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Severe 4/12 - (?) Severe Weather

NWMSGuy said:
Wouldn't be surprised to see a Day 3 Moderate issued overnight with what we are already seeing with regards to some of the parameters.
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Depends on how consistent this late night Tuesday early morning wensday MCS storm system is forecasted and moves through Mississippi and Alabama. Last time we had one move through it lasted until about 10 or 11 o'clock in the late morning early afternoon which didn't give enough time to destablize and clear clouds out.

Probably the most crucial proponent right now. Looking at the 21z rap and 18z NAM doesn't paint a pretty picture. Probably the highest ceiling in terms of tornado event so far this season in the southeast, other than the Georgia south Carolina one which was pretty good.
 
Also, your probably going to be looking at a huge spike in instability forecast once CAMS get in range. Again that north Mississippi area is going to be a hot bed.

At the end of the 18z 3km nam your nearing 2000j at midnight in north Mississippi of course the atmosphere is capped, also the precip mass is moving through at midnight giving plenty of time for it to move out and give your lots of clearing in that region. You'll likely have widespread 3000+ sbcape in Mississippi during the timeframe for severe storms...

To top it off nam 3km has the MCS breaking down when it gets to the delta at midnight which is worrisome don't want a boundary setting up near the delta for later in the day.
 
Lots of talk on Tuesday and Wednesday and rightfully so, but don’t sleep on tomorrow. 0z HRRR likes the idea of discrete supercell action over parts of AR tomorrow evening particularly the western half of the state. Although it should be noted that previous runs were a bit further east with storms.

IMO there could be some big time hail producers with these as well as a few tornadoes possible as well. Wouldn’t be shocked to see an upgrade to enhanced for this area for increasing large hail potential.76DBD503-5A40-49A2-8346-4343CD7969D3.png
 
BufordWX said:
Lots of talk on Tuesday and Wednesday and rightfully so, but don’t sleep on tomorrow. 0z HRRR likes the idea of discrete supercell action over parts of AR tomorrow evening particularly the western half of the state. Although it should be noted that previous runs were a bit further east with storms.

IMO there could be some big time hail producers with these as well as a few tornadoes possible as well. Wouldn’t be shocked to see an upgrade to enhanced for this area for increasing large hail potential.View attachment 117086
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One thing I do remember about plains severe weather is that it seems the “pre-event” takes the cake so Id really watch this.
 
Nws notes they held off on a moderate risk for day 3 because of uncertainty with the morning storms across the south.
 
NWMSGuy said:
9 STP over Northwest MS. ?
View attachment 117091
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Impressive hodograph one of the better ones this year, would like the 500mb to be more westerly, but a broken type qcls or a few hours of discreet convection before congealing is still really concerning. Low level instability is low along with low level lapse rates and possibily elevated but I'm hesitant in taking that for gospel at this point, models are flipping from 8+ to 6 surface to 3km lapse rates and depending on the morning storms if they clear out before sunlight youll be in a good position for clearing skies and rising surface lapse rates. Other than that pretty impressive setup for the southeast. I still think 2000 sbcape is going to be a good bit underestimating on what the actual instability will be though.
 
Last Month also featured a Squall Line in Dixie Alley, but it broke up into Discrete Supercells that wouldn't stop producing tornadoes.
 
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Yeah that morning system is long gone, hrrr has it out of there by 3 or 4 in the morning
 
Zander98al said:
Yeah that morning system is long gone, hrrr has it out of there by 3 or 4 in the morning
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Could be looking at this wrong but it appears the 12Z HRRR has the early storms out late Tuesday for my area. If that is the case, this may be going moderate soon.
 
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