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Wintry April Fools? (1-2) Surprise Storm

This is why I toss the 12km NAM and never trust it for winter events. A dramatic shift in one run, the 3km has had the right idea for awhile now.
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Ethan80963 said:
Still not worrying because most models have most of the precip focused on the eastern side of the system but on radar most precip is on the western side.
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That will change as the coastal develops and energy transfers to the coast, hence the skip/drop in precip over NW NC.
 
Eastern NC going to see some pretty stout winds....will be interesting to see if this thing can crank up enough to get a few 60-75 mph gust over the OBX....NAM is probably over done but has a lot of eastern NC 25-30, gusting 50+ even inland, still I would be surprised to see more than 40-45 away from the water.
 
Downeastnc said:
Eastern NC going to see some pretty stout winds....will be interesting to see if this thing can crank up enough to get a few 60-75 mph gust over the OBX....NAM is probably over done but has a lot of eastern NC 25-30, gusting 50+ even inland, still I would be surprised to see more than 40-45 away from the water.
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Yeah latest 3km has sustained TRopical depression type winds across Eastern NC. It will certainly be a nasty day.
 
Lol @ the panic 6 hours before go time. It’s going to snow

I don’t understand why at initialization none of the meso models look anything like radar? lol We currently have precip all the way into N AL,MS,TN, AR.. yet

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Fountainguy97 said:
Yeah latest 3km has sustained TRopical depression type winds across Eastern NC. It will certainly be a nasty day.
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Yeah NAM 3k peaked gust in this area is 55 knts around 5pm thats overdone by a bit I think....all the other models though have it more like 40-45 so if PGV hits 45+ I will be surprised....but happy.
 
Looks almost as if this storm wants to develop a sting jet near the obx but right off the coast or am I crazy ? Scorpions tail, mid level drying and strong 850mb winds
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Lol @ the panic 6 hours before go time. It’s going to snow

I don’t understand why at initialization none of the meso models look anything like radar? lol We currently have precip all the way into N AL,MS,TN, AR.. yet

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The sim radar usually shows only precip that reaches the ground. Light batches of showers are difficult to model sometimes as well.
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah NAM 3k peaked gust in this area is 55 knts around 5pm thats overdone by a bit I think....all the other models though have it more like 40-45 so if PGV hits 45+ I will be surprised....but happy.
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Good to see you Ron. How you been? The 3km is prob overdone some but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 35-45mph gusts.
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