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Wintry April Fools? (1-2) Surprise Storm

Webb don’t u think it’s weird how some of euros ensemble members are so widespread with the snow ... I haven’t seen something like that on any short range ... hoping that changes lol ...The key is also going to be cold air verification ... big part along with dew points and all that fun stuff
 
Most of the forcing for ascent in this setup will be tied to cyclonic vorticity advection. Notice how the vort max weakens as it comes east across central NC. This is one reason (among a few others like slightly less favorable diurnal timing, warm air being advected aloft near the Triangle, etc.) why any wet snow has a difficult time moving east of the I-85 corridor.

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Clouds kept my low from really dropping! Hit 36, should have been low 30s! Every degree counts in April snow!!
 
When you’ve got the NAM, GFSv3, and Euro on board, somebody’s getting rained on!!??
 
April snow is probably equivalent to November snow!? And remember when Irmo jackpotted with 4-5” on the Halloween storm in 14!? This will be fun to watch
 
Tarheel1 said:
April snow is probably equivalent to November snow!? And remember when Irmo jackpotted with 4-5” on the Halloween storm in 14!? This will be fun to watch
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The exceptionally strong ULL that triggered the Oct 31-Nov 1 2014 snow in the midlands is more analogous anomaly-wise to getting snow in early May. This storm is definitely late in the season, but not terribly unusual in the grand scheme of things, the 2014 event in central SC is on a whole other level of extreme
 
Latest 3km is not too shabby.

Has 2-3 inches falling in Upstate SC.D5B46FD5-174E-4F75-9FB6-FBC847C66B6B.jpeg

But only 1-1.5 of that sticks. Surface temps will be 32-35 and ground temps in this area are 45-50. We will need moderate snow for a few hrs to see a lot of accumulation. Either way snow is always fun to watch fall!

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Rooting for you guys that are in the mix! Hoping you see some big flakes fly!
 
Here's the 6z ECMWF, slightly more snow overall w/ a 5" max just SE of GSP in upstate SC. We'll lose a lot of this 10:1 liquid equivalent snow to lower ratios, compaction, melting, solar insolation, upward longwave fluxes from the ground, & potential mixing w/ rain, etc.

Cut these totals by about 60-70% for these aforementioned reasons and you probably have a more realistic idea of the potential here. Slushy 1-2" of accumulation possible in/around GSP & Charlotte. With an orographic assist, there could be some accumulation even back towards the Blue Ridge.
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One thing that hasn't been talked about with this system is the wind it will generate for coastal areas. As it quickly strengthens and pulls away, areas along the Outer Banks could see winds in the 40-55kt range. Nothing major but I don't think coastal residents are aware of how windy it may be Tuesday afternoon/evening.
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Overall if I were in upstate SC or western NC I would be excited about the prospect of seeing snow falling but also very reserved in my expectations. There are a few things I don't particularly like about this setup that could really limit things.

1. The qpf that makes it this far west appears to be light and brief with a sharp cutoff in the .5" to .1" amounts. This leaves VERY little margin for error and if the precip isn't quite as heavy or struggles to make it this far NW there might not even be any snow or just brief flurries.

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2. Surface temps will be in the 34-37 range (and upper 30s to low 40s a few hours later for areas in western nc) for most areas that have a chance to see snow. With fairly warm ground temps and the bulk of the precip moving through after 8am the sun will also be in play here and limit accumulations.
3km nam .jpg

3. The bulk of the RGEM members keep the precip confined to areas further east and the few that do get it into upstate SC and Western NC have a VERY BRIEF period of rain/snow mix. The RGEM itself is usually a bit colder than other models and it's only showing an inch max using the Kuchera method.
rgem .jpg

The only really bullish models at this point are the Euro and 12km/32km NAM versions. The models that I trust most to resolve the temp issues and other things all point to a dusting to an inch max for those areas that do see snow. I think at this point if I were living in Western NC or SC I'd be ecstatic about the chance to see some flakes flying but I wouldn't be expecting much if anything to actually accumulate. Hopefully this one will over-perform but these are the red flags I see at this stage that could indicate disappointment with this one.
 
snowlover91 said:
Overall if I were in upstate SC or western NC I would be excited about the prospect of seeing snow falling but also very reserved in my expectations. There are a few things I don't particularly like about this setup that could really limit things.

1. The qpf that makes it this far west appears to be light and brief with a sharp cutoff in the .5" to .1" amounts. This leaves VERY little margin for error and if the precip isn't quite as heavy or struggles to make it this far NW there might not even be any snow or just brief flurries.

View attachment 18285

2. Surface temps will be in the 34-37 range (and upper 30s to low 40s a few hours later for areas in western nc) for most areas that have a chance to see snow. With fairly warm ground temps and the bulk of the precip moving through after 8am the sun will also be in play here and limit accumulations.
View attachment 18286

3. The bulk of the RGEM members keep the precip confined to areas further east and the few that do get it into upstate SC and Western NC have a VERY BRIEF period of rain/snow mix. The RGEM itself is usually a bit colder than other models and it's only showing an inch max using the Kuchera method.
View attachment 18287

The only really bullish models at this point are the Euro and 12km/32km NAM versions. The models that I trust most to resolve the temp issues and other things all point to a dusting to an inch max for those areas that do see snow. I think at this point if I were living in Western NC or SC I'd be ecstatic about the chance to see some flakes flying but I wouldn't be expecting much if anything to actually accumulate. Hopefully this one will over-perform but these are the red flags I see at this stage that could indicate disappointment with this one.
Click to expand...

I just don't think we'll have an issue getting precipitation far enough NW in this instance.

The 3km NAM struggles to push the precipitation further inland due to convective feedback issues in the model that lead to spurious deepening of the low off the SC/NC coast that ultimately deters inland moisture transport vs the 12z NAM whose large-scale depiction of the coastal low is likely more realistic & in line w/ other models.

nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_36.png
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_36.png
 
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