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4/24/20-4/26/20 possible severe weather

ryan1234 said:
Soundings, at least on the GFS don't scream an outbreak which is odd, given the setup.
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This setup looks different, might not be much tornadoes, but this setup already looks good for large hail/damaging wind potential given the unidirectional flow/straight hodographs and larger amounts of instability, if I was a betting man I would say this would likely be some type of linear convection setup 81EC42FA-6E6F-4AF9-8F7B-DAE4C1A19279.png19A5A7DE-1F54-403D-A998-83297331AF58.png
 
Kinda think with that look at H5 that soundings would be more scary, that’s a nasty broad negatively tilted trof E518AF7F-5B14-43FE-8373-00C80E75B01F.pngE5CFFFDD-1176-48A8-BC8C-FB0CDABA7807.png124A2912-151A-406B-9A59-1319B11BDA73.png
 

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If this wave slows down & digs even just a little bit, we might be in big trouble. On the other hand, if it's just a hair more progressive/flat, it's a nothingburger, there's almost no room for anything in between here. Low-level instability & CAPE will be the limiting factor to any severe imo.

Crazy to think we're basically blind and this thing is <5 days out

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BufordWX said:
Gefs members showing a wide range of options. Some look worse the others. (members 7 and 18 for example)View attachment 39945
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Basically about what I thought I'd see. Some members with no precip, others implying another full-scale severe weather outbreak and we have less than 5 days to figure this out.

Awesome
 
Webberweather53 said:
Basically about what I thought I'd see. Some members with no precip, others implying another full-scale severe weather outbreak and we have less than 5 days to figure this out.

Awesome
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Don’t like what I’m seeing, some members show a wedge front/backdoor cold front ranging around the NC/SC border all the way up to VA, even bigger yay, we better hope this thing trends more progressive but with our luck in 2020....
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Don’t like what I’m seeing, some members show a wedge front/backdoor cold front ranging around the NC/SC border all the way up to VA, even bigger yay, we better hope this thing trends more progressive but with our luck in 2020....
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Wedge fronts have put down some memorable tornados before.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Setup this past February had a wedge front and barely instability, yet dropped a handful of tornadoes localized around CLT
Also can recall the one in my county in 2012 and actually saw some of the damage myself
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Its similar to thundersnow or huge hail. You may not see it often but you sure won't forget it if you do. I have seen wedge fronts wreak havoc with the piedmont on a couple of occasions and they can be very deceptive. Not my neck of the woods but I cringe when I hear of a setup with a wedge front and potential tornados.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Setup this past February had a wedge front and barely instability, yet dropped a handful of tornadoes localized around CLT
Also can recall the one in my county in 2012 and actually saw some of the damage myself
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Yup. I will never forget the Reedy Creek tornado. Pretty strong EF2 as well. It flattened a couple of homes and did significant damage to a lot of others. The worst thing that it was poorly warned. Much like the Chattanooga tornado 2 weeks ago.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Setup this past February had a wedge front and barely instability, yet dropped a handful of tornadoes localized around CLT
Also can recall the one in my county in 2012 and actually saw some of the damage myself
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That 2012 tornado had no tornado warning on it either. A rare miss by GSP that morning.
 
How’s this thread looking now that the other one is increasing?


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The last few Euro runs look very problematic for the Carolinas...

1000-2000+ j/kg CAPE w/ 60-80 kts of deep layer shear could spell big trouble. Odds are the warm sector will be stronger and further north on Saturday vs Thursday given the lack of preceding overrunning convection & cool/stable air that our system on Thu has to overcome in order to put much of the SE US in the warm sector.

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Saturday afternoon sounding for mby from the gfs. Euro is a little slower and isn't as robust with the moisture return but I personally want no part of this one. Winds will be supportive its just a matter of moisture return and timing



gfs_2020042112_102_35.25--79.0.png
 
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I still don’t like the look on this one, often times when globals already show moderate instability, your gonna get higher in time for the meso models, and those critical angles look good, just LLvL shear ain’t to impressive 71BA4DBD-C51F-4C43-9F36-8A5287D19761.gif11CAA08B-2E38-4CCB-AACA-B760334D27D4.pngF1188DE6-0F3C-4F02-A6BD-5A4075988DC1.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I still don’t like the look on this one, often times when globals already show moderate instability, your gonna get higher in time for the meso models, and those critical angles look good, just LLvL shear ain’t to impressive View attachment 40058View attachment 40059View attachment 40061
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Low level helicity on the second one is close. If I remember right, at least for AL concern goes, the threshold for significant problems LLH wise is ~ 250. I remember that number when FG and myself discussed AL tornadoes over a decade ago, so don't quote me on that.
 
Yikes, looks like we have to look out for this one up my way. I was hoping we were going to be able to dodge all the severe chances this week.
 
Gfs still showed solid soundings here Saturday, best shelf cloud sounding of the year AD30C21C-C6B0-4068-862B-345CE2BF5BD2.png
 
Shaggy said:
The way these threats evaporate for us I wont hold my breath.
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Well this one will have a decent supply of CAPE, and no storms undercutting WAA like the one tommorow, in my opinion this may be our highest CAPE setup this year
 
Webberweather53 said:
Taken literally this is one of those rare environments that could support golfball-baseball sized hail around here.
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Hodographs are quite similar to what was observed with those large hail events last night/this morning in Oklahoma, CAPE looks the same or even perhaps a little better, definitely a attention grabber for some very large hail
 
Funny how this threat seems bigger around here based on the models than tomorrow's threat, but the SPC has us under a level 3 threat tomorrow. Guess we'll see which one is the real deal.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hodographs are quite similar to what was observed with those large hail events last night/this morning in Oklahoma, CAPE looks the same or even perhaps a little better, definitely a attention grabber for some very large hail
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Yeah those quarter turn, long, straight, zonally elongated hodos coupled w/ large CAPE are usually a big yikes for large hail
 
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