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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

BufordWX said:
Looking at the Nam it almost looks like there could be two separate waves/lines of storms. I was listening to James Spann earlier and he even mentioned the idea of one line crossing Alabama in the Afternoon and another crossing in the evening/overnight hours.View attachment 38828
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Usually when there's 2 lines, the system is overblown on the modeling. I think there might be a bit of a bust potential in this.
 
Areas of 2 convection are likely from the intense forcing as the trough tilts negative, with these setups there almost always tends to be this area of convection that develops right out of the gulf, this activity as it starts out could pose a tornado threat (even significant), while the second line is the dominant QLCS, although that first area of convection could just be junk, but soundings around it show better streamwise vorticity in hodos while soundings ahead the the final line show hodos more straight
 
I’d suggest y’all take a look at this when it gets closer to go time
cameronnixonphotography.wordpress.com

Storm-Relative Hodograph Nowcast

Now (A thorough explanation of storm-relative hodographs can be found here!) *Image may not be current! (Floater domain updates hourly only when activity anticipated) Arrows: Approximate storm trac…
cameronnixonphotography.wordpress.com cameronnixonphotography.wordpress.com
 
BHS1975 said:
Looks like the least optimal timing is gonna save our butts on this one.


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Yeah, if this was coming in through peak heating in NC/SC, we would likely be dealing with 1500 plus jkgs of SBcape, and something way worse, but even at dark the LLVL jet looks like it’s gonna be intense with decent theta E/cape advecting in, with around 250-750 jkgs of SBcape, and nighttime carries its own issues
 
NWS New Orleans already taking this seriously per this afternoon's discussion:

"All modes of severe weather possible, if not likely, with
potential for a significant amount of severe weather. SPC
currently outlooking a 30 percent threat for about the northern
half of the area Sunday(Day 4), which equates to an Enhanced Risk.
Wouldn`t be shocked to see a Moderate Risk for portions of the
area in tomorrow`s Day 3 outlook for Sunday."
 
Shaggy said:
F-4 that missed me by 2 miles in the great 1984 outbreak hit at like 11pm. Night helps but by no means is an all clear.
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I can’t recall a nasty outbreak around here at 8am.


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Rain Cold said:
It's funny how for like 8 days in a row the models have slowed down and slowed down and the timing for the central and eastern Carolinas has always been overnight early AM.
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it’s slowed down on most major globals, including the euro
Monday’s 00z run CB6ACDE5-0B40-46DF-BACC-B16A5FC673C3.jpegtoday’s 12zAC13FE1E-B611-4C7C-99AF-259CF1AAB70A.jpeg
GFS has also slowed it down
 
Not seen it mentioned but I’m growing concerned for widespread 50 to 80mph gusts for the mountains and foothills after upslope rains saturate the ground. The biggest punch could be west of i77 with numerous power outages. I can’t foresee the impact being as severe further east outside of upslope impact but could still be embedded tornado down East too.
 
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