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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Rain Cold said:
ECMWFCWGF showing gusts in the 90s through NC. We know that ain't happening, but still.
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Yep that output always sucks. The High Wind Watch the NWS is discussing may be up to 80mph for the mtns with up to 60mph in the foothills. Less further east below 55mph. We have 1 more day to examine guidance before Saturday night issuance. Warnings go up Sunday PM.
 
Sweet spot appears to see up to 3” of rain combined with winds 55 to 85 mph. This is likely limited to only counties bordering the mountains and points west to TN line.
 
Zander98al said:
Thats awful??. This is from a meteorolgist at wbrc fox 6 in bhamView attachment 38843
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The first round atleast on the NAM is low topped crapvection. If the 18z NAM is right, the higher threat with the QLCS will probably be over north AL and southern TN. That is where the much higher 0-3km Cape is and the better low level lapse rates.

The 850mb upward velocity chart really helps you see "under the hood" of the sim reflectivity.

850hvv.us_se.png
 
Winds aloft around 100 mph are not far away above 2,500ft. Should easily mix down to CAT 1 wind gusts for many counties. Piedmont sits too low in elevation combined with less rain totals to need anything more than a wind advisory and tornado watch.
 
Brad P in-house model at 5am Monday has winds of 81mph in Boone. 40mph Concord to Raleigh.
 
I apologize but I have a few questions related to the timing. So first of all, if the slowing trend continues It’d be considered bad timing for the Eastern Seaboard? Also, wouldn’t riding heights delay the timing as well?
 
I am in BHM till next Saturday for work, certainly staying tuned to those who know a lot more about SVR than I do. April 2011 is my only real experience with a high tornado threat, in speaking with some of the locals today central AL may well as be central OK these days and this time of year.
 
WeatherNC said:
I am in BHM till next Saturday for work, certainly staying tuned to those who know a lot more about SVR than I do. April 2011 is my only real experience with a high tornado threat, in speaking with some of the locals today central AL may well as be central OK these days and this time of year.
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Just add low LCLs, 60-80mph storm motions, and trees in the mix ?
 
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