Mhx starting to pick a main timeframe. Mid morning to early afternoon and any delay brings it in during peak heating. We are walking a fine line and if we get this to come in after lunch time it will just have more instability to tap. For those of us east of the piedmont thats an important factor heading forward.
The strongest
WAA does not get going until late Sunday night
into Monday morning when the
gradient tightens locally and a
notably strong 50-60
kt LLJ moves over the area, bringing very
strong low level
theta-e advection. Despite the unfavorable
diurnal timing,
instability will quickly climb to 1000-1500+
J/kg early Monday with 0-6km bulk
shear around 60-70
kt and
expect a line of strong QLCS thunderstorms to push across the
area through the morning into the early afternoon which will
have the capability of producing damaging wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes. Still some uncertainty with the timing as
models have been trending slower over the past couple cycles
and any additional delay will bring storms across the area
as we approach peak heating. In addition to the severe threat,
strong
gradient winds may necessitate a wind advisory across
some coastal counties, a
high surf advisory along the coast and
coastal flooding across portions of the sounds (see
Tides/Coastal
Flooding section below for more details). Heavy
rainfall will
also be possible at times, though individual storms should be
progressive enough to preclude a widespread
flash flooding
threat. Conditions quickly improve Monday afternoon after the
line of storms moves offshore.
?
