Looking at soundings across the SE and there scary in General, only thing I keep noticing with some soundings is lack of steep LLvL LR and lack of 3CAPE, but with such strong wind energy..
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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- severe weather tornadoes
.....You get dead, discrete updrafts.
Edit: That is poorly worded. You get updrafts that look like taffy or does limp noodle work better.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
18z nam coming out ?
Jrips2710
Member
12z Euro Mean is slightly further north and about 3-5mb deeper with the surface low 
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
JP Dice did a Facebook live a little while ago. His tone was pretty ominous. Was asked if he saw anything to limit this from be a significant event. He stressed he is usually that guy that tries to find something that would prevent a big event but stressed that with this one he just isn't seeing anything.
NAM has slightly higher heights this run ahead of the shortwave, just a little trend but still it matters 
Dawgdaze22
Member
Bigger warm sector
Dawgdaze22
Member
Christopher
Member
Yep, very strong wording from JP.
He stated it could be like April 15, 2011.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Cadi40
Member
So are chances for a significant outbreak at least in the Carolina’s going up or down at this moment in time?
Jrips2710
Member
FFC (Atlanta) doesn’t sound too concerned in their latest AFD. They seem to think things will be linear in GA
“A relatively low cape/high shear environment is expected ahead of
the cold front, allowing for a primarily linear mode of convection
associated with this system. CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, along
with low level shear values of 40-50 kts and deep layer shear of 70-
80 kts are expected. SRH values of 400-500 m2/s2 are possible ahead
of the cold front, as well. As a result, damaging wind gusts and
tornadic activity are expected to be the primary hazards with any
severe thunderstorms that occur.”
“A relatively low cape/high shear environment is expected ahead of
the cold front, allowing for a primarily linear mode of convection
associated with this system. CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, along
with low level shear values of 40-50 kts and deep layer shear of 70-
80 kts are expected. SRH values of 400-500 m2/s2 are possible ahead
of the cold front, as well. As a result, damaging wind gusts and
tornadic activity are expected to be the primary hazards with any
severe thunderstorms that occur.”
Dawgdaze22
Member
Man these are some disturbing soundings across MS, EML, solid low level instability 
and that QLCS looks scary as it heads East, that a look that supports a high end, low topped QLCS 
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Jp dice already with it. ?
mbway091
Member
The spotlight for intense, long-lived tornadoes is further to the south and west, but most models still have the Carolina's in play for some early morning severe weather with at least the possibility of tornadoes on Monday.
Seems like the danger for us in the Carolinas is not necessarily the severity, but the awkward timing when people may still be sleeping or not paying attention.
Looking at the Nam it almost looks like there could be two separate waves/lines of storms. I was listening to James Spann earlier and he even mentioned the idea of one line crossing Alabama in the Afternoon and another crossing in the evening/overnight hours.