That 2012 tornado had no tornado warning on it either. A rare miss by GSP that morning.
4/24/20-4/26/20 possible severe weather
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
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How’s this thread looking now that the other one is increasing?
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The last few Euro runs look very problematic for the Carolinas...
1000-2000+ j/kg CAPE w/ 60-80 kts of deep layer shear could spell big trouble. Odds are the warm sector will be stronger and further north on Saturday vs Thursday given the lack of preceding overrunning convection & cool/stable air that our system on Thu has to overcome in order to put much of the SE US in the warm sector.
1000-2000+ j/kg CAPE w/ 60-80 kts of deep layer shear could spell big trouble. Odds are the warm sector will be stronger and further north on Saturday vs Thursday given the lack of preceding overrunning convection & cool/stable air that our system on Thu has to overcome in order to put much of the SE US in the warm sector.
Saturday afternoon sounding for mby from the gfs. Euro is a little slower and isn't as robust with the moisture return but I personally want no part of this one. Winds will be supportive its just a matter of moisture return and timing
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I still don’t like the look on this one, often times when globals already show moderate instability, your gonna get higher in time for the meso models, and those critical angles look good, just LLvL shear ain’t to impressive 
Low level helicity on the second one is close. If I remember right, at least for AL concern goes, the threshold for significant problems LLH wise is ~ 250. I remember that number when FG and myself discussed AL tornadoes over a decade ago, so don't quote me on that.
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Brick Tamland
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Yikes, looks like we have to look out for this one up my way. I was hoping we were going to be able to dodge all the severe chances this week.
Look at that wind field on the Euro for Saturday. Hopefully its right and moisture return and instability are lacking
The way these threats evaporate for us I wont hold my breath.
Well this one will have a decent supply of CAPE, and no storms undercutting WAA like the one tommorow, in my opinion this may be our highest CAPE setup this year
Taken literally this is one of those rare environments that could support golfball-baseball sized hail around here.
Hodographs are quite similar to what was observed with those large hail events last night/this morning in Oklahoma, CAPE looks the same or even perhaps a little better, definitely a attention grabber for some very large hail
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Brick Tamland
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Funny how this threat seems bigger around here based on the models than tomorrow's threat, but the SPC has us under a level 3 threat tomorrow. Guess we'll see which one is the real deal.
Did you accidentally post the wrong sounding? Those Lat / Long coordinate to an area along the GA / SC Border.
Yeah those quarter turn, long, straight, zonally elongated hodos coupled w/ large CAPE are usually a big yikes for large hail
This is in upstate SC, the overall environment wasn't that much different if you clicked in southern NC.