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Wintry April Fools? (1-2) Surprise Storm

Euro will be telling seeming as it dropped 3-4 inches on 18z ... overnight and early morning runs will be fun to wake up too... will be able to look at HRRR in the long range tomorrow too
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Euro will be telling seeming as it dropped 3-4 inches on 18z ... overnight and early morning runs will be fun to wake up too... will be able to look at HRRR in the long range tomorrow too
Click to expand...

I’m assuming that the hrrr will probably suck and show all rain, due to how bad it has been with in-situ CAD domes and has been way to light with overrunning precip/ precip in general
 
After the 18Z GFS had the SE most track of Sunday GFS runs, the 0Z GFS has come back NW to about the 12Z GFS track. Also, the 0Z GEFS mean track is the furthest NW of the last 4 GEFS means.
 
I also really like how every euro run usually looks very similar to it’s most recent eps runs .. it’s done it consecutively ... will be interesting to see EPS and then tomrroow morning around 8 we will have a lot of hopefully fun days to dive into (including the HRRR)
 
From GSP AFD:
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 229 PM Sunday...every now and then, something comes along
in the model guidance to make you go...wow. Today, that would
be the 12Z NAM, which continues to move a surface low on a track
much closer to the coast. The NAM solution would bring the deeper
moisture farther west where the slower mid/upper forcing can act
upon it...while cold air remains in place to the NW of the low
track...right across the heart of the GSP fcst area along the I-85
corridor. For those readers that have access to forecast soundings,
the wow factor can be seen in the NAM fcst soundings at GSP and CLT,
which show a deep isothermal layer resulting in a period of heavy
wet snow on Tuesday morning as the low passes. As a result, the
NAM cranks out 3-4 inches of wet snow at GSP, which is ten times
the highest amount on record for April snow at that location, and
would be the first measurable snow in April since 1987. Ordinarily,
I would just pass this off as another wintry pipe dream, but the
latest ECMWF looks eerily similar with its low track and precip
shield, but with a slightly warmer temperature profile. All that
being said, the most prudent course of action would be to take
a blend of precip probability from the guidance envelope, which
brings a chance up from the south late Monday night and then carries
the chance across mainly the I-85/I-77 corridors and south/east
through the afternoon. A temperature blend would be unseasonably
cool, but yet warm enough that only a cold rain would fall in
most locations. Some high elevations could get some wet snow,
but the chance of precip will be slight. The precip should taper
off across the entire region by sunset on Tuesday. The question
remains...where was this system back in February
 
Nicole Papay going with flurries mixed in , maybe! Said ground temps will not allow ANY accumulations! ?
 
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