly more easterly thus keeping it a little further SE. This could easily just be a burp.
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60º on April Fool's in Hogtown ... Larry, I'll take it; and BTW, it will be a tad bit south to SE IMHO ... which might help some folks outside the mtns ...
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'd take any of these from the 12z EPS and cash out for the season at least modestly satisfied.

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I’m starting to wonder whether I needa drive to my parents house in concord/kannapolis and if this might be a event where it causes delays or even closes schools down, lol, but yet again with me being in a better climo area then those areas I mentioned, hmm
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m starting to wonder whether I needa drive to my parents house in concord/kannapolis and if this might be a event where it causes delays or even closes schools down, lol, but yet again with me being in a better climo area then those areas I mentioned, hmm
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Grace comes to those who wait ... sometimes ... :rolleyes:
 
Why does the area of snow not translate north or east at all? Is it solely due to time of day?
 
GSP beginning to believe...

every now and then, something comes along
in the model guidance to make you go...wow. Today, that would
be the 12Z NAM, which continues to move a surface low on a track
much closer to the coast. The NAM solution would bring the deeper
moisture farther west where the slower mid/upper forcing can act
upon it...while cold air remains in place to the NW of the low
track...right across the heart of the GSP fcst area along the I-85
corridor. For those readers that have access to forecast soundings,
the wow factor can be seen in the NAM fcst soundings at GSP and CLT,
which show a deep isothermal layer resulting in a period of heavy
wet snow on Tuesday morning as the low passes. As a result, the
NAM cranks out 3-4 inches of wet snow at GSP
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
GSP beginning to believe...

every now and then, something comes along
in the model guidance to make you go...wow. Today, that would
be the 12Z NAM, which continues to move a surface low on a track
much closer to the coast. The NAM solution would bring the deeper
moisture farther west where the slower mid/upper forcing can act
upon it...while cold air remains in place to the NW of the low
track...right across the heart of the GSP fcst area along the I-85
corridor. For those readers that have access to forecast soundings,
the wow factor can be seen in the NAM fcst soundings at GSP and CLT,
which show a deep isothermal layer resulting in a period of heavy
wet snow on Tuesday morning as the low passes. As a result, the
NAM cranks out 3-4 inches of wet snow at GSP
Click to expand...
Yeah it’s getting inside that timeframe where they can’t keep discounting it. I don’t blame them for holding off. April snow? Yeah right. Need the NAM to keep holding serve
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
GSP beginning to believe...

every now and then, something comes along
in the model guidance to make you go...wow. Today, that would
be the 12Z NAM, which continues to move a surface low on a track
much closer to the coast. The NAM solution would bring the deeper
moisture farther west where the slower mid/upper forcing can act
upon it...while cold air remains in place to the NW of the low
track...right across the heart of the GSP fcst area along the I-85
corridor. For those readers that have access to forecast soundings,
the wow factor can be seen in the NAM fcst soundings at GSP and CLT,
which show a deep isothermal layer resulting in a period of heavy
wet snow on Tuesday morning as the low passes. As a result, the
NAM cranks out 3-4 inches of wet snow at GSP
Click to expand...

This is my favorite line, echoing most everyone's sentiment here.

"The question remains...where was this system back in February?"
 
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