What about Oklahoma?
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Severe 4/12 - (?) Severe Weather
- Thread starter Iceresistance
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe
tennessee storm
Member
Like eastern Oklahoma especially , get well classic dry line established just off west
The SPC did upgrade parts of MO to a slight risk and expanded the marginal risk southwest towards our areas in the latest day 2 outlook. Will be highly conditional on if the cap breaks, but still interesting nonetheless.
Holding for storms in this severe outbreak to form some classic tornados but hopefully over bare population-less land so we can bask in the beauty of them without the damage and loss of life
What the actual Shrimp?!
The SPC has a pretty large hatched 30% risk area for Tuesday, stretching from DFW northward to Des Moines / Omaha.
What the actual Shrimp?!
Where is this location?
tennessee storm
Member
Even has a larger one for day 4 Wednesday…
NE Wichita
One of the largest I've ever seen, a High risk is theoretically possible in the Southern Mississippi River Valley.
Also, my Storm Shelter is ready
NWMSGuy
Member
HSVweather
Member
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah. Besides tornado threat , large to very large hail is starting become factory with nearly lapse rates off chart with this system .
Local met from KFOR
Z
Zander98al
Guest
That Mississippi Arkansas Louisiana border is intriguing for day 4.
tennessee storm
Member
Strong tornado or even a violent long tracker look s like area of nw mss / sw tenn se Arkansas where better shear meets up with cape values pushing 2000
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Also that plains event not quite sure it's going to be a mega tornado event, your going to see some absolutely massive hail though but, I think the magnitude of the tornado threat is still in question. At this point, just glancing at Low level lapse rates. There pretty low again I don't know a whole lot about plains weather events but seen time and time again in the south where poor lapse rates really cut off tornado potential.
Color me stupid, but your higher confidence tornado event looks to be over the southeast on day 4. Higher ceiling is in the plains but your higher confidence tornado potential at this point is the southeast. But even so it's probably going to be messy and semi linear in the south with your typical prefrontal cells and your messy line producing some decent spinners.
Color me stupid, but your higher confidence tornado event looks to be over the southeast on day 4. Higher ceiling is in the plains but your higher confidence tornado potential at this point is the southeast. But even so it's probably going to be messy and semi linear in the south with your typical prefrontal cells and your messy line producing some decent spinners.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
All depends on your cap, 3km nam is pretty solid on it FV3 (Supercell printer) is not. But you can kinda gauge your possibilities with those two.
Nam 3km is typically to aggressive with the CAP, I’d go with the HRW in this situation