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Severe 4/12 - (?) Severe Weather

NWMSGuy said:
Wouldn't be surprised to see a Day 3 Moderate issued overnight with what we are already seeing with regards to some of the parameters.
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Depends on how consistent this late night Tuesday early morning wensday MCS storm system is forecasted and moves through Mississippi and Alabama. Last time we had one move through it lasted until about 10 or 11 o'clock in the late morning early afternoon which didn't give enough time to destablize and clear clouds out.

Probably the most crucial proponent right now. Looking at the 21z rap and 18z NAM doesn't paint a pretty picture. Probably the highest ceiling in terms of tornado event so far this season in the southeast, other than the Georgia south Carolina one which was pretty good.
 
Also, your probably going to be looking at a huge spike in instability forecast once CAMS get in range. Again that north Mississippi area is going to be a hot bed.

At the end of the 18z 3km nam your nearing 2000j at midnight in north Mississippi of course the atmosphere is capped, also the precip mass is moving through at midnight giving plenty of time for it to move out and give your lots of clearing in that region. You'll likely have widespread 3000+ sbcape in Mississippi during the timeframe for severe storms...

To top it off nam 3km has the MCS breaking down when it gets to the delta at midnight which is worrisome don't want a boundary setting up near the delta for later in the day.
 
Lots of talk on Tuesday and Wednesday and rightfully so, but don’t sleep on tomorrow. 0z HRRR likes the idea of discrete supercell action over parts of AR tomorrow evening particularly the western half of the state. Although it should be noted that previous runs were a bit further east with storms.

IMO there could be some big time hail producers with these as well as a few tornadoes possible as well. Wouldn’t be shocked to see an upgrade to enhanced for this area for increasing large hail potential.76DBD503-5A40-49A2-8346-4343CD7969D3.png
 
BufordWX said:
Lots of talk on Tuesday and Wednesday and rightfully so, but don’t sleep on tomorrow. 0z HRRR likes the idea of discrete supercell action over parts of AR tomorrow evening particularly the western half of the state. Although it should be noted that previous runs were a bit further east with storms.

IMO there could be some big time hail producers with these as well as a few tornadoes possible as well. Wouldn’t be shocked to see an upgrade to enhanced for this area for increasing large hail potential.View attachment 117086
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One thing I do remember about plains severe weather is that it seems the “pre-event” takes the cake so Id really watch this.
 
Nws notes they held off on a moderate risk for day 3 because of uncertainty with the morning storms across the south.
 
NWMSGuy said:
9 STP over Northwest MS. ?
View attachment 117091
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Impressive hodograph one of the better ones this year, would like the 500mb to be more westerly, but a broken type qcls or a few hours of discreet convection before congealing is still really concerning. Low level instability is low along with low level lapse rates and possibily elevated but I'm hesitant in taking that for gospel at this point, models are flipping from 8+ to 6 surface to 3km lapse rates and depending on the morning storms if they clear out before sunlight youll be in a good position for clearing skies and rising surface lapse rates. Other than that pretty impressive setup for the southeast. I still think 2000 sbcape is going to be a good bit underestimating on what the actual instability will be though.
 
Last Month also featured a Squall Line in Dixie Alley, but it broke up into Discrete Supercells that wouldn't stop producing tornadoes.
 
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Yeah that morning system is long gone, hrrr has it out of there by 3 or 4 in the morning
 
Zander98al said:
Yeah that morning system is long gone, hrrr has it out of there by 3 or 4 in the morning
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Could be looking at this wrong but it appears the 12Z HRRR has the early storms out late Tuesday for my area. If that is the case, this may be going moderate soon.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Could be looking at this wrong but it appears the 12Z HRRR has the early storms out late Tuesday for my area. If that is the case, this may be going moderate soon.
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Nah it has it exiting the state around 3 or 4 in the morning on wensday and then prime time for the afternoon stuff on wensday. They may upgrade by the 18z outlook today will see though. The morning convection is looking way less likely to be a issue.
 
Zander98al said:
Nah it has it exiting the state around 3 or 4 in the morning on wensday and then prime time for the afternoon stuff on wensday. They may upgrade by the 18z outlook today will see though. The morning convection is looking way less likely to be a issue.
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In fact it will probably help tornado chances later, creating a substantial cold pool aloft, boundaries? over Mississippi divergence aloft and Mississippi squarely in the exit region of the trough, usually after a storm system in the morning clouds will typically clear out in that area, your looking at your most significant tornado chances of the year for Mississippi. In terms of actual supercell tornadoes. QCLS tornadoes won't be able to beat that system that had a ton of spin ups last month. Lapse rates are very steep with very unstable atmosphere plenty of upper air lift, favorable posistion of the exit region, cold front 600+ 3km Helicity 400+ 1km Helicity. I mean what more could you ask for really. Doubt this will just be spitting supercells but your probably going to have a mix of prefrontal warm sector storms and a broken QCLS following its trail.

This isn't your grandma's severe setup with 1000j of instability. Your going to have 3000+ in spots well enough to keep storms from shearing out.
 
Tomorrow looks scary up here ! Good chance of 2” or larger hail! And some tornadoes. I’m off so I could chase! Looks worse just to my West by a few miles!
 
Something to note the WRF has 3 separate convective MCS in 24 hours near Mississippi decaying before wensday afternoon. never seen a more opertune time to set up boundaries.
 
Looked at all the close range models and the general consensus is the same, still discrepancies in minor things but that could go along way in determining the severity of the system. The FV3 isn't far off in terms of accuracy's to what all the other short rangers are showing. But it's also the worst solution. Can't really put trust into the FV3 Until the HRRR and WRF get into the range of showing the time frame for severe weather on wensday.
 
I think your biggest overall issue wensday will be in determining where the highest threat area will setup, it's going to trouble meteorligists till they day of. Could you be looking at a mississippi delta boom? West Tennessee into east Arkansas? Or east Mississippi west Alabama being your biggest threat area. More so closer you get to Alabama the less severe it'd likely be.
 
Zander98al said:
I think your biggest overall issue wensday will be in determining where the highest threat area will setup, it's going to trouble meteorligists till they day of. Could you be looking at a mississippi delta boom? West Tennessee into east Arkansas? Or east Mississippi west Alabama being your biggest threat area. More so closer you get to Alabama the less severe it'd likely be.
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Iri be interesting to see how the Tuesday/ early Wednesday system affects convection Wednesday and what meso boundaries are left behind. We are likely to see some subsidence in the wake of the departing system but renewed forcing should eventually take over late in the day so I do wonder if the convection Wednesday will be more apt to develop along the eastern edge of the previous nights rain shield where you may have a differential heating boundary/sfc convergence or if it can be forced in that wake to the west and then move east.
 
SD said:
Iri be interesting to see how the Tuesday/ early Wednesday system affects convection Wednesday and what meso boundaries are left behind. We are likely to see some subsidence in the wake of the departing system but renewed forcing should eventually take over late in the day so I do wonder if the convection Wednesday will be more apt to develop along the eastern edge of the previous nights rain shield where you may have a differential heating boundary/sfc convergence or if it can be forced in that wake to the west and then move east.
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Surface to 3km lapse rates will be maximized in the subsidence zone another , my thoughts is convection will probably initiate at the Louisiana/Arkansas and Mississippi border. But then again models have been insisting on a middle Mississippi initiation. Either way the Mississippi river would be a really good target zone for chasers.
 
Models have consistently shown a weak MCV tracking across East Central TX and Western LA during peak heating tomorrow, which (if legit) should help to trigger fairly extensive activity down there.

That said, it might it up leaving somewhat of a "lull" in the coverage of activity to the north of it and to the south of the areas closer to the main trough in KS / IA / NE / MO.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
Models have consistently shown a weak MCV tracking across East Central TX and Western LA during peak heating tomorrow, which (if legit) should help to trigger fairly extensive activity down there.

That said, it might it up leaving somewhat of a "lull" in the coverage of activity to the north of it and to the south of the areas closer to the main trough in KS / IA / NE / MO.
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Oh the joy of mesoscale features ?.

If your seeing that on the LR HRRR be careful this season the HRRR has be notoriously bad for changing things up when you get in that 18 hour range. But it's also been the most reliable when it comes to the finer details, out matching the WRF Models on that.
 
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