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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Dewpoint Dan said:
I really think there are too many categories. Too confusing. Should just be slight, moderate, high risk.
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I have been saying that for a while. I would go with four, though. Slight, moderate, enhanced, and high. Slight and marginal are really the same thing. And I don't know why they have moderate as higher than enhanced when moderate means average, and enhance means to intensify and make greater than average. Maybe it would be better as slight, moderate, elevated, and high.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Wtf, this is why the LR HRRR can’t be trusted, looks like a copy and paste of its apocalyptic May 20th runs last year (the high risk that busted in OK) View attachment 38932View attachment 38933
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The real question to ask is how was the overall atmosphere modeled and handled compared to reality and projecting that time frame onto now? Is it even a similar setup?
 
Correct me if I am wrong, but I still think and believe that a lot of uncertainty remains simply because we don't commercial aircraft in the air collecting data. I know it's mentioned on here, but unfortunately, this could really have an impact on this system and many others. We're overdue for an outbreak, but that doesn't mean it's guaranteed. Remember good ole Mother Nature doesn't really abide by a calendar.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
Holy hell!! I imagine the next frame will look pretty ugly for NGA...
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Next frame actually doesn't look quite as bad, but it's still an eye opener. For it to be nighttime/early morning and there to still be a lot of coverage of STP's around 2 or higher is something.

Only takes the one that's in your neighborhood. May be a long night.
 
Really curious too see how the other CAM's show precip in the potential outbreak area. Currently theyre not to the time period ?
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Next frame actually doesn't look quite as bad, but it's still an eye opener. For it to be nighttime/early morning and there to still be a lot of coverage of STP's around 2 or higher is something.

Only takes the one that's in your neighborhood. May be a long night.
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Considering how extreme it looks before and after the threat gets here, looks like nighttime might save us from the absolute worst, but you’re right, only takes one...
 
Wow at the 0z nam... plain uglyy Large warm sector getting into west Kentucky ... if that happens we got major issues my friends ... that’s some insane wind field that area even ... per verbatim. 0z is a large tornado outbreak to be honest . What’s scary is the nam is starting get in to its wheelhouse
 
Cadi40 said:
I do find it odd how the STP in particular peaks in the CLT metro and then decreases a little after exiting.
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Climatology speaking there are 3 tornado "hotspots" in NC. The Southern Piedmont, The Triangle, and the I-95 corridor. I don't know if modeling is taking that into consideration or if it's bad luck.
 
Since this is rather serious, particularly with everything else going on, maybe we hold off on the boom/bust hopes and fears for the moment and focus on the task at hand, an accurate picture of what’s going to happen so people can prepare.....no offense meant towards anyone, just think this may be important to stay focused with this one.....
 
I do think the nam is aggressive. because 3-7am hows these storms that strong during those hours? They done lost the daytime heating


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ryan1234 said:
There have been a substantial number of outbreaks in the SE/Carolina's that occurred after midnight.
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I could see this thing dying a little. Sparing the upstate. Then blowing back up in the midlands of South Carolina. But bottom line everyone must pay attention to this one.


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Hey want to see a 4000 CAPE Sounding? (Western MS BTW)
 
Jessy89 said:
I could see this thing dying a little. Sparing the upstate. Then blowing back up in the midlands of South Carolina. But bottom line everyone must pay attention to this one.


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LLvL jet is gonna be so strong it’s gonna pump in cape, even without daytime heating there’s gonna be 750-1500jkg of SBcape, in the upstate aswell, mountains may break it up a bit but shear will keep it going
 
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