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Severe 4/12 - (?) Severe Weather

NWMSGuy said:
Could be looking at this wrong but it appears the 12Z HRRR has the early storms out late Tuesday for my area. If that is the case, this may be going moderate soon.
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Nah it has it exiting the state around 3 or 4 in the morning on wensday and then prime time for the afternoon stuff on wensday. They may upgrade by the 18z outlook today will see though. The morning convection is looking way less likely to be a issue.
 
Zander98al said:
Nah it has it exiting the state around 3 or 4 in the morning on wensday and then prime time for the afternoon stuff on wensday. They may upgrade by the 18z outlook today will see though. The morning convection is looking way less likely to be a issue.
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In fact it will probably help tornado chances later, creating a substantial cold pool aloft, boundaries? over Mississippi divergence aloft and Mississippi squarely in the exit region of the trough, usually after a storm system in the morning clouds will typically clear out in that area, your looking at your most significant tornado chances of the year for Mississippi. In terms of actual supercell tornadoes. QCLS tornadoes won't be able to beat that system that had a ton of spin ups last month. Lapse rates are very steep with very unstable atmosphere plenty of upper air lift, favorable posistion of the exit region, cold front 600+ 3km Helicity 400+ 1km Helicity. I mean what more could you ask for really. Doubt this will just be spitting supercells but your probably going to have a mix of prefrontal warm sector storms and a broken QCLS following its trail.

This isn't your grandma's severe setup with 1000j of instability. Your going to have 3000+ in spots well enough to keep storms from shearing out.
 
Tomorrow looks scary up here ! Good chance of 2” or larger hail! And some tornadoes. I’m off so I could chase! Looks worse just to my West by a few miles!
 
Something to note the WRF has 3 separate convective MCS in 24 hours near Mississippi decaying before wensday afternoon. never seen a more opertune time to set up boundaries.
 
Looked at all the close range models and the general consensus is the same, still discrepancies in minor things but that could go along way in determining the severity of the system. The FV3 isn't far off in terms of accuracy's to what all the other short rangers are showing. But it's also the worst solution. Can't really put trust into the FV3 Until the HRRR and WRF get into the range of showing the time frame for severe weather on wensday.
 
I think your biggest overall issue wensday will be in determining where the highest threat area will setup, it's going to trouble meteorligists till they day of. Could you be looking at a mississippi delta boom? West Tennessee into east Arkansas? Or east Mississippi west Alabama being your biggest threat area. More so closer you get to Alabama the less severe it'd likely be.
 
Zander98al said:
I think your biggest overall issue wensday will be in determining where the highest threat area will setup, it's going to trouble meteorligists till they day of. Could you be looking at a mississippi delta boom? West Tennessee into east Arkansas? Or east Mississippi west Alabama being your biggest threat area. More so closer you get to Alabama the less severe it'd likely be.
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Iri be interesting to see how the Tuesday/ early Wednesday system affects convection Wednesday and what meso boundaries are left behind. We are likely to see some subsidence in the wake of the departing system but renewed forcing should eventually take over late in the day so I do wonder if the convection Wednesday will be more apt to develop along the eastern edge of the previous nights rain shield where you may have a differential heating boundary/sfc convergence or if it can be forced in that wake to the west and then move east.
 
SD said:
Iri be interesting to see how the Tuesday/ early Wednesday system affects convection Wednesday and what meso boundaries are left behind. We are likely to see some subsidence in the wake of the departing system but renewed forcing should eventually take over late in the day so I do wonder if the convection Wednesday will be more apt to develop along the eastern edge of the previous nights rain shield where you may have a differential heating boundary/sfc convergence or if it can be forced in that wake to the west and then move east.
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Surface to 3km lapse rates will be maximized in the subsidence zone another , my thoughts is convection will probably initiate at the Louisiana/Arkansas and Mississippi border. But then again models have been insisting on a middle Mississippi initiation. Either way the Mississippi river would be a really good target zone for chasers.
 
Models have consistently shown a weak MCV tracking across East Central TX and Western LA during peak heating tomorrow, which (if legit) should help to trigger fairly extensive activity down there.

That said, it might it up leaving somewhat of a "lull" in the coverage of activity to the north of it and to the south of the areas closer to the main trough in KS / IA / NE / MO.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
Models have consistently shown a weak MCV tracking across East Central TX and Western LA during peak heating tomorrow, which (if legit) should help to trigger fairly extensive activity down there.

That said, it might it up leaving somewhat of a "lull" in the coverage of activity to the north of it and to the south of the areas closer to the main trough in KS / IA / NE / MO.
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Oh the joy of mesoscale features ?.

If your seeing that on the LR HRRR be careful this season the HRRR has be notoriously bad for changing things up when you get in that 18 hour range. But it's also been the most reliable when it comes to the finer details, out matching the WRF Models on that.
 
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