These soundings are scary, it’s as simple as that, Normally the NAM May over do it but even taking some things off these soundings, there still scary
Soundings from MS/AL
soundings from NC/SC
Soundings from MS/AL
soundings from NC/SC
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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather tornadoes
GSP 
I believe severe Appalachian winds (55 to 85) will quickly erode any CAD and actually help tug the severe wx northward into parts of TN/NC/KY/VA.
BufordWX
Member
WPC also putting out a moderate risk for excessive rainfall over parts of north Alabama, north Georgia, Tennessee, and into the Appalachians for Sunday.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
From nws of bhan
RAH finally makes a fleeting mention of strong to possibly severe storms around sunrise on Monday. Biggest threat appears to be up to an inch of rain in the east, with as much as 2 inches toward the Triad. Look out!!!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If you see even a coarse resolution global model consistently producing a classic loaded gun sounding like this, you're usually screwed.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Wow huge day 3 Moderate. Don’t see those very often at all. This is going to be an event people talking about for a long time...
Wow. I can’t remember seeing a moderate risk like that 48+ hours in a long long time.
Shaggy
Member
Seems they are locked into early morning as the timing and killing the severe threat with just scattered chances.
So, apparently Morehead, Wilmington, and GSP forecast areas all have elevated severe chances. But it appears there's some mysterious broad sink zone setting up over the Raleigh area, giving us partly cloudy skies with a few spring showers possible.
Tarheelwx
Member
Classic RAH. Been that way for 50 years. (But has mostly served them well.)
TW
TW
FFC is taking it serious now and has added Severe into the forecast. Here is a snippet from the AFD:
To say we`ve been in and continue to be in an active pattern the
back half of this week would be an understatement. Yet with all
Mother Nature has thrown at our area this week, she saves the
worst of it until the start of the long term.
To say we`ve been in and continue to be in an active pattern the
back half of this week would be an understatement. Yet with all
Mother Nature has thrown at our area this week, she saves the
worst of it until the start of the long term.
I just saw that they tweeted about it a short time ago and actually mentioned severe as a hazard.
RAH.. don't know anything about that office, but maybe they're more concerned about getting it right than getting it first. Nothing is lost by not sounding the alarm super early. This is still about 4 days away. No need to say "we called it first." More than ample time to inform the public.
WXinCanton
Member
Yeah, I read the AFD this morning. They are taking it seriously.
Shaggy
Member
Mhx isnt too impressed. Slow this down 6 to 8 hours and it's a different story though.
However, the best WAA does not get going until Sunday night into
Monday morning, when the gradient tightens locally and a notably
strong 40-50 kt LLJ moves over the area, bringing very strong low
level theta-e advection. Despite the unfavorable diurnal timing,
instability will quickly climb to 1000-1500+ J/kg, and showers with
some embedded thunderstorms are likely during Monday morning. Strong
gradient winds are expected along the coast, with gusty/damaging
winds in the strongest storms possible across the entire area as
ample low level shear could allow for convection to become
organized. Some variability regarding timing remains between long
range guidance members, and the severe threat will be further
refined in subsequent forecasts. Heavy rainfall is also possible at
times, though individual storms should be progressive enough to
preclude a widespread flash flooding threat.
In a way, being in quarantine may be a blessing in disguise. A lot of people spend time at churches and family/friend's houses to celebrate the holiday. At least people will be at home and ready to take action when $h!* hits the fan.
Negative. This is not an Easter storm for most on this board.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
That Birmingham AFD was downright ominous. I can't recall a QLCS being worded in that fashion. They went out of there vfc way to stress the fact that this will not be a quick spin up tornado event. Not even with the squall line.
Umm... what? Unless they moved Easter to July, it's an Easter storm for most.
This system couldn't possibly come at a worse time for GA and points East. Nighttime tornadoes are incredibly dangerous. The soundings and STP values are off the charts for this area. This isn't good.
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cd2play
Member
And with this system seemingly trending worse the closer it gets, it makes me wonder just what might actually unfold. ?
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Yeah, no way we don't see a high risk by tomorrow for the MS Valley. And I wouldn't be shocked to see the moderate risk expanded even farther east.
mbway091
Member
Well you do probably need to take these theoretical soundings with a grain of salt. A lot of forecasters avoid giving them too much weight, no? And I’d imagine we would be much worse off if this system came through during peak heating regardless.
Not that there won’t be any severe weather but the timing of it seems to be keeping the mets skeptical and I’d imagine there’s good reason for that. At least for now.
Ilovesnow28
Member
SEVERE STORMS EASTER SUNDAY: A potentially dangerous weather setup is ahead for the Deep South Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. A storm system with very strong wind fields will advance into the region, interacting with an unstable airmass. As the airmass heats and destabilizes during the afternoon, long-track supercells may evolve out of the morning convection to the west, and track northeastward into portions of Mississippi and Alabama, with a corresponding risk of strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Some upscale growth is possible with time, which would result in a corresponding widespread damaging wind risk, given extremely strong wind fields.
SPC has defined a “moderate risk” (level 4/5) for roughly the western half of the state, with an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) for the rest of the state.
SPC has defined a “moderate risk” (level 4/5) for roughly the western half of the state, with an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) for the rest of the state.
Honestly, I'd normally agree with you, but the energy associated with this system is ridiculous. This may be a rare case where the timing may make very little difference.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Most likely
Cadi40
Member
How have the trends been lately? Has the system slowed for speed up?
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
I think the only questions is do they pull the trigger on a day 2 high
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yes.
mbway091
Member
Yeah I’m definitely not discounting it and I’d imagine most of SC and a good portion of NC will be under the gun into Monday morning. Personally I’m not planning on sleeping. Or if I do I’ll take my blanket to the bathroom, cross my fingers, and have a nap in the tub.
Same here. I have no basement, and all my bathrooms are on the exterior. At least you can take some beer or wine and make the most out it!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Some really nasty analogs in there including April 27 2011. That was a bad day.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Ouch not good to see that date for analog number 2
Psalm 148:8
Member
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#2.... that ain’t good... at all