Webberweather53
Meteorologist
modernweenie
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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather tornadoes
I like the storm slinky part, even though it's completely over my head. (yeah, I need to learn up on severe storm stuff.. 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Last 3 days of CIPS analogs valid on Easter Sunday. As one would expect given recent NWP trends, the severe probabilities continue to tick higher & are shifting further to the NW.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Anyway, this SPC outlook is taking much longer than usual to come out, probably going to be a very long, detailed discussion, and I'd envisage we'll see a pretty respectable 30% risk area over the deep south.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 3km NAM is just starting to come into range for the day 3 slight over Texas, starts out as a threat for elevated convection Saturday afternoon, once storms go off and start mixing out the low-level cold dome along with large-scale theta-e advection off the Gulf and synoptic scale forcing for ascent, they should become surface based later on Saturday night
Jrips2710
Member
Day 4 and 5 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
New SPC outlook mentions "outbreak" potential at least 4 separate times. Take this one seriously if you haven't already.
SPC mentioning the possibility of long track supercells capable of producing strong tornados at day 4 now.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, basically what you expected given the environment at hand
Jrips2710
Member
Concerning language in the discussion indeed. I do find it interesting they dip the 15% in north Georgia. Only to bring it further north again in the Carolinas. Probably nitpicking too much but makes sense given the uncertainty on how far north destabilization goes.
Just glad we don’t have to stay up til 5am anymore for these outlooks ?
night y’all
Just glad we don’t have to stay up til 5am anymore for these outlooks ?
night y’all
I must say I’m surprised the 15% doesn’t stretch farther north or include most of the upstate. Seems like they would after the CIPS Webber keeps posting continue to show a far north extent reaching up into Kentucky. And the euro/eps look more menacing then that.
Jrips2710
Member
Think SPC is gonna wait until some of the mesoscale models come into play to pull things north. There is a lot of junkvection being modeled early on in northern areas. They probably want to see how far north ingredients are able to make it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If the primary low tracks up into the OH valley and stays near or west of the MS, the severe threat, especially for damaging winds, will extend well into the Tennessee Valley even if the CAPE isn't all the amazing
I have cleaned up the earlier mess that was made. Let’s stay on topic.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
6z 12km NAM coming into range finally for the lower MS Valley. One of the most favorable, textbook environments you'll ever see for discrete supercells & strong tornadoes, being modeled here near Mobile, AL
Still not one word from NWS Raleigh wrt severe weather. They continue to be all in on the soaking rain train. That's a little bit of a head-scratcher.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At this point, severe potential should be beyond obvious, we even have a day 5 risk in their domain...
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Will the 12z nam be in range to forecast central alabamas risk for sunday?
BHS1975
Member
Euro shows bad diurnal timing here. Maybe thats why.
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Darklordsuperstorm
Member
I feel like that 30 percent area is to far south