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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather tornadoes
Snowflowxxl
Member
This might be a reason why. Maybe not too far south but just not expanded north enough
WXinCanton
Member
0z Euro
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yea that’s a much more reasonable take. The best ingredients are down south, so it’s definitely not too far south.
ICON kills this threat as it tries to head East of the NC foothills. I see some signs that eastern NC and coastal NC could end up much dryer than what’s being shown. With that said, this threat does favor the MTNS with some much needed heavy rain possibly even severe wx. ?
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Sorry I didn't clarify I feel like that 30 percent area should be expanded further north. With the 15 percent area up to atleast the al/TN border
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Didnt take long. Although it may be somewhat accurate.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Reed Timmer has arrived in the chat!! Throwing the “O” word around, par the course!
I think given the current model's and data we have, it may be warranted this time.
This is what BMX is calling for as of now.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Oh I agree. He’s just throws it around far too often. This event looks mean!
What website is that?
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Still a few days out I think we will see some adjustments northward
Shaggy
Member
Mhx is mentioning it and going into some modest details but are downplaying due to timing.
NoSnowJoe
Member
They seem to have the 15% risk area a little farther to the north then the SPC.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I’m not complaining, just observing. Since I’ve lived in the Triad (4 years) I’ve noticed that we tend to miss the severest of the sever weather. My guess is it will turn out that way with this set up, too.
Shaggy
Member
MHX
Sunday through Monday...A strong shortwave over the southern
Plains will lift toward the Great Lakes, eventually being
absorbed into a developing cutoff low Sunday into Monday. The
attendant surface low lifts from the Tennessee Valley across the
Midwest, bringing a warm front across eastern NC Sunday and
introducing POPs back into the forecast. However, the best WAA
does not get going until Sunday night into Monday morning, when
the gradient tightens locally and a notably strong 50-60 kt LLJ
moves over the area, bringing very strong low level theta-e
advection. Despite the unfavorable diurnal timing, instability
will quickly climb to 1000-1500+ J/kg, and showers with some
embedded thunderstorms are likely Monday morning. Strong
gradient winds are expected along the coast, with gusty/damaging
winds in the strongest storms possible across the entire area
as ample low level shear could allow for convection to become
organized. Some variability regarding timing remains between
long range guidance members, and the severe threat will be
further refined in subsequent forecasts. Heavy rainfall is also
possible at times, though individual storms should be
progressive enough to preclude a widespread flash flooding
threat.
Sunday through Monday...A strong shortwave over the southern
Plains will lift toward the Great Lakes, eventually being
absorbed into a developing cutoff low Sunday into Monday. The
attendant surface low lifts from the Tennessee Valley across the
Midwest, bringing a warm front across eastern NC Sunday and
introducing POPs back into the forecast. However, the best WAA
does not get going until Sunday night into Monday morning, when
the gradient tightens locally and a notably strong 50-60 kt LLJ
moves over the area, bringing very strong low level theta-e
advection. Despite the unfavorable diurnal timing, instability
will quickly climb to 1000-1500+ J/kg, and showers with some
embedded thunderstorms are likely Monday morning. Strong
gradient winds are expected along the coast, with gusty/damaging
winds in the strongest storms possible across the entire area
as ample low level shear could allow for convection to become
organized. Some variability regarding timing remains between
long range guidance members, and the severe threat will be
further refined in subsequent forecasts. Heavy rainfall is also
possible at times, though individual storms should be
progressive enough to preclude a widespread flash flooding
threat.
12z Nam has got some high STP values over Mississippi.