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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Storm5 said:
Very true . Hopefully things work in our favor with less instability and more junk convection. Even if that happens damaging wind will still be a big concern as this will be a very dynamic system


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Yep don't sleep on the wind potential here. 70-90kt at 850 50-60kt at 925, its not going to take a lot of convection to force that downward. Even if we get lucky and somehow we don't see a number of supercells a well developed line of storms is going to have the potential for a widespread wind damage event.
 
I think upstate sc western nc and maybe extreme ne Georgia will luck out. With this line coming between 3am and 7am Monday morning don’t get me wrong tornado threat is there but stp levels are between 1-2. However west of those areas and east of those areas stp is higher. My point is some people may be spared by the timing of this line.


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Gut feeling says west of 65 is going to be the bullseye. I have a feeling East AL and GA will luck out with this system. Just a Gut feeling.
 
Whoa check out that bow echo.

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Dewpoint Dan said:
Gut feeling says west of 65 is going to be the bullseye. I have a feeling East AL and GA will luck out with this system. Just a Gut feeling.
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I ve got some concerns with the clearing/thinning that keeps showing down near Selma-Montgomery.. Historiy time and again is that cells that in that area get real nasty quickly.. With flow they would get carried into GA along the "Us 29/GA 34 Tornado Alley"...
 
gawxnative said:
I ve got some concerns with the clearing/thinning that keeps showing down near Selma-Montgomery.. Historiy time and again is that cells that in that area get real nasty quickly.. With flow they would get carried into GA along the "Us 29/GA 34 Tornado Alley"...
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Add to that the very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.... that provides even more moisture and instability, and quicker.
 
gawxnative said:
I ve got some concerns with the clearing/thinning that keeps showing down near Selma-Montgomery.. Historiy time and again is that cells that in that area get real nasty quickly.. With flow they would get carried into GA along the "Us 29/GA 34 Tornado Alley"...
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12z HRRR sounding for Newnan at 21z Sunday:

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Perhaps the only saving grace is that there's a fairly deep cap (granted fairly weak) between 850mb and 650mb., which when combined with the nebulous forcing along the warm front, should keep the coverage / intensity of the convection at bay.
 
cd2play said:
Add to that the very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.... that provides even more moisture and instability, and quicker.
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Overall Instability isn't the issue. The issue is can the warm air aloft be overcome despite the very strong shear. Meager low level lapse rates with strong shear is a killer and you end up with a bunch of bumbling unorganized showers before the QLCS. If it can that is where the big uptick in risk rises.
 
Way that warm front comes in reminds of of that 2012 setup that produced a tornado in cabarrus county NC
 
Arcc said:
Overall Instability isn't the issue. The issue is can the warm air aloft be overcome despite the very strong shear. Meager low level lapse rates with strong shear is a killer and you end up with a bunch of bumbling unorganized showers before the QLCS. If it can that is where the big uptick in risk rises.
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Last night's WRF-ARW probably showed the closest thing to a worst case scenario.

It shows surface temps getting up to near 80*F as far north as the southern ATL Metro.

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This time of year always worry me when seeing low pressure with 989 , 990. And a negative tilt. Live in Mobile Home in Chattanooga, thinking about driving up toward Knoxville Sunday afternoon. I know they will be storms, but yesterdays the NWS in Morristown said the better chance was in the southern part of Tennessee around Chattanooga and southeast Tenn. Less of a tornado threat below Knoxville and south of I - 40. Keeping a watch on it for Sunday afternoon.
 
SD said:
For those in NC particularly RDU northeast don't count out Monday afternoon. If we can get updrafts going the art choked off by dry air we could see a skinny line of wind/hail after the main line Monday morning
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Yeah then soundings as the storm passes has some pretty crazy soundings here but it looks more linear so maybe less of a tornado threat. If we get any kind of broken line and some semi discrete cells then things could get interesting east of Raleigh. Especially with the slightly later timing.
 
SPC day 1 outlook has added a small hatched area to southern Texas for a strong tornado late tonight.5D52651D-C123-4CB2-A235-200A0FA6CEFD.jpeg
 
malak05 said:
Not me I live in Paulding county will be very aware and prepping tonight for worst case scenario
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I hear ya, paulding has somewhat of a reputation of being in Georgia’s tornado alley. Our home got tornado damage in the March 2012 tornado
 
Please forgive my ignorance, but I'm not sure exactly what I'm seeing with this data, but can someone tell me if this model is showing 120 kt winds with this storm?
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Dawgdaze22 said:
Who in the Atlanta or north Georgia area will not be sleeping tomorrow night?


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I’ll keep watch but most of the time storms die off once they get to Atlanta. It’s hard and rare to get a tornado event around Atlanta between that 1am - 5am timeframe. I think west and South Georgia should be worried.


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NoSnowATL said:
I’ll keep watch but most of the time storms die off once they get to Atlanta. It’s hard and rare to get a tornado event around Atlanta between that 1am - 5am timeframe. I think west and South Georgia should be worried.


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Maybe not so much South Georgia (too far removed from the better dynamics), but definitely Northwest and West-Central GA, including Southern and Western portions of Metro Atlanta.
 
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