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Pattern Anaphylactic August

SD said:
From the lol factory got off early today. Came home and started to mow...thunder lightning and rain

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Finally getting your t'storm at the worst possible time.

That's how it goes, lol.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Finally getting your t'storm at the worst possible time.

That's how it goes, lol.
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No kidding. This storm was centered right over my neighborhood. Sun's back now maybe it'll dry the grass
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Mesoscale Discussion 1838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southern Virginia and northeastern North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231814Z - 232015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development is expected within the
next few hours, which may gradually organize and pose an increasing
risk for potentially damaging wind gusts by 4-6 PM EDT. Trends are
being monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...A gradual destabilization of the seasonably moist
boundary layer within pre-frontal surface troughing is ongoing.
Largest mixed-layer CAPE (up to 2000 J/kg), is still confined to
portions of the North Carolina piedmont and coastal plain, perhaps
into the Hampton Roads area of southeast Virginia, where
temperatures have reached or are approaching 90F. However, CAPE
appears to be in excess of 1000 J/kg ahead of the southward
advancing cold front, across much of the remainder of
central/southern Virginia, with insolation likely to contribute to
further destabilization during the next few hours.

Areas of deepening convective development are now underway, within
the the surface troughing (including around the Southern Pines NC
vicinity and southeast of Richmond VA, as well as near the southward
advancing cold front, across the higher terrain of western Virginia
(east/southeast of Hot Springs VA) eastward toward the southern
Delmarva Peninsula.

It appears that the front may provide the primary focus for
increasing thunderstorm development through 20-22Z, perhaps aided by
forcing for ascent associated with a low-amplitude mid-level wave
progressing east of the central Appalachians. A belt of 30-40 kt
westerly mid-level flow (in the 700-500 mb layer) is contributing to
modest deep layer shear along this corridor, which could promote the
the gradual upscale growth of an organizing cluster of storms posing
increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/23/2019
 
SD said:
No kidding. This storm was centered right over my neighborhood. Sun's back now maybe it'll dry the grass
b30a4d8810a2a5deb1537f24c128158f.jpg


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Overs win!
 
My mom texting me and said it's storming in Wake Forest, but nothing yet at my office in north Raleigh.
 
Well SBCAPE is through the roof, mid level lapse rates are increasing, some shear along the border..... just waiting for the fuse to be lit. Could be an interesting afternoon
 
metwannabe said:
Well SBCAPE is through the roof, mid level lapse rates are increasing, some shear along the border..... just waiting for the fuse to be lit. Could be an interesting afternoon
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It's been pretty quiet so far. Yesterday we were getting storms and warnings already at this time. Maybe it's just taking a little longer to get going today for some reason.
 
There is a good line of storms from Smithfield to Laurinburg. And some big storms in SC, too, near Sumter, Orangeburg, and Conway. Wonder if the action is going to be further south than forecasted.
 
Solid corridor of SIGSVR numbers ranging from 15-30k, those areas have the best chance of damaging winds as storms develop even further as they sag south, since these storms are right on the southern belt of the best deep layer shear, some storms may organize with some ventilation from increased 6km shear and may allow some supercellular structures with some FFD structure and RFD bursts, altho a somewhat organized multicellular cluster driven by outflow looks more likely F8B1724E-2D1C-4D73-85F8-ACBCBD9B8FEA.jpeg
 
The big wet is going to turn into the big dry it seems for most of upstate SC. Less coverage of storms than forecast so far in this area today and it looks like tonight may be a bust too. Tomorrow and Sunday look to be much drier than earlier thought too. If not for that fluke shower yesterday we would be going through this so called wet period without 1 drop of rain it seems.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Southeast

The dryness continues to spread over the southeast and this will be the big weather news as we go on through fall.
 
JHS said:
The big wet is going to turn into the big dry it seems for most of upstate SC. Less coverage of storms than forecast so far in this area today and it looks like tonight may be a bust too. Tomorrow and Sunday look to be much drier than earlier thought too. If not for that fluke shower yesterday we would be going through this so called wet period without 1 drop of rain it seems.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Southeast

The dryness continues to spread over the southeast and this will be the big weather news as we go on through fall.
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Didn't you get an inch of rain earlier in the week?

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SD said:
Didn't you get an inch of rain earlier in the week?

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Yeah we did get that but we seem to not be able to get anything out of the major events. Today through Sunday was supposed to be when almost everyone got between 2-3 inches of rain but now that seems unlikely. I have my doubts about a cooler weekend down here too. From Charlotte north though it'll be another story. Enjoy the 2 much cooler days NC friends.
 
Nothing at all yet my way. Wonder if the watch jinx is in effect again for me.
 
SD said:
I'm actually thinking the 2 maximums are at the borders between 40/Va and 74/SC with the minimum in the middle. I wouldn't be at all surprised to get 0, the front is slowing just enough that we are really relying on the outflow as the main driver. If that doesn't kick things off around or shortly after dark the front timing will be terribly bad

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Boy this turned out to be a pretty good call.

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Looking like a dud up this way, not complaining I picked up 1.14 yesterday

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About to get a round of severe storms, storm right at the border definitely has near severe winds, these 2 will likely converge into a bigger multicellular cluster C2A4AC8D-B4C1-480E-A0F4-B4BCD9E10751.jpeg
 
WRAL saying the storms should be coming down here from VA.

A line of storms starting to build with the front in Southern Virginia is beginning to move to the south into our northern counties in North Carolina. This line will ignite with storms that may become severe. If the line is slow in moving south then we will have the potential for some localized flooding.

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This storm over Halifax County in Southern Virginia is severe and is moving to the southeast at 25 mph. It will be moving into Person County shortly so a warning may be issued for the Roxboro and surrounding communities. @WRALWeather

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We are watching two outflow boundaries that are destined to collide across the Triangle shortly. This could be another catalyst to spark widespread showers and storms over the next few hours. The concern is that this boundary will get stuck and heavy rain could sit over the same spot for some time. This could result in flooding. We will watch and wait! @WRALWeather

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Brick Tamland said:
We are watching two outflow boundaries that are destined to collide across the Triangle shortly. This could be another catalyst to spark widespread showers and storms over the next few hours. The concern is that this boundary will get stuck and heavy rain could sit over the same spot for some time. This could result in flooding. We will watch and wait! @WRALWeather

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Of course.

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metwannabe said:
Looking like a dud up this way, not complaining I picked up 1.14 yesterday

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Well I was wrong, escalated quickly, my station has 1.45 seems very accurate and it's still pouring
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At a concert again tonight at Walnut Creek in Raleigh. There is an awesome lightning show going on in the distance.
 
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